Long-term trends and projections of hydrological fluxes under RCP climate change scenarios for a mountainous river catchment of northeast India
The estimate of changes in hydrological fluxes from a climate change perspective is inevitable for assessing the sustainability of watersheds and conserving water resources. Here, we quantify and assess the changes in different hydrological flux components for the Manu-Deo River Basin (MDRB) of nort...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
IWA Publishing
2022-04-01
|
| Series: | Journal of Water and Climate Change |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/13/4/1776 |
| _version_ | 1828366580753367040 |
|---|---|
| author | S. Murasingh J. Kuttippurath S. Sandeep Dash S. Raj R. Remesan Madan K. Jha P. Kumar |
| author_facet | S. Murasingh J. Kuttippurath S. Sandeep Dash S. Raj R. Remesan Madan K. Jha P. Kumar |
| author_sort | S. Murasingh |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The estimate of changes in hydrological fluxes from a climate change perspective is inevitable for assessing the sustainability of watersheds and conserving water resources. Here, we quantify and assess the changes in different hydrological flux components for the Manu-Deo River Basin (MDRB) of northeast India using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) simulations and multi-temporal data at various resolutions. Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) optimization is used to calibrate and validate the simulations for the periods 1984–2006 and 2007–2016 and for the four future representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The model performed reasonably well for the calibration and validation of daily data, in accordance with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination (0.54/0.55 and 0.52/0.72, respectively). The analysis for the period 1985–2013 reveals a decreasing trend in streamflow, which indicates increasing trends of drought there. Furthermore, it shows an increasing trend in evapotranspiration (ET) and decreasing trend for baseflow (BF), suggesting an adverse impact on agricultural production during lean periods. In addition, the RCP 2.6 and 6.0 scenarios for the monsoon season in future time scales are expected to cause a reduction in different flow components, although RCP 8.5 shows increased water availability there. The sub-basin-scale quantification and multi-temporal analysis of water availability under the present and future climate scenarios, as presented here, can assist water managers in formulating a suitable operational policy to implement a better decision-making framework for river and waterbody management. This is particularly important for mountainous regions, where input data are sparse and modelling of hydrological fluxes is challenging. HIGHLIGHTS
A model for a mountain river basin is customized to analyse hydrological fluxes.;
The model performs better at a monthly time scale than at a daily time scale.;
Streamflow has been decreasing in the basin but increases in all RCP scenarios.;
Increase in evapotranspiration in monsoon seasons in both past and future periods.;
A multi-model approach provides more reliable estimates of water balance components.; |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-14T05:47:01Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ba68f0eeb6f7465c8906c4d3b7d7e121 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2040-2244 2408-9354 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-14T05:47:01Z |
| publishDate | 2022-04-01 |
| publisher | IWA Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Water and Climate Change |
| spelling | doaj.art-ba68f0eeb6f7465c8906c4d3b7d7e1212022-12-22T02:09:15ZengIWA PublishingJournal of Water and Climate Change2040-22442408-93542022-04-011341776178910.2166/wcc.2022.424424Long-term trends and projections of hydrological fluxes under RCP climate change scenarios for a mountainous river catchment of northeast IndiaS. Murasingh0J. Kuttippurath1S. Sandeep Dash2S. Raj3R. Remesan4Madan K. Jha5P. Kumar6 CORAL, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, 721 302 Kharagpur, India CORAL, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, 721 302 Kharagpur, India School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India CORAL, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, 721 302 Kharagpur, India School of Water Resources, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India AgFE Department, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, Kharagpur, India CORAL, Indian Institute of Technology Kharagpur, 721 302 Kharagpur, India The estimate of changes in hydrological fluxes from a climate change perspective is inevitable for assessing the sustainability of watersheds and conserving water resources. Here, we quantify and assess the changes in different hydrological flux components for the Manu-Deo River Basin (MDRB) of northeast India using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) simulations and multi-temporal data at various resolutions. Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) optimization is used to calibrate and validate the simulations for the periods 1984–2006 and 2007–2016 and for the four future representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios. The model performed reasonably well for the calibration and validation of daily data, in accordance with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency and coefficient of determination (0.54/0.55 and 0.52/0.72, respectively). The analysis for the period 1985–2013 reveals a decreasing trend in streamflow, which indicates increasing trends of drought there. Furthermore, it shows an increasing trend in evapotranspiration (ET) and decreasing trend for baseflow (BF), suggesting an adverse impact on agricultural production during lean periods. In addition, the RCP 2.6 and 6.0 scenarios for the monsoon season in future time scales are expected to cause a reduction in different flow components, although RCP 8.5 shows increased water availability there. The sub-basin-scale quantification and multi-temporal analysis of water availability under the present and future climate scenarios, as presented here, can assist water managers in formulating a suitable operational policy to implement a better decision-making framework for river and waterbody management. This is particularly important for mountainous regions, where input data are sparse and modelling of hydrological fluxes is challenging. HIGHLIGHTS A model for a mountain river basin is customized to analyse hydrological fluxes.; The model performs better at a monthly time scale than at a daily time scale.; Streamflow has been decreasing in the basin but increases in all RCP scenarios.; Increase in evapotranspiration in monsoon seasons in both past and future periods.; A multi-model approach provides more reliable estimates of water balance components.;http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/13/4/1776climate changehydrological fluxeslinear trendsnortheast indiarcp scenariosswat |
| spellingShingle | S. Murasingh J. Kuttippurath S. Sandeep Dash S. Raj R. Remesan Madan K. Jha P. Kumar Long-term trends and projections of hydrological fluxes under RCP climate change scenarios for a mountainous river catchment of northeast India Journal of Water and Climate Change climate change hydrological fluxes linear trends northeast india rcp scenarios swat |
| title | Long-term trends and projections of hydrological fluxes under RCP climate change scenarios for a mountainous river catchment of northeast India |
| title_full | Long-term trends and projections of hydrological fluxes under RCP climate change scenarios for a mountainous river catchment of northeast India |
| title_fullStr | Long-term trends and projections of hydrological fluxes under RCP climate change scenarios for a mountainous river catchment of northeast India |
| title_full_unstemmed | Long-term trends and projections of hydrological fluxes under RCP climate change scenarios for a mountainous river catchment of northeast India |
| title_short | Long-term trends and projections of hydrological fluxes under RCP climate change scenarios for a mountainous river catchment of northeast India |
| title_sort | long term trends and projections of hydrological fluxes under rcp climate change scenarios for a mountainous river catchment of northeast india |
| topic | climate change hydrological fluxes linear trends northeast india rcp scenarios swat |
| url | http://jwcc.iwaponline.com/content/13/4/1776 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT smurasingh longtermtrendsandprojectionsofhydrologicalfluxesunderrcpclimatechangescenariosforamountainousrivercatchmentofnortheastindia AT jkuttippurath longtermtrendsandprojectionsofhydrologicalfluxesunderrcpclimatechangescenariosforamountainousrivercatchmentofnortheastindia AT ssandeepdash longtermtrendsandprojectionsofhydrologicalfluxesunderrcpclimatechangescenariosforamountainousrivercatchmentofnortheastindia AT sraj longtermtrendsandprojectionsofhydrologicalfluxesunderrcpclimatechangescenariosforamountainousrivercatchmentofnortheastindia AT rremesan longtermtrendsandprojectionsofhydrologicalfluxesunderrcpclimatechangescenariosforamountainousrivercatchmentofnortheastindia AT madankjha longtermtrendsandprojectionsofhydrologicalfluxesunderrcpclimatechangescenariosforamountainousrivercatchmentofnortheastindia AT pkumar longtermtrendsandprojectionsofhydrologicalfluxesunderrcpclimatechangescenariosforamountainousrivercatchmentofnortheastindia |