FIT calculator: a multi-risk prediction framework for medical outcomes using cardiorespiratory fitness data
Abstract Accurately predicting patients' risk for specific medical outcomes is paramount for effective healthcare management and personalized medicine. While a substantial body of literature addresses the prediction of diverse medical conditions, existing models predominantly focus on singular...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2024-04-01
|
| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-59401-z |
| _version_ | 1797199564495650816 |
|---|---|
| author | Radwa Elshawi Sherif Sakr Mouaz H. Al-Mallah Steven J. Keteyian Clinton A. Brawner Jonathan K. Ehrman |
| author_facet | Radwa Elshawi Sherif Sakr Mouaz H. Al-Mallah Steven J. Keteyian Clinton A. Brawner Jonathan K. Ehrman |
| author_sort | Radwa Elshawi |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Accurately predicting patients' risk for specific medical outcomes is paramount for effective healthcare management and personalized medicine. While a substantial body of literature addresses the prediction of diverse medical conditions, existing models predominantly focus on singular outcomes, limiting their scope to one disease at a time. However, clinical reality often entails patients concurrently facing multiple health risks across various medical domains. In response to this gap, our study proposes a novel multi-risk framework adept at simultaneous risk prediction for multiple clinical outcomes, including diabetes, mortality, and hypertension. Leveraging a concise set of features extracted from patients' cardiorespiratory fitness data, our framework minimizes computational complexity while maximizing predictive accuracy. Moreover, we integrate a state-of-the-art instance-based interpretability technique into our framework, providing users with comprehensive explanations for each prediction. These explanations afford medical practitioners invaluable insights into the primary health factors influencing individual predictions, fostering greater trust and utility in the underlying prediction models. Our approach thus stands to significantly enhance healthcare decision-making processes, facilitating more targeted interventions and improving patient outcomes in clinical practice. Our prediction framework utilizes an automated machine learning framework, Auto-Weka, to optimize machine learning models and hyper-parameter configurations for the simultaneous prediction of three medical outcomes: diabetes, mortality, and hypertension. Additionally, we employ a local interpretability technique to elucidate predictions generated by our framework. These explanations manifest visually, highlighting key attributes contributing to each instance's prediction for enhanced interpretability. Using automated machine learning techniques, the models simultaneously predict hypertension, mortality, and diabetes risks, utilizing only nine patient features. They achieved an average AUC of 0.90 ± 0.001 on the hypertension dataset, 0.90 ± 0.002 on the mortality dataset, and 0.89 ± 0.001 on the diabetes dataset through tenfold cross-validation. Additionally, the models demonstrated strong performance with an average AUC of 0.89 ± 0.001 on the hypertension dataset, 0.90 ± 0.001 on the mortality dataset, and 0.89 ± 0.001 on the diabetes dataset using bootstrap evaluation with 1000 resamples. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T07:17:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bb047328836b4f9a805515a3d451355d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T07:17:46Z |
| publishDate | 2024-04-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-bb047328836b4f9a805515a3d451355d2024-04-21T11:14:45ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222024-04-0114111010.1038/s41598-024-59401-zFIT calculator: a multi-risk prediction framework for medical outcomes using cardiorespiratory fitness dataRadwa Elshawi0Sherif Sakr1Mouaz H. Al-Mallah2Steven J. Keteyian3Clinton A. Brawner4Jonathan K. Ehrman5Institute of Computer Science, University of TartuInstitute of Computer Science, University of TartuHouston Methodist DeBakey Heart & Vascular CenterDivision of Cardiovascular Medicine, Henry Ford HospitalDivision of Cardiovascular Medicine, Henry Ford HospitalDivision of Cardiovascular Medicine, Henry Ford HospitalAbstract Accurately predicting patients' risk for specific medical outcomes is paramount for effective healthcare management and personalized medicine. While a substantial body of