Conditional CAPM: Time-varying Betas in the Brazilian Market
The conditional CAPM is characterized by time-varying market beta. Based on state-space models approach, beta behavior can be modeled as a stochastic process dependent on conditioning variables related to business cycle and estimated using Kalman filter. This paper studies alternative models for por...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Brazilian Society of Finance
2014-10-01
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| Series: | Revista Brasileira de Finanças |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://bibliotecadigital.fgv.br/ojs/index.php/rbfin/article/viewFile/13942/33951 |
| Summary: | The conditional CAPM is characterized by time-varying market beta. Based on state-space models approach, beta behavior can be modeled as a stochastic process dependent on conditioning variables related to business cycle and estimated using Kalman filter. This paper studies alternative models for portfolios sorted by size and book-to-market ratio in the Brazilian stock market and compares their adjustment to data. Asset pricing tests based on time-series and cross-sectional approaches are also implemented. A random walk process combined with conditioning variables is the preferred model, reducing pricing errors compared to unconditional CAPM, but the errors are still significant. Cross-sectional test show that book-to-market ratio becomes less relevant, but past returns still capture cross-section variation |
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| ISSN: | 1679-0731 1984-5146 |