Influences of changing sea ice and snow thicknesses on simulated Arctic winter heat fluxes
<p>In the high-latitude Arctic, wintertime sea ice and snow insulate the relatively warmer ocean from the colder atmosphere. While the climate warms, wintertime Arctic surface heat fluxes remain dominated by the insulating effects of snow and sea ice covering the ocean until the sea ice thins...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2022-04-01
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| Series: | The Cryosphere |
| Online Access: | https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/16/1483/2022/tc-16-1483-2022.pdf |
| Summary: | <p>In the high-latitude Arctic, wintertime sea ice and snow
insulate the relatively warmer ocean from the colder atmosphere. While the
climate warms, wintertime Arctic surface heat fluxes remain dominated by the
insulating effects of snow and sea ice covering the ocean until the sea ice
thins enough or sea ice concentrations decrease enough to allow for direct
ocean–atmosphere heat fluxes. The Community Earth System Model version 1 Large
Ensemble (CESM1-LE) simulates increases in wintertime conductive heat fluxes
in the ice-covered Arctic Ocean by <span class="inline-formula">∼</span> 7–11 W m<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−2</sup></span> by
the mid-21st century, thereby driving an increased warming of the
atmosphere. These increased fluxes are due to both thinning sea ice and
decreasing snow on sea ice. The simulations analyzed here use a sub-grid-scale
ice thickness distribution. Surface heat flux estimates calculated using
grid-cell mean values of sea ice thicknesses underestimate mean heat fluxes
by <span class="inline-formula">∼16</span> %–35 % and overestimate changes in conductive heat
fluxes by up to <span class="inline-formula">∼36</span> % in the wintertime Arctic basin even
when sea ice concentrations remain above 95 %. These results highlight how
wintertime conductive heat fluxes will increase in a warming world even
during times when sea ice concentrations remain high and that snow and the
distribution of snow significantly impact large-scale calculations of
wintertime surface heat budgets in the Arctic.</p> |
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| ISSN: | 1994-0416 1994-0424 |