Projecting Marine Mammal Distribution in a Changing Climate
Climate-related shifts in marine mammal range and distribution have been observed in some populations; however, the nature and magnitude of future responses are uncertain in novel environments projected under climate change. This poses a challenge for agencies charged with management and conservatio...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Frontiers Media S.A.
2017-12-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Marine Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2017.00413/full |
| _version_ | 1818602882187919360 |
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| author | Gregory K. Silber Gregory K. Silber Matthew D. Lettrich Matthew D. Lettrich Peter O. Thomas Jason D. Baker Mark Baumgartner Elizabeth A. Becker Peter Boveng Dorothy M. Dick Dorothy M. Dick Jerome Fiechter Jaume Forcada Karin A. Forney Karin A. Forney Roger B. Griffis Jonathan A. Hare Alistair J. Hobday Alistair J. Hobday Daniel Howell Kristin L. Laidre Nate Mantua Lori Quakenbush Jarrod A. Santora Kathleen M. Stafford Paul Spencer Charles Stock William Sydeman Kyle Van Houtan Kyle Van Houtan Kyle Van Houtan Robin S. Waples |
| author_facet | Gregory K. Silber Gregory K. Silber Matthew D. Lettrich Matthew D. Lettrich Peter O. Thomas Jason D. Baker Mark Baumgartner Elizabeth A. Becker Peter Boveng Dorothy M. Dick Dorothy M. Dick Jerome Fiechter Jaume Forcada Karin A. Forney Karin A. Forney Roger B. Griffis Jonathan A. Hare Alistair J. Hobday Alistair J. Hobday Daniel Howell Kristin L. Laidre Nate Mantua Lori Quakenbush Jarrod A. Santora Kathleen M. Stafford Paul Spencer Charles Stock William Sydeman Kyle Van Houtan Kyle Van Houtan Kyle Van Houtan Robin S. Waples |
| author_sort | Gregory K. Silber |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate-related shifts in marine mammal range and distribution have been observed in some populations; however, the nature and magnitude of future responses are uncertain in novel environments projected under climate change. This poses a challenge for agencies charged with management and conservation of these species. Specialized diets, restricted ranges, or reliance on specific substrates or sites (e.g., for pupping) make many marine mammal populations particularly vulnerable to climate change. High-latitude, predominantly ice-obligate, species have experienced some of the largest changes in habitat and distribution and these are expected to continue. Efforts to predict and project marine mammal distributions to date have emphasized data-driven statistical habitat models. These have proven successful for short time-scale (e.g., seasonal) management activities, but confidence that such relationships will hold for multi-decade projections and novel environments is limited. Recent advances in mechanistic modeling of marine mammals (i.e., models that rely on robust physiological and ecological principles expected to hold under climate change) may address this limitation. The success of such approaches rests on continued advances in marine mammal ecology, behavior, and physiology together with improved regional climate projections. The broad scope of this challenge suggests initial priorities be placed on vulnerable species or populations (those already experiencing declines or projected to undergo ecological shifts resulting from climate changes that are consistent across climate projections) and species or populations for which ample data already exist (with the hope that these may inform climate change sensitivities in less well observed species or populations elsewhere). The sustained monitoring networks, novel observations, and modeling advances required to more confidently project marine mammal distributions in a changing climate will ultimately benefit management decisions across time-scales, further promoting the resilience of marine mammal populations. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-16T13:14:20Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bb32d5bfc6b74d04bbd4180c97c76107 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-7745 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-16T13:14:20Z |
| publishDate | 2017-12-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Marine Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-bb32d5bfc6b74d04bbd4180c97c761072022-12-21T22:30:31ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Marine Science2296-77452017-12-01410.3389/fmars.2017.00413245948Projecting Marine Mammal Distribution in a Changing ClimateGregory K. Silber0Gregory K. Silber1Matthew D. Lettrich2Matthew D. Lettrich3Peter O. Thomas4Jason D. Baker5Mark Baumgartner6Elizabeth A. Becker7Peter Boveng8Dorothy M. Dick9Dorothy M. Dick10Jerome Fiechter11Jaume Forcada12Karin A. Forney13Karin A. Forney14Roger B. Griffis15Jonathan A. Hare16Alistair J. Hobday17Alistair J. Hobday18Daniel Howell19Kristin L. Laidre20Nate Mantua21Lori Quakenbush22Jarrod A. Santora23Kathleen M. Stafford24Paul Spencer25Charles Stock26William Sydeman27Kyle Van Houtan28Kyle Van Houtan29Kyle Van Houtan30Robin S. Waples31NOAA Fisheries, Office of Protected Resources, Silver Spring, MD, United StatesSmultea Environmental Sciences, Washington Grove, MD, United StatesECS Federal, LLC, Fairfax, VA, United StatesNOAA Fisheries, Office of Science and Technology, Silver Spring, MD, United StatesMarine Mammal Commission, Bethesda, MD, United StatesNOAA Fisheries, Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA, United StatesWoods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, MA, United StatesSouthwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Moss Landing, CA, United StatesNOAA Fisheries, Marine Mammal