Impact of climate change and socioeconomic factors on domestic energy consumption: The case of Hong Kong and Singapore
Temperature and population growth are key drivers of energy consumption. However, the relative importance of climatic and socioeconomic factors driving energy consumption at different temporal scales is not well-understood. Therefore, we developed a time-series decomposition method to attribute the...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2022-11-01
|
| Series: | Energy Reports |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484722017838 |
| _version_ | 1797901892982931456 |
|---|---|
| author | Cho Kwong Charlie Lam Qing He Kai-lok Cheng Ping Yu Fan Kwok Pan Chun Byron Choi Daphne Ngar-yin Mah Darren Man-wai Cheung Kevin Lo Omer Yetemen |
| author_facet | Cho Kwong Charlie Lam Qing He Kai-lok Cheng Ping Yu Fan Kwok Pan Chun Byron Choi Daphne Ngar-yin Mah Darren Man-wai Cheung Kevin Lo Omer Yetemen |
| author_sort | Cho Kwong Charlie Lam |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Temperature and population growth are key drivers of energy consumption. However, the relative importance of climatic and socioeconomic factors driving energy consumption at different temporal scales is not well-understood. Therefore, we developed a time-series decomposition method to attribute the relative importance of climatic (heat index and monsoon index) and socioeconomic variables to domestic energy consumption in Hong Kong from 1981–2015. The same method was used for Singapore from 2005–2015 to test the transferability of our time-series method. Population growth and GDP were the primary drivers for domestic energy consumption in Hong Kong from 1981–2015, but the heat index became the primary driver from 2005–2015 instead. The monsoon and heat indexes were the primary drivers of domestic energy consumption in Singapore from 2005–2015. Climate change will increase air temperatures by 2–5 °C for Hong Kong and Singapore by 2100. For RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, Singapore shows a linear relationship between temperature and domestic energy consumption, whereas the relationship is non-linear in Hong Kong. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding the impact of climatic change on monsoon mechanism and heat index, which can predict future cooling demand and help achieve sustainable development goals. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T09:09:09Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ba3f1dc432b0401298b8464e85c3fc4a |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2352-4847 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T09:09:09Z |
| publishDate | 2022-11-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Energy Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-ba3f1dc432b0401298b8464e85c3fc4a2023-02-21T05:13:33ZengElsevierEnergy Reports2352-48472022-11-0181288612904Impact of climate change and socioeconomic factors on domestic energy consumption: The case of Hong Kong and SingaporeCho Kwong Charlie Lam0Qing He1Kai-lok Cheng2Ping Yu Fan3Kwok Pan Chun4Byron Choi5Daphne Ngar-yin Mah6Darren Man-wai Cheung7Kevin Lo8Omer Yetemen9School of Atmospheric Sciences, Sun Yat-sen University and Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai), Zhuhai, China; Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System (Sun Yat-sen University), Ministry of Education, Zhuhai, China; Guangdong Provincial Field Observation and Research Station for Climate Environment and Air Quality Change in the Pearl River Estuary, Guangzhou, ChinaMOE Key Laboratory of Fundamental Physical Quantities Measurement & Hubei Key Laboratory of Gravitation and Quantum Physics, PGMF and School of Physics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, ChinaDepartment of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong KongDepartment of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong KongDepartment of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong; Department of Geography and Environmental Management, University of the West of England, Bristol, UK; Corresponding author at: MOE Key Laboratory of Fundamental Physical Quantities Measurement & Hubei Key Laboratory of Gravitation and Quantum Physics, PGMF and School of Physics, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan, China.Department of Computer Science, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong KongDepartment of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong; Asian Energy Studies Centre, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong KongDepartment of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong; Asian Energy Studies Centre, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong KongDepartment of Geography, Hong Kong Baptist University, Kowloon Tong, Hong KongEurasia Institute of Earth Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Istanbul, TurkeyTemperature and population growth are key drivers of energy consumption. However, the relative importance of climatic and socioeconomic factors driving energy consumption at different temporal scales is not well-understood. Therefore, we developed a time-series decomposition method to attribute the relative importance of climatic (heat index and monsoon index) and socioeconomic variables to domestic energy consumption in Hong Kong from 1981–2015. The same method was used for Singapore from 2005–2015 to test the transferability of our time-series method. Population growth and GDP were the primary drivers for domestic energy consumption in Hong Kong from 1981–2015, but the heat index became the primary driver from 2005–2015 instead. The monsoon and heat indexes were the primary drivers of domestic energy consumption in Singapore from 2005–2015. Climate change will increase air temperatures by 2–5 °C for Hong Kong and Singapore by 2100. For RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, Singapore shows a linear relationship between temperature and domestic energy consumption, whereas the relationship is non-linear in Hong Kong. Our findings highlight the importance of understanding the impact of climatic change on monsoon mechanism and heat index, which can predict future cooling demand and help achieve sustainable development goals.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484722017838Energy consumptionClimate changeHeat indexMonsoon indexPopulation changeRelative importance analysis |
| spellingShingle | Cho Kwong Charlie Lam Qing He Kai-lok Cheng Ping Yu Fan Kwok Pan Chun Byron Choi Daphne Ngar-yin Mah Darren Man-wai Cheung Kevin Lo Omer Yetemen Impact of climate change and socioeconomic factors on domestic energy consumption: The case of Hong Kong and Singapore Energy Reports Energy consumption Climate change Heat index Monsoon index Population change Relative importance analysis |
| title | Impact of climate change and socioeconomic factors on domestic energy consumption: The case of Hong Kong and Singapore |
| title_full | Impact of climate change and socioeconomic factors on domestic energy consumption: The case of Hong Kong and Singapore |
| title_fullStr | Impact of climate change and socioeconomic factors on domestic energy consumption: The case of Hong Kong and Singapore |
| title_full_unstemmed | Impact of climate change and socioeconomic factors on domestic energy consumption: The case of Hong Kong and Singapore |
| title_short | Impact of climate change and socioeconomic factors on domestic energy consumption: The case of Hong Kong and Singapore |
| title_sort | impact of climate change and socioeconomic factors on domestic energy consumption the case of hong kong and singapore |
| topic | Energy consumption Climate change Heat index Monsoon index Population change Relative importance analysis |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352484722017838 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT chokwongcharlielam impactofclimatechangeandsocioeconomicfactorsondomesticenergyconsumptionthecaseofhongkongandsingapore AT qinghe impactofclimatechangeandsocioeconomicfactorsondomesticenergyconsumptionthecaseofhongkongandsingapore AT kailokcheng impactofclimatechangeandsocioeconomicfactorsondomesticenergyconsumptionthecaseofhongkongandsingapore AT pingyufan impactofclimatechangeandsocioeconomicfactorsondomesticenergyconsumptionthecaseofhongkongandsingapore AT kwokpanchun impactofclimatechangeandsocioeconomicfactorsondomesticenergyconsumptionthecaseofhongkongandsingapore AT byronchoi impactofclimatechangeandsocioeconomicfactorsondomesticenergyconsumptionthecaseofhongkongandsingapore AT daphnengaryinmah impactofclimatechangeandsocioeconomicfactorsondomesticenergyconsumptionthecaseofhongkongandsingapore AT darrenmanwaicheung impactofclimatechangeandsocioeconomicfactorsondomesticenergyconsumptionthecaseofhongkongandsingapore AT kevinlo impactofclimatechangeandsocioeconomicfactorsondomesticenergyconsumptionthecaseofhongkongandsingapore AT omeryetemen impactofclimatechangeandsocioeconomicfactorsondomesticenergyconsumptionthecaseofhongkongandsingapore |