African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO<sub>2</sub> under recent and near-future CO<sub>2</sub> conditions
<p>Current rates of climate and atmospheric change are likely higher than during the last millions of years. Even higher rates of change are projected in CMIP5 climate model ensemble runs for some Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The speed of ecological processes such as l...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2020-02-01
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| Series: | Biogeosciences |
| Online Access: | https://www.biogeosciences.net/17/1147/2020/bg-17-1147-2020.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818324992384827392 |
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| author | S. Scheiter G. R. Moncrieff G. R. Moncrieff M. Pfeiffer S. I. Higgins |
| author_facet | S. Scheiter G. R. Moncrieff G. R. Moncrieff M. Pfeiffer S. I. Higgins |
| author_sort | S. Scheiter |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Current rates of climate and atmospheric change are likely higher than during the last millions of years. Even higher rates of change are projected in CMIP5 climate model ensemble runs for some Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The speed of ecological processes such as leaf physiology, demography or migration can differ from the speed of changes in environmental conditions. Such mismatches imply lags between the actual vegetation state and the vegetation state expected under prevailing environmental conditions. Here, we used a dynamic vegetation model, the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (aDGVM), to study lags between actual and expected vegetation in Africa under a changing atmospheric <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> mixing ratio. We hypothesized that lag size increases with a more rapidly changing <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> mixing ratio as opposed to slower changes in <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> and that disturbance by fire further increases lag size. Our model results confirm these hypotheses, revealing lags between vegetation state and environmental conditions and enhanced lags in fire-driven systems. Biome states, carbon stored in vegetation and tree cover in Africa are most sensitive to changes in <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> under recent and near-future levels. When averaged across all biomes and simulations with and without fire, times to reach an equilibrium vegetation state increase from approximately 242 years for 200 ppm to 898 years for 1000 ppm. These results have important implications for vegetation modellers and for policy making. Lag effects imply that vegetation will undergo substantial changes in distribution patterns, structure and carbon sequestration even if emissions of fossils fuels and other greenhouse gasses are reduced and the climate system stabilizes. We conclude that modelers need to account for lag effects in models and in data used for model testing. Policy makers need to consider lagged responses and committed changes in the biosphere when developing adaptation and mitigation strategies.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T11:37:24Z |
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| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1726-4170 1726-4189 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T11:37:24Z |
| publishDate | 2020-02-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
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| series | Biogeosciences |
| spelling | doaj.art-bad2f00736c14e4e9f2f2e4ad0c228d22022-12-21T23:47:45ZengCopernicus PublicationsBiogeosciences1726-41701726-41892020-02-01171147116710.5194/bg-17-1147-2020African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO<sub>2</sub> under recent and near-future CO<sub>2</sub> conditionsS. Scheiter0G. R. Moncrieff1G. R. Moncrieff2M. Pfeiffer3S. I. Higgins4Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, GermanyFynbos Node, South African Environmental Observation Network, Claremont 7735, South AfricaCentre for Statistics in Ecology, Environment and Conservation, Department of Statistical Sciences, University of Cape Town, Private Bag X3, Rondebosch 7701, South AfricaSenckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, GermanyChair of Plant Ecology, University of Bayreuth, Universitätsstraße 30, 95440 Bayreuth, Germany<p>Current rates of climate and atmospheric change are likely higher than during the last millions of years. Even higher rates of change are projected in CMIP5 climate model ensemble runs for some Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. The speed of ecological processes such as leaf physiology, demography or migration can differ from the speed of changes in environmental conditions. Such mismatches imply lags between the actual vegetation state and the vegetation state expected under prevailing environmental conditions. Here, we used a dynamic vegetation model, the adaptive Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (aDGVM), to study lags between actual and expected vegetation in Africa under a changing atmospheric <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> mixing ratio. We hypothesized that lag size increases with a more rapidly changing <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> mixing ratio as opposed to slower changes in <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> and that disturbance by fire further increases lag size. Our model results confirm these hypotheses, revealing lags between vegetation state and environmental conditions and enhanced lags in fire-driven systems. Biome states, carbon stored in vegetation and tree cover in Africa are most sensitive to changes in <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span> under recent and near-future levels. When averaged across all biomes and simulations with and without fire, times to reach an equilibrium vegetation state increase from approximately 242 years for 200 ppm to 898 years for 1000 ppm. These results have important implications for vegetation modellers and for policy making. Lag effects imply that vegetation will undergo substantial changes in distribution patterns, structure and carbon sequestration even if emissions of fossils fuels and other greenhouse gasses are reduced and the climate system stabilizes. We conclude that modelers need to account for lag effects in models and in data used for model testing. Policy makers need to consider lagged responses and committed changes in the biosphere when developing adaptation and mitigation strategies.</p>https://www.biogeosciences.net/17/1147/2020/bg-17-1147-2020.pdf |
| spellingShingle | S. Scheiter G. R. Moncrieff G. R. Moncrieff M. Pfeiffer S. I. Higgins African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO<sub>2</sub> under recent and near-future CO<sub>2</sub> conditions Biogeosciences |
| title | African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO<sub>2</sub> under recent and near-future CO<sub>2</sub> conditions |
| title_full | African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO<sub>2</sub> under recent and near-future CO<sub>2</sub> conditions |
| title_fullStr | African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO<sub>2</sub> under recent and near-future CO<sub>2</sub> conditions |
| title_full_unstemmed | African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO<sub>2</sub> under recent and near-future CO<sub>2</sub> conditions |
| title_short | African biomes are most sensitive to changes in CO<sub>2</sub> under recent and near-future CO<sub>2</sub> conditions |
| title_sort | african biomes are most sensitive to changes in co sub 2 sub under recent and near future co sub 2 sub conditions |
| url | https://www.biogeosciences.net/17/1147/2020/bg-17-1147-2020.pdf |
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