literature addresses the prediction of diverse medical conditions, existing models predominantly focus on singular outcomes, limiting their scope to one disease at a time. However, clinical reality often entails patients concurrently facing multiple health risks across various medical domains. In response to this gap, our study proposes a novel multi-risk framework adept at simultaneous risk prediction for multiple clinical outcomes, including diabetes, mortality, and hypertension. Leveraging a concise set of features extracted from patients' cardiorespiratory fitness data, our framework minimizes computational complexity while maximizing predictive accuracy. Moreover, we integrate a state-of-the-art instance-based interpretability technique into our framework, providing users with comprehensive explanations for each prediction. These explanations afford medical practitioners invaluable insights into the primary health factors influencing individual predictions, fostering greater trust and utility in the underlying prediction models. Our approach thus stands to significantly enhance healthcare decision-making processes, facilitating more targeted interventions and improving patient outcomes in clinical practice. Our prediction framework utilizes an automated machine learning framework, Auto-Weka, to optimize machine learning models and hyper-parameter configurations for the simultaneous prediction of three medical outcomes: diabetes, mortality, and hypertension. Additionally, we employ a local interpretability technique to elucidate predictions generated by our framework. These explanations manifest visually, highlighting key attributes contributing to each instance's prediction for enhanced interpretability. Using automated machine learning techniques, the models simultaneously predict hypertension, mortality, and diabetes risks, utilizing only nine patient features. They achieved an average AUC of 0.90 ± 0.001 on the hypertension dataset, 0.90 ± 0.002 on the mortality dataset, and 0.89 ± 0.001 on the diabetes dataset through tenfold cross-validation. Additionally, the models demonstrated strong performance with an average AUC of 0.89 ± 0.001 on the hypertension dataset, 0.90 ± 0.001 on the mortality dataset, and 0.89 ± 0.001 on the diabetes dataset using bootstrap evaluation with 1000 resamples.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-59401-zPrediction modelClassification techniquesInterpretabilityAutomatic algorithm selectionHyperparameter optimization |
| spellingShingle | Radwa Elshawi Sherif Sakr Mouaz H. Al-Mallah Steven J. Keteyian Clinton A. Brawner Jonathan K. Ehrman FIT calculator: a multi-risk prediction framework for medical outcomes using cardiorespiratory fitness data Scientific Reports Prediction model Classification techniques Interpretability Automatic algorithm selection Hyperparameter optimization |
| title | FIT calculator: a multi-risk prediction framework for medical outcomes using cardiorespiratory fitness data |
| title_full | FIT calculator: a multi-risk prediction framework for medical outcomes using cardiorespiratory fitness data |
| title_fullStr | FIT calculator: a multi-risk prediction framework for medical outcomes using cardiorespiratory fitness data |
| title_full_unstemmed | FIT calculator: a multi-risk prediction framework for medical outcomes using cardiorespiratory fitness data |
| title_short | FIT calculator: a multi-risk prediction framework for medical outcomes using cardiorespiratory fitness data |
| title_sort | fit calculator a multi risk prediction framework for medical outcomes using cardiorespiratory fitness data |
| topic | Prediction model Classification techniques Interpretability Automatic algorithm selection Hyperparameter optimization |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-59401-z |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT radwaelshawi fitcalculatoramultiriskpredictionframeworkformedicaloutcomesusingcardiorespiratoryfitnessdata AT sherifsakr fitcalculatoramultiriskpredictionframeworkformedicaloutcomesusingcardiorespiratoryfitnessdata AT mouazhalmallah fitcalculatoramultiriskpredictionframeworkformedicaloutcomesusingcardiorespiratoryfitnessdata AT stevenjketeyian fitcalculatoramultiriskpredictionframeworkformedicaloutcomesusingcardiorespiratoryfitnessdata AT clintonabrawner fitcalculatoramultiriskpredictionframeworkformedicaloutcomesusingcardiorespiratoryfitnessdata AT jonathankehrman fitcalculatoramultiriskpredictionframeworkformedicaloutcomesusingcardiorespiratoryfitnessdata |