Global future population exposure to heatwaves
The increasing exposure to extreme heatwaves in urban areas from both climate change and the urban heat island (UHI) effect poses multiple threats and challenges to human society. Despite a growing number of studies focusing on extreme exposure, research advances are still limited in some aspects su...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-08-01
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| Series: | Environment International |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412023003227 |
| _version_ | 1828718411574673408 |
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| author | Yuwei Wang Na Zhao Xiaozhe Yin Chaoyang Wu Mingxing Chen Yimeng Jiao Tianxiang Yue |
| author_facet | Yuwei Wang Na Zhao Xiaozhe Yin Chaoyang Wu Mingxing Chen Yimeng Jiao Tianxiang Yue |
| author_sort | Yuwei Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The increasing exposure to extreme heatwaves in urban areas from both climate change and the urban heat island (UHI) effect poses multiple threats and challenges to human society. Despite a growing number of studies focusing on extreme exposure, research advances are still limited in some aspects such as oversimplification of human exposure to heatwaves and neglect of perceived temperature as well as actual body comfort, resulting in unreliable and unrealistic estimates of future results. In addition, little research has performed comprehensive and fine-resolution global analyses in future scenarios. In this study, we present the first global fine-resolution projection of future changing urban population exposure to heatwaves by 2100 under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) considering urban expansion at global, regional, and national scales. Overall, global urban population exposure to heatwaves is rising under the four SSPs. Temperate and tropical zones predictably have the greatest exposure among all climate zones. Coastal cities are projected to have the greatest exposure, followed closely by cities at low altitudes. Middle-income countries have the lowest exposure and the lowest inequality of exposure among countries. Individual climate effects contributed the most (approximately 46.4%) to future changes in exposure, followed by the interactive effect between climate and urbanization (approximately 18.5%). Our results indicate that more attention needs to be paid to policy improvements and sustainable development planning of global coastal cities and some low-altitude cities, especially in low- and high-income countries. Meanwhile, this study also highlights the impact of continued future urban expansion on population exposure to heatwaves. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T14:43:19Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ba1b829ea7584f57bfcbcc0dc7e9cafe |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 0160-4120 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T14:43:19Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environment International |
| spelling | doaj.art-ba1b829ea7584f57bfcbcc0dc7e9cafe2023-08-16T04:26:15ZengElsevierEnvironment International0160-41202023-08-01178108049Global future population exposure to heatwavesYuwei Wang0Na Zhao1Xiaozhe Yin2Chaoyang Wu3Mingxing Chen4Yimeng Jiao5Tianxiang Yue6State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, China; Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographic Information Resource Development and Application, Nanjing 210023, China; Corresponding author at: State Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.Department of Environmental Health, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA, USACollege of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, China; Key Laboratory of Land Surface Pattern and Simulation Institute, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaCollege of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, China; Key Laboratory of Regional Sustainable Development Modeling, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Resources and Environmental Information System, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; College of Resources and Environment, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 101408, ChinaThe increasing exposure to extreme heatwaves in urban areas from both climate change and the urban heat island (UHI) effect poses multiple threats and challenges to human society. Despite a growing number of studies focusing on extreme exposure, research advances are still limited in some aspects such as oversimplification of human exposure to heatwaves and neglect of perceived temperature as well as actual body comfort, resulting in unreliable and unrealistic estimates of future results. In addition, little research has performed comprehensive and fine-resolution global analyses in future scenarios. In this study, we present the first global fine-resolution projection of future changing urban population exposure to heatwaves by 2100 under four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) considering urban expansion at global, regional, and national scales. Overall, global urban population exposure to heatwaves is rising under the four SSPs. Temperate and tropical zones predictably have the greatest exposure among all climate zones. Coastal cities are projected to have the greatest exposure, followed closely by cities at low altitudes. Middle-income countries have the lowest exposure and the lowest inequality of exposure among countries. Individual climate effects contributed the most (approximately 46.4%) to future changes in exposure, followed by the interactive effect between climate and urbanization (approximately 18.5%). Our results indicate that more attention needs to be paid to policy improvements and sustainable development planning of global coastal cities and some low-altitude cities, especially in low- and high-income countries. Meanwhile, this study also highlights the impact of continued future urban expansion on population exposure to heatwaves.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412023003227Climate changeHeatwavesPopulation exposureUrbanization |
| spellingShingle | Yuwei Wang Na Zhao Xiaozhe Yin Chaoyang Wu Mingxing Chen Yimeng Jiao Tianxiang Yue Global future population exposure to heatwaves Environment International Climate change Heatwaves Population exposure Urbanization |
| title | Global future population exposure to heatwaves |
| title_full | Global future population exposure to heatwaves |
| title_fullStr | Global future population exposure to heatwaves |
| title_full_unstemmed | Global future population exposure to heatwaves |
| title_short | Global future population exposure to heatwaves |
| title_sort | global future population exposure to heatwaves |
| topic | Climate change Heatwaves Population exposure Urbanization |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0160412023003227 |
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