Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100
To date, projections of human migration induced by sea-level change (SLC) largely suggest large-scale displacement away from vulnerable coastlines. However, results from our model of Bangladesh suggest counterintuitively that people will continue to migrate toward the vulnerable coastline irrespecti...
| Principais autores: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Formato: | Artigo |
| Idioma: | English |
| Publicado em: |
IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
|
| coleção: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Assuntos: | |
| Acesso em linha: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdc5b |
| _version_ | 1827870380724846592 |
|---|---|
| author | A R Bell D J Wrathall V Mueller J Chen M Oppenheimer M Hauer H Adams S Kulp P U Clark E Fussell N Magliocca T Xiao E A Gilmore K Abel M Call A B A Slangen |
| author_facet | A R Bell D J Wrathall V Mueller J Chen M Oppenheimer M Hauer H Adams S Kulp P U Clark E Fussell N Magliocca T Xiao E A Gilmore K Abel M Call A B A Slangen |
| author_sort | A R Bell |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | To date, projections of human migration induced by sea-level change (SLC) largely suggest large-scale displacement away from vulnerable coastlines. However, results from our model of Bangladesh suggest counterintuitively that people will continue to migrate toward the vulnerable coastline irrespective of the flooding amplified by future SLC under all emissions scenarios until the end of this century. We developed an empirically calibrated agent-based model of household migration decision-making that captures the multi-faceted push, pull and mooring influences on migration at a household scale. We then exposed ∼4800 000 simulated migrants to 871 scenarios of projected 21st-century coastal flooding under future emissions pathways. Our model does not predict flooding impacts great enough to drive populations away from coastlines in any of the scenarios. One reason is that while flooding does accelerate a transition from agricultural to non-agricultural income opportunities, livelihood alternatives are most abundant in coastal cities. At the same time, some coastal populations are unable to migrate, as flood losses accumulate and reduce the set of livelihood alternatives (so-called ‘trapped’ populations). However, even when we increased access to credit, a commonly-proposed policy lever for incentivizing migration in the face of climate risk, we found that the number of immobile agents actually rose. These findings imply that instead of a straightforward relationship between displacement and migration, projections need to consider the multiple constraints on, and preferences for, mobility. Our model demonstrates that decision-makers seeking to affect migration outcomes around SLC would do well to consider individual-level adaptive behaviors and motivations that evolve through time, as well as the potential for unintended behavioral responses. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:57:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-b9e85d0f1e0b4b5fbefc6218712bf9a9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:57:01Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-b9e85d0f1e0b4b5fbefc6218712bf9a92023-08-09T14:53:49ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-0116202404510.1088/1748-9326/abdc5bMigration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100A R Bell0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1164-312XD J Wrathall1https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1085-6534V Mueller2https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1246-2141J Chen3https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1933-3692M Oppenheimer4https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9708-5914M Hauer5https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9390-5308H Adams6https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1732-9833S Kulp7P U Clark8E Fussell9https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2812-7719N Magliocca10https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0971-0207T Xiao11https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8751-5194E A Gilmore12https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9037-6751K Abel13M Call14A B A Slangen15https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6268-6683Department of Earth and Environment, Boston University , Boston, MA 02215, United States of America; Department of Environmental Studies, New York University , New York, NY 10012, United States of AmericaCollege of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University , Corvallis, OR 97331-5503, United States of AmericaSchool of Politics and Global Studies, Arizona State University , Tempe, AZ 85287-3902, United States of America; International Food Policy Research Institute , Washington, DC 20005, United States of AmericaDepartment of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, The Ohio State University , Columbus, OH 43210, United States of AmericaSchool of Public and International Affairs and Department of Geosciences, Princeton University , Princeton, NJ 08544-1013, United States of AmericaDepartment of Sociology, Florida State University , Tallahassee, FL 32306, United States of AmericaDepartment of Geography, King’s College London , London WC2R 2LS, United KingdomClimate Central , Princeton, NJ 08542, United States of AmericaCollege