Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle
Anthropogenic land-use and land cover changes (LULCC) affect global climate and global terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. However, relatively few studies have quantified the impacts of future LULCC on terrestrial carbon cycle. Here, using Earth system model simulations performed with and without future L...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2018-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac4c3 |
| _version_ | 1797748229789450240 |
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| author | Benjamin Quesada Almut Arneth Eddy Robertson Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré |
| author_facet | Benjamin Quesada Almut Arneth Eddy Robertson Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré |
| author_sort | Benjamin Quesada |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Anthropogenic land-use and land cover changes (LULCC) affect global climate and global terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. However, relatively few studies have quantified the impacts of future LULCC on terrestrial carbon cycle. Here, using Earth system model simulations performed with and without future LULCC, under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find that in response to future LULCC, the carbon cycle is substantially weakened: browning, lower ecosystem C stocks, higher C loss by disturbances and higher C turnover rates are simulated. Projected global greening and land C storage are dampened, in all models, by 22% and 24% on average and projected C loss by disturbances enhanced by ~49% when LULCC are taken into account. By contrast, global net primary productivity is found to be only slightly affected by LULCC (robust +4% relative enhancement compared to all forcings, on average). LULCC is projected to be a predominant driver of future C changes in regions like South America and the southern part of Africa. LULCC even cause some regional reversals of projected increased C sinks and greening, particularly at the edges of the Amazon and African rainforests. Finally, in most carbon cycle responses, direct removal of C dominates over the indirect CO _2 fertilization due to LULCC. In consequence, projections of land C sequestration potential and Earth’s greening could be substantially overestimated just because of not fully accounting for LULCC. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:01:56Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-ba7d219530d64daebfd62e3e6168ae3b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T16:01:56Z |
| publishDate | 2018-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-ba7d219530d64daebfd62e3e6168ae3b2023-08-09T14:35:36ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262018-01-0113606402310.1088/1748-9326/aac4c3Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycleBenjamin Quesada0https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8827-4801Almut Arneth1Eddy Robertson2Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré3Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research , Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; Author to whom any correspondence should be addressed.Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research , Atmospheric Environmental Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, GermanyMet Office Hadley Centre , Exeter, United KingdomLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement LSCE/IPSL , Unité mixte CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, FranceAnthropogenic land-use and land cover changes (LULCC) affect global climate and global terrestrial carbon (C) cycle. However, relatively few studies have quantified the impacts of future LULCC on terrestrial carbon cycle. Here, using Earth system model simulations performed with and without future LULCC, under the RCP8.5 scenario, we find that in response to future LULCC, the carbon cycle is substantially weakened: browning, lower ecosystem C stocks, higher C loss by disturbances and higher C turnover rates are simulated. Projected global greening and land C storage are dampened, in all models, by 22% and 24% on average and projected C loss by disturbances enhanced by ~49% when LULCC are taken into account. By contrast, global net primary productivity is found to be only slightly affected by LULCC (robust +4% relative enhancement compared to all forcings, on average). LULCC is projected to be a predominant driver of future C changes in regions like South America and the southern part of Africa. LULCC even cause some regional reversals of projected increased C sinks and greening, particularly at the edges of the Amazon and African rainforests. Finally, in most carbon cycle responses, direct removal of C dominates over the indirect CO _2 fertilization due to LULCC. In consequence, projections of land C sequestration potential and Earth’s greening could be substantially overestimated just because of not fully accounting for LULCC.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac4c3carbon cycleattributionland cover changesdeforestationgreeningland carbon storage |
| spellingShingle | Benjamin Quesada Almut Arneth Eddy Robertson Nathalie de Noblet-Ducoudré Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle Environmental Research Letters carbon cycle attribution land cover changes deforestation greening land carbon storage |
| title | Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle |
| title_full | Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle |
| title_fullStr | Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle |
| title_full_unstemmed | Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle |
| title_short | Potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land-use and land-cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle |
| title_sort | potential strong contribution of future anthropogenic land use and land cover change to the terrestrial carbon cycle |
| topic | carbon cycle attribution land cover changes deforestation greening land carbon storage |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aac4c3 |
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