Riverine flood risk assessment with a combined model chain in southeastern China
Climate change and rapid urbanization have exacerbated the occurrence and impact of floods. It is essential to carry out a quantitative flood risk assessment and manage the flood risk before a disaster occurs. This article presents a combined riverine flood risk model to obtain the exceedance probab...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Ecological Indicators |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23008282 |
| _version_ | 1797683157041938432 |
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| author | Lihong Wang Shenghui Cui Jianxiong Tang Lei Fang Xuejuan Fang Sabita Shrestha Bikram Manandhar Jinliang Huang Vilas Nitivattananon |
| author_facet | Lihong Wang Shenghui Cui Jianxiong Tang Lei Fang Xuejuan Fang Sabita Shrestha Bikram Manandhar Jinliang Huang Vilas Nitivattananon |
| author_sort | Lihong Wang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change and rapid urbanization have exacerbated the occurrence and impact of floods. It is essential to carry out a quantitative flood risk assessment and manage the flood risk before a disaster occurs. This article presents a combined riverine flood risk model to obtain the exceedance probability loss (EPL) curve and expected annual damage (EAD) under the current climate. This model includes a rapid flood model and a flood damage model. It aims to simulate the flood risk and evaluate the flood damage at 10-, 30-, 50-, 100-, and 200-year return period events. The results show that: (1) The total inundation areas will sharply increase when the flood return periods are over 30 years. (2) The EAD is 1,476 million dollars in the Jiulong River Basin (JRB). When the flood return period is over 30 years, the total damage increases sharply. (3) The flood risk in the lower reaches of the JRB is higher than in the upper reaches when the flood event is beyond a 20-year return period. (4) Industrial sector damage is the largest, followed by tertiary industry, transportation, construction, agriculture, and infrastructure. The combined model chain can quickly assess the flood risk in the river basin and judge the flood risk in a watershed compared to the national level. In addition, it can be applied to other river basins, and it will provide actionable information for future flood risk management. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T00:10:28Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bac381eb7691415aabac85cd01648cec |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1470-160X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T00:10:28Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Ecological Indicators |
| spelling | doaj.art-bac381eb7691415aabac85cd01648cec2023-09-16T05:29:40ZengElsevierEcological Indicators1470-160X2023-10-01154110686Riverine flood risk assessment with a combined model chain in southeastern ChinaLihong Wang0Shenghui Cui1Jianxiong Tang2Lei Fang3Xuejuan Fang4Sabita Shrestha5Bikram Manandhar6Jinliang Huang7Vilas Nitivattananon8Key Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Xiamen 361021, China; Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, ChinaKey Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China; Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China; Corresponding author.Xiamen Municipal Natural Resources and Planning Bureau, Xiamen 361012, ChinaXi’an University of Architecture and Technology, School of Public Administration, Xi’an 710000, ChinaKey Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Xiamen 361021, China; Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, ChinaKey Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Xiamen 361021, China; Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, ChinaKey Laboratory of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China; Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Xiamen 361021, China; Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen 361021, China; Tribhuvan University, Institute of Forestry, Hetauda 44107, NepalFujian Key Laboratory of Coastal Pollution Prevention and Control, Xiamen University, Xiamen 361102, ChinaDepartment of Development and Sustainability, School of Environment, Resources and Development, Asian Institute of Technology, Pathumthani 12120, ThailandClimate change and rapid urbanization have exacerbated the occurrence and impact of floods. It is essential to carry out a quantitative flood risk assessment and manage the flood risk before a disaster occurs. This article presents a combined riverine flood risk model to obtain the exceedance probability loss (EPL) curve and expected annual damage (EAD) under the current climate. This model includes a rapid flood model and a flood damage model. It aims to simulate the flood risk and evaluate the flood damage at 10-, 30-, 50-, 100-, and 200-year return period events. The results show that: (1) The total inundation areas will sharply increase when the flood return periods are over 30 years. (2) The EAD is 1,476 million dollars in the Jiulong River Basin (JRB). When the flood return period is over 30 years, the total damage increases sharply. (3) The flood risk in the lower reaches of the JRB is higher than in the upper reaches when the flood event is beyond a 20-year return period. (4) Industrial sector damage is the largest, followed by tertiary industry, transportation, construction, agriculture, and infrastructure. The combined model chain can quickly assess the flood risk in the river basin and judge the flood risk in a watershed compared to the national level. In addition, it can be applied to other river basins, and it will provide actionable information for future flood risk management.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23008282Flood return periodRisk assessmentDepth-damage curveDamage estimationUncertainty |
| spellingShingle | Lihong Wang Shenghui Cui Jianxiong Tang Lei Fang Xuejuan Fang Sabita Shrestha Bikram Manandhar Jinliang Huang Vilas Nitivattananon Riverine flood risk assessment with a combined model chain in southeastern China Ecological Indicators Flood return period Risk assessment Depth-damage curve Damage estimation Uncertainty |
| title | Riverine flood risk assessment with a combined model chain in southeastern China |
| title_full | Riverine flood risk assessment with a combined model chain in southeastern China |
| title_fullStr | Riverine flood risk assessment with a combined model chain in southeastern China |
| title_full_unstemmed | Riverine flood risk assessment with a combined model chain in southeastern China |
| title_short | Riverine flood risk assessment with a combined model chain in southeastern China |
| title_sort | riverine flood risk assessment with a combined model chain in southeastern china |
| topic | Flood return period Risk assessment Depth-damage curve Damage estimation Uncertainty |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X23008282 |
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