Laboratory, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA, United StatesNOAA Fisheries, Office of Protected Resources, Silver Spring, MD, United States0Ocean Associates, Inc., Arlington, VA, United States1Ocean Sciences Department, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States2British Antarctic Survey, Natural Environment Research Council, Cambridge, United KingdomSouthwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Moss Landing, CA, United States3Moss Landing Marine Laboratories, Moss Landing, CA, United StatesNOAA Fisheries, Office of Science and Technology, Silver Spring, MD, United States4NOAA Fisheries, Northeast Fisheries Science Center, Woods Hole, MA, United States5CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Hobart, TAS, Australia6Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania, Hobart, TAS, Australia7Institute of Marine Research, Bergen, Norway8Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States9Southwest Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Santa Cruz, CA, United States0Alaska Department of Fish and Game, Fairbanks, AK, United States1Department of Applied Mathematics and Statistics, University of California, Santa Cruz, Santa Cruz, CA, United States8Applied Physics Laboratory, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, United States2NOAA Fisheries, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA, United States3Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA Oceanic and Atmospheric Research, Princeton, NJ, United States4Farallon Institute, Petaluma, CA, United StatesNOAA Fisheries, Pacific Islands Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA, United States5Monterey Bay Aquarium, Monterey, CA, United States6Duke University, Nicholas School of the Environment, Durham, NC, United States7NOAA Fisheries, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, Seattle, WA, United StatesClimate-related shifts in marine mammal range and distribution have been observed in some populations; however, the nature and magnitude of future responses are uncertain in novel environments projected under climate change. This poses a challenge for agencies charged with management and conservation of these species. Specialized diets, restricted ranges, or reliance on specific substrates or sites (e.g., for pupping) make many marine mammal populations particularly vulnerable to climate change. High-latitude, predominantly ice-obligate, species have experienced some of the largest changes in habitat and distribution and these are expected to continue. Efforts to predict and project marine mammal distributions to date have emphasized data-driven statistical habitat models. These have proven successful for short time-scale (e.g., seasonal) management activities, but confidence that such relationships will hold for multi-decade projections and novel environments is limited. Recent advances in mechanistic modeling of marine mammals (i.e., models that rely on robust physiological and ecological principles expected to hold under climate change) may address this limitation. The success of such approaches rests on continued advances in marine mammal ecology, behavior, and physiology together with improved regional climate projections. The broad scope of this challenge suggests initial priorities be placed on vulnerable species or populations (those already experiencing declines or projected to undergo ecological shifts resulting from climate changes that are consistent across climate projections) and species or populations for which ample data already exist (with the hope that these may inform climate change sensitivities in less well observed species or populations elsewhere). The sustained monitoring networks, novel observations, and modeling advances required to more confidently project marine mammal distributions in a changing climate will ultimately benefit management decisions across time-scales, further promoting the resilience of marine mammal populations.http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2017.00413/fullmarine mammal distribution and abundanceclimate-changemarine ecosystemspredicting and forecastingMarine mammal conservation |
| spellingShingle | Gregory K. Silber Gregory K. Silber Matthew D. Lettrich Matthew D. Lettrich Peter O. Thomas Jason D. Baker Mark Baumgartner Elizabeth A. Becker Peter Boveng Dorothy M. Dick Dorothy M. Dick Jerome Fiechter Jaume Forcada Karin A. Forney Karin A. Forney Roger B. Griffis Jonathan A. Hare Alistair J. Hobday Alistair J. Hobday Daniel Howell Kristin L. Laidre Nate Mantua Lori Quakenbush Jarrod A. Santora Kathleen M. Stafford Paul Spencer Charles Stock William Sydeman Kyle Van Houtan Kyle Van Houtan Kyle Van Houtan Robin S. Waples Projecting Marine Mammal Distribution in a Changing Climate Frontiers in Marine Science marine mammal distribution and abundance climate-change marine ecosystems predicting and forecasting Marine mammal conservation |
| title | Projecting Marine Mammal Distribution in a Changing Climate |
| title_full | Projecting Marine Mammal Distribution in a Changing Climate |
| title_fullStr | Projecting Marine Mammal Distribution in a Changing Climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | Projecting Marine Mammal Distribution in a Changing Climate |
| title_short | Projecting Marine Mammal Distribution in a Changing Climate |
| title_sort | projecting marine mammal distribution in a changing climate |
| topic | marine mammal distribution and abundance climate-change marine ecosystems predicting and forecasting Marine mammal conservation |
| url | http://journal.frontiersin.org/article/10.3389/fmars.2017.00413/full |
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