External validation of anti-Müllerian hormone based prediction of live birth in assisted conception
<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chronological age and oocyte yield are independent determinants of live birth in assisted conception. Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) is strongly associated with oocyte yield after controlled ovarian stimulation. We have previously asse...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2013-01-01
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| Series: | Journal of Ovarian Research |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.ovarianresearch.com/content/6/1/3 |
| _version_ | 1797968370356715520 |
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| author | Khader Amani Lloyd Suzanne M McConnachie Alex Fleming Richard Grisendi Valentina La Marca Antonio Nelson Scott M |
| author_facet | Khader Amani Lloyd Suzanne M McConnachie Alex Fleming Richard Grisendi Valentina La Marca Antonio Nelson Scott M |
| author_sort | Khader Amani |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chronological age and oocyte yield are independent determinants of live birth in assisted conception. Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) is strongly associated with oocyte yield after controlled ovarian stimulation. We have previously assessed the ability of AMH and age to independently predict live birth in an Italian assisted conception cohort. Herein we report the external validation of the nomogram in 822 UK first in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Retrospective cohort consisting of 822 patients undergoing their first IVF treatment cycle at Glasgow Centre for Reproductive Medicine. Analyses were restricted to women aged between 25 and 42 years of age. All women had an AMH measured prior to commencing their first IVF cycle. The performance of the model was assessed; discrimination by the area under the receiver operator curve (ROC<sub>AUC</sub>) and model calibration by the predicted probability versus observed probability.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Live births occurred in 29.4% of the cohort. The observed and predicted outcomes showed no evidence of miscalibration (p = 0.188). The ROC<sub>AUC</sub> was 0.64 (95% CI: 0.60, 0.68), suggesting moderate and similar discrimination to the original model. The ROC<sub>AUC</sub> for a continuous model of age and AMH was 0.65 (95% CI 0.61, 0.69), suggesting that the original categories of AMH were appropriate.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We confirm by external validation that AMH and age are independent predictors of live birth. Although the confidence intervals for each category are wide, our results support the assessment of AMH in larger cohorts with detailed baseline phenotyping for live birth prediction.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T02:45:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bb13867e80d541f29506684123bb59c7 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1757-2215 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T02:45:47Z |
| publishDate | 2013-01-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Ovarian Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-bb13867e80d541f29506684123bb59c72023-01-02T18:01:54ZengBMCJournal of Ovarian Research1757-22152013-01-0161310.1186/1757-2215-6-3External validation of anti-Müllerian hormone based prediction of live birth in assisted conceptionKhader AmaniLloyd Suzanne MMcConnachie AlexFleming RichardGrisendi ValentinaLa Marca AntonioNelson Scott M<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Chronological age and oocyte yield are independent determinants of live birth in assisted conception. Anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) is strongly associated with oocyte yield after controlled ovarian stimulation. We have previously assessed the ability of AMH and age to independently predict live birth in an Italian assisted conception cohort. Herein we report the external validation of the nomogram in 822 UK first in vitro fertilization (IVF) cycles.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Retrospective cohort consisting of 822 patients undergoing their first IVF treatment cycle at Glasgow Centre for Reproductive Medicine. Analyses were restricted to women aged between 25 and 42 years of age. All women had an AMH measured prior to commencing their first IVF cycle. The performance of the model was assessed; discrimination by the area under the receiver operator curve (ROC<sub>AUC</sub>) and model calibration by the predicted probability versus observed probability.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Live births occurred in 29.4% of the cohort. The observed and predicted outcomes showed no evidence of miscalibration (p = 0.188). The ROC<sub>AUC</sub> was 0.64 (95% CI: 0.60, 0.68), suggesting moderate and similar discrimination to the original model. The ROC<sub>AUC</sub> for a continuous model of age and AMH was 0.65 (95% CI 0.61, 0.69), suggesting that the original categories of AMH were appropriate.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>We confirm by external validation that AMH and age are independent predictors of live birth. Although the confidence intervals for each category are wide, our results support the assessment of AMH in larger cohorts with detailed baseline phenotyping for live birth prediction.</p>http://www.ovarianresearch.com/content/6/1/3AMHLive birth predictionIVF |
| spellingShingle | Khader Amani Lloyd Suzanne M McConnachie Alex Fleming Richard Grisendi Valentina La Marca Antonio Nelson Scott M External validation of anti-Müllerian hormone based prediction of live birth in assisted conception Journal of Ovarian Research AMH Live birth prediction IVF |
| title | External validation of anti-Müllerian hormone based prediction of live birth in assisted conception |
| title_full | External validation of anti-Müllerian hormone based prediction of live birth in assisted conception |
| title_fullStr | External validation of anti-Müllerian hormone based prediction of live birth in assisted conception |
| title_full_unstemmed | External validation of anti-Müllerian hormone based prediction of live birth in assisted conception |
| title_short | External validation of anti-Müllerian hormone based prediction of live birth in assisted conception |
| title_sort | external validation of anti mullerian hormone based prediction of live birth in assisted conception |
| topic | AMH Live birth prediction IVF |
| url | http://www.ovarianresearch.com/content/6/1/3 |
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