of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University , Corvallis, OR 97331-5503, United States of America; School of Geography and Environmental Sciences, University of Ulster , Coleraine, Northern Ireland BT52 1SA, United KingdomPopulation Studies and Training Center and the Institute at Brown on Environment and Society, Brown University , Providence, RI 02912, United States of AmericaDepartment of Geography, University of Alabama , Tuscaloosa, AL 35401, United States of AmericaSchool of Public and International Affairs and Department of Geosciences, Princeton University , Princeton, NJ 08544-1013, United States of AmericaDepartment of International Development, Community and Environment, Clark University , Worcester, MA 01610-1477, United States of AmericaCollege of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University , Corvallis, OR 97331-5503, United States of AmericaUSAID , Washington, DC, United States of AmericaDepartment of Estuarine and Delta Systems, NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research , Yerseke 4401 NT, The NetherlandsTo date, projections of human migration induced by sea-level change (SLC) largely suggest large-scale displacement away from vulnerable coastlines. However, results from our model of Bangladesh suggest counterintuitively that people will continue to migrate toward the vulnerable coastline irrespective of the flooding amplified by future SLC under all emissions scenarios until the end of this century. We developed an empirically calibrated agent-based model of household migration decision-making that captures the multi-faceted push, pull and mooring influences on migration at a household scale. We then exposed ∼4800 000 simulated migrants to 871 scenarios of projected 21st-century coastal flooding under future emissions pathways. Our model does not predict flooding impacts great enough to drive populations away from coastlines in any of the scenarios. One reason is that while flooding does accelerate a transition from agricultural to non-agricultural income opportunities, livelihood alternatives are most abundant in coastal cities. At the same time, some coastal populations are unable to migrate, as flood losses accumulate and reduce the set of livelihood alternatives (so-called ‘trapped’ populations). However, even when we increased access to credit, a commonly-proposed policy lever for incentivizing migration in the face of climate risk, we found that the number of immobile agents actually rose. These findings imply that instead of a straightforward relationship between displacement and migration, projections need to consider the multiple constraints on, and preferences for, mobility. Our model demonstrates that decision-makers seeking to affect migration outcomes around SLC would do well to consider individual-level adaptive behaviors and motivations that evolve through time, as well as the potential for unintended behavioral responses.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdc5bmigrationsea-level riseBangladeshagent-based modeltrapped populations |
| spellingShingle | A R Bell D J Wrathall V Mueller J Chen M Oppenheimer M Hauer H Adams S Kulp P U Clark E Fussell N Magliocca T Xiao E A Gilmore K Abel M Call A B A Slangen Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100 Environmental Research Letters migration sea-level rise Bangladesh agent-based model trapped populations |
| title | Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100 |
| title_full | Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100 |
| title_fullStr | Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100 |
| title_short | Migration towards Bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea-level rise through 2100 |
| title_sort | migration towards bangladesh coastlines projected to increase with sea level rise through 2100 |
| topic | migration sea-level rise Bangladesh agent-based model trapped populations |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abdc5b |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT arbell migrationtowardsbangladeshcoastlinesprojectedtoincreasewithsealevelrisethrough2100 AT djwrathall migrationtowardsbangladeshcoastlinesprojectedtoincreasewithsealevelrisethrough2100 AT vmueller migrationtowardsbangladeshcoastlinesprojectedtoincreasewithsealevelrisethrough2100 AT jchen migrationtowardsbangladeshcoastlinesprojectedtoincreasewithsealevelrisethrough2100 AT moppenheimer migrationtowardsbangladeshcoastlinesprojectedtoincreasewithsealevelrisethrough2100 AT mhauer migrationtowardsbangladeshcoastlinesprojectedtoincreasewithsealevelrisethrough2100 AT hadams migrationtowardsbangladeshcoastlinesprojectedtoincreasewithsealevelrisethrough2100 AT skulp migrationtowardsbangladeshcoastlinesprojectedtoincreasewithsealevelrisethrough2100 AT puclark migrationtowardsbangladeshcoastlinesprojectedtoincreasewithsealevelrisethrough2100 AT efussell migrationtowardsbangladeshcoastlinesprojectedtoincreasewithsealevelrisethrough2100 AT nmagliocca migrationtowardsbangladeshcoastlinesprojectedtoincreasewithsealevelrisethrough2100 AT txiao migrationtowardsbangladeshcoastlinesprojectedtoincreasewithsealevelrisethrough2100 AT eagilmore migrationtowardsbangladeshcoastlinesprojectedtoincreasewithsealevelrisethrough2100 AT kabel migrationtowardsbangladeshcoastlinesprojectedtoincreasewithsealevelrisethrough2100 AT mcall migrationtowardsbangladeshcoastlinesprojectedtoincreasewithsealevelrisethrough2100 AT abaslangen migrationtowardsbangladeshcoastlinesprojectedtoincreasewithsealevelrisethrough2100 |