Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack
In the event of a bioterror attack, rapidly estimating the size and time of attack enables short-run forecasts of the number of persons who will be symptomatic and require medical care. We present a Bayesian approach to this problem for use in real time and illustrate it with data from a simulated a...
| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
2004-07-01
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| Series: | Emerging Infectious Diseases |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/10/7/03-0632_article |
| _version_ | 1818284791344136192 |
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| author | Johan Walden Edward H. Kaplan |
| author_facet | Johan Walden Edward H. Kaplan |
| author_sort | Johan Walden |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In the event of a bioterror attack, rapidly estimating the size and time of attack enables short-run forecasts of the number of persons who will be symptomatic and require medical care. We present a Bayesian approach to this problem for use in real time and illustrate it with data from a simulated anthrax attack. The method is simple enough to be implemented in a spreadsheet. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-13T00:58:25Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bb53a2ecb35d43c08e341a3cb5a5e27c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1080-6040 1080-6059 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-13T00:58:25Z |
| publishDate | 2004-07-01 |
| publisher | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Emerging Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-bb53a2ecb35d43c08e341a3cb5a5e27c2022-12-22T00:04:45ZengCenters for Disease Control and PreventionEmerging Infectious Diseases1080-60401080-60592004-07-011071202120510.3201/eid1007.030632Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror AttackJohan WaldenEdward H. KaplanIn the event of a bioterror attack, rapidly estimating the size and time of attack enables short-run forecasts of the number of persons who will be symptomatic and require medical care. We present a Bayesian approach to this problem for use in real time and illustrate it with data from a simulated anthrax attack. The method is simple enough to be implemented in a spreadsheet.https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/10/7/03-0632_articleBioterrorismBayesian AnalysisBayesian Forecastsurveillanceanthraxperspective |
| spellingShingle | Johan Walden Edward H. Kaplan Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack Emerging Infectious Diseases Bioterrorism Bayesian Analysis Bayesian Forecast surveillance anthrax perspective |
| title | Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack |
| title_full | Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack |
| title_fullStr | Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack |
| title_short | Estimating Time and Size of Bioterror Attack |
| title_sort | estimating time and size of bioterror attack |
| topic | Bioterrorism Bayesian Analysis Bayesian Forecast surveillance anthrax perspective |
| url | https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/10/7/03-0632_article |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT johanwalden estimatingtimeandsizeofbioterrorattack AT edwardhkaplan estimatingtimeandsizeofbioterrorattack |