Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and science
Uncertainty is an inherent part of knowledge, and yet in an era of contested expertise, many shy away from openly communicating their uncertainty about what they know, fearful of their audience's reaction. But what effect does communication of such epistemic uncertainty have? Empirical research...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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The Royal Society
2019-05-01
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| Series: | Royal Society Open Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsos.181870 |
| _version_ | 1818502239727124480 |
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| author | Anne Marthe van der Bles Sander van der Linden Alexandra L. J. Freeman James Mitchell Ana B. Galvao Lisa Zaval David J. Spiegelhalter |
| author_facet | Anne Marthe van der Bles Sander van der Linden Alexandra L. J. Freeman James Mitchell Ana B. Galvao Lisa Zaval David J. Spiegelhalter |
| author_sort | Anne Marthe van der Bles |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Uncertainty is an inherent part of knowledge, and yet in an era of contested expertise, many shy away from openly communicating their uncertainty about what they know, fearful of their audience's reaction. But what effect does communication of such epistemic uncertainty have? Empirical research is widely scattered across many disciplines. This interdisciplinary review structures and summarizes current practice and research across domains, combining a statistical and psychological perspective. This informs a framework for uncertainty communication in which we identify three objects of uncertainty—facts, numbers and science—and two levels of uncertainty: direct and indirect. An examination of current practices provides a scale of nine expressions of direct uncertainty. We discuss attempts to codify indirect uncertainty in terms of quality of the underlying evidence. We review the limited literature about the effects of communicating epistemic uncertainty on cognition, affect, trust and decision-making. While there is some evidence that communicating epistemic uncertainty does not necessarily affect audiences negatively, impact can vary between individuals and communication formats. Case studies in economic statistics and climate change illustrate our framework in action. We conclude with advice to guide both communicators and future researchers in this important but so far rather neglected field. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T21:07:14Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bb43dd57f98e4b838743dea7eeceab6c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2054-5703 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T21:07:14Z |
| publishDate | 2019-05-01 |
| publisher | The Royal Society |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Royal Society Open Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-bb43dd57f98e4b838743dea7eeceab6c2022-12-22T01:33:35ZengThe Royal SocietyRoyal Society Open Science2054-57032019-05-016510.1098/rsos.181870181870Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and scienceAnne Marthe van der BlesSander van der LindenAlexandra L. J. FreemanJames MitchellAna B. GalvaoLisa ZavalDavid J. SpiegelhalterUncertainty is an inherent part of knowledge, and yet in an era of contested expertise, many shy away from openly communicating their uncertainty about what they know, fearful of their audience's reaction. But what effect does communication of such epistemic uncertainty have? Empirical research is widely scattered across many disciplines. This interdisciplinary review structures and summarizes current practice and research across domains, combining a statistical and psychological perspective. This informs a framework for uncertainty communication in which we identify three objects of uncertainty—facts, numbers and science—and two levels of uncertainty: direct and indirect. An examination of current practices provides a scale of nine expressions of direct uncertainty. We discuss attempts to codify indirect uncertainty in terms of quality of the underlying evidence. We review the limited literature about the effects of communicating epistemic uncertainty on cognition, affect, trust and decision-making. While there is some evidence that communicating epistemic uncertainty does not necessarily affect audiences negatively, impact can vary between individuals and communication formats. Case studies in economic statistics and climate change illustrate our framework in action. We conclude with advice to guide both communicators and future researchers in this important but so far rather neglected field.https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsos.181870uncertainty communicationepistemic uncertaintyeconomic statisticsipccgrade |
| spellingShingle | Anne Marthe van der Bles Sander van der Linden Alexandra L. J. Freeman James Mitchell Ana B. Galvao Lisa Zaval David J. Spiegelhalter Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and science Royal Society Open Science uncertainty communication epistemic uncertainty economic statistics ipcc grade |
| title | Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and science |
| title_full | Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and science |
| title_fullStr | Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and science |
| title_full_unstemmed | Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and science |
| title_short | Communicating uncertainty about facts, numbers and science |
| title_sort | communicating uncertainty about facts numbers and science |
| topic | uncertainty communication epistemic uncertainty economic statistics ipcc grade |
| url | https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/pdf/10.1098/rsos.181870 |
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