Combined SAI-SHAO prediction of Earth Orientation Parameters since 2012 till 2017
As the participants of Earth Orientation Parameters Combination of Prediction Pilot Project (EOPC PPP), Sternberg Astronomical Institute of Moscow State University (SAI) and Shanghai Astronomical Observatory (SHAO) have accumulated ∼1800 days of Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) predictions since 2...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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KeAi Communications Co., Ltd.
2018-11-01
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| Series: | Geodesy and Geodynamics |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674984718300326 |
| _version_ | 1818912746551377920 |
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| author | Leonid Zotov Xueqing Xu Yonghong Zhou Arkadiy Skorobogatov |
| author_facet | Leonid Zotov Xueqing Xu Yonghong Zhou Arkadiy Skorobogatov |
| author_sort | Leonid Zotov |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | As the participants of Earth Orientation Parameters Combination of Prediction Pilot Project (EOPC PPP), Sternberg Astronomical Institute of Moscow State University (SAI) and Shanghai Astronomical Observatory (SHAO) have accumulated ∼1800 days of Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) predictions since 2012 till 2017, which were up to 90 days into the future, and made by four techniques: auto-regression (AR), least squares collocation (LSC), and neural network (NNET) forecasts from SAI, and least-squares plus auto-regression (LS + AR) forecast from SHAO. The predictions were finally combined into SAI-SHAO COMB EOP prediction. In this work we present five-year real-time statistics of the combined prediction and compare it with the uncertainties of IERS bulletin A predictions made by USNO. Keywords: EOP prediction, Error estimation, Combined forecast, Polar motion, UT1-UTC |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T23:19:30Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bb4731ad8d824e638fd061111132ea9e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1674-9847 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T23:19:30Z |
| publishDate | 2018-11-01 |
| publisher | KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geodesy and Geodynamics |
| spelling | doaj.art-bb4731ad8d824e638fd061111132ea9e2022-12-21T20:02:01ZengKeAi Communications Co., Ltd.Geodesy and Geodynamics1674-98472018-11-0196485490Combined SAI-SHAO prediction of Earth Orientation Parameters since 2012 till 2017Leonid Zotov0Xueqing Xu1Yonghong Zhou2Arkadiy Skorobogatov3Sternberg Astronomical Institute of Lomonosov Moscow State University, Moscow 119992, Russia; National Research University Higher School of Economics, Russia; Corresponding author. Sternberg Astronomical Institute of Moscow State University, Moscow 119992, Russia.Shanghai Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200030, ChinaShanghai Astronomical Observatory, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Shanghai 200030, ChinaNational Research University Higher School of Economics, RussiaAs the participants of Earth Orientation Parameters Combination of Prediction Pilot Project (EOPC PPP), Sternberg Astronomical Institute of Moscow State University (SAI) and Shanghai Astronomical Observatory (SHAO) have accumulated ∼1800 days of Earth Orientation Parameters (EOP) predictions since 2012 till 2017, which were up to 90 days into the future, and made by four techniques: auto-regression (AR), least squares collocation (LSC), and neural network (NNET) forecasts from SAI, and least-squares plus auto-regression (LS + AR) forecast from SHAO. The predictions were finally combined into SAI-SHAO COMB EOP prediction. In this work we present five-year real-time statistics of the combined prediction and compare it with the uncertainties of IERS bulletin A predictions made by USNO. Keywords: EOP prediction, Error estimation, Combined forecast, Polar motion, UT1-UTChttp://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674984718300326 |
| spellingShingle | Leonid Zotov Xueqing Xu Yonghong Zhou Arkadiy Skorobogatov Combined SAI-SHAO prediction of Earth Orientation Parameters since 2012 till 2017 Geodesy and Geodynamics |
| title | Combined SAI-SHAO prediction of Earth Orientation Parameters since 2012 till 2017 |
| title_full | Combined SAI-SHAO prediction of Earth Orientation Parameters since 2012 till 2017 |
| title_fullStr | Combined SAI-SHAO prediction of Earth Orientation Parameters since 2012 till 2017 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Combined SAI-SHAO prediction of Earth Orientation Parameters since 2012 till 2017 |
| title_short | Combined SAI-SHAO prediction of Earth Orientation Parameters since 2012 till 2017 |
| title_sort | combined sai shao prediction of earth orientation parameters since 2012 till 2017 |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674984718300326 |
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