Predicting precipitation on the decadal timescale: A prototype climate service for the hydropower sector

Decadal predictions present an emerging opportunity for various socio-economic sectors affected by climate variability. However, the development of associated climate services is still in an incipient stage. This study focuses on developing a prototype climate service for an end-user in the hydropow...

Full description

Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: E.E. Tsartsali, P.J. Athanasiadis, S. Materia, A. Bellucci, D. Nicolì, S. Gualdi
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Elsevier 2023-12-01
Series:Climate Services
Subjects:
Online Access:http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000845
_version_ 1797450936257347584
author E.E. Tsartsali
P.J. Athanasiadis
S. Materia
A. Bellucci
D. Nicolì
S. Gualdi
author_facet E.E. Tsartsali
P.J. Athanasiadis
S. Materia
A. Bellucci
D. Nicolì
S. Gualdi
author_sort E.E. Tsartsali
collection DOAJ
description Decadal predictions present an emerging opportunity for various socio-economic sectors affected by climate variability. However, the development of associated climate services is still in an incipient stage. This study focuses on developing a prototype climate service for an end-user in the hydropower sector. The service aimed at predicting precipitation in three drainage basins (Guadalquivir, Ebro and Po) for the next ten years, and was developed in close collaboration with the user. In this paper we do not provide the real-time forecasts, but we focus on describing and evaluating the methods and the models used. Using a European multi-model ensemble, the predictive skill for precipitation is found to vary with the calendar season, the forecast range and the drainage basin considered, though it is generally low for the purposes of supporting such a climate service. To overcome this deficiency, a hybrid approach was developed making combined use of the good skill in predicting the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the observed dominant influence of the latter on the decadal variability of precipitation in the areas of interest. Implementing this hybrid approach, which combines predictive information from the dynamical models with statistical information from observations, brings significant skill improvements in all basins during the extended cold season (November-March) for the first 10 forecast years. The hybrid model outperforms the direct multi-model ensemble output, exhibiting statistically significant skill for all basins. Our results suggest that utilising large-scale predictors can significantly improve regional predictions, and provide usable information for the hydropower sector.
first_indexed 2024-03-09T14:46:46Z
format Article
id doaj.art-bb8eb6ff35d94cd180f51c764cdfa756
institution Directory Open Access Journal
issn 2405-8807
language English
last_indexed 2024-03-09T14:46:46Z
publishDate 2023-12-01
publisher Elsevier
record_format Article
series Climate Services
spelling doaj.art-bb8eb6ff35d94cd180f51c764cdfa7562023-11-27T04:14:57ZengElsevierClimate Services2405-88072023-12-0132100422Predicting precipitation on the decadal timescale: A prototype climate service for the hydropower sectorE.E. Tsartsali0P.J. Athanasiadis1S. Materia2A. Bellucci3D. Nicolì4S. Gualdi5Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy; Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy; Corresponding author.Fondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, ItalyFondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy; currently at: Barcelona Supercomputing Centre (BSC), Barcelona, SpainFondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, Italy; currently at: Istituto di Scienze dell’Atmosfera e del Clima - Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR-ISAC), Bologna, ItalyFondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, ItalyFondazione Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Bologna, ItalyDecadal predictions present an emerging opportunity for various socio-economic sectors affected by climate variability. However, the development of associated climate services is still in an incipient stage. This study focuses on developing a prototype climate service for an end-user in the hydropower sector. The service aimed at predicting precipitation in three drainage basins (Guadalquivir, Ebro and Po) for the next ten years, and was developed in close collaboration with the user. In this paper we do not provide the real-time forecasts, but we focus on describing and evaluating the methods and the models used. Using a European multi-model ensemble, the predictive skill for precipitation is found to vary with the calendar season, the forecast range and the drainage basin considered, though it is generally low for the purposes of supporting such a climate service. To overcome this deficiency, a hybrid approach was developed making combined use of the good skill in predicting the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the observed dominant influence of the latter on the decadal variability of precipitation in the areas of interest. Implementing this hybrid approach, which combines predictive information from the dynamical models with statistical information from observations, brings significant skill improvements in all basins during the extended cold season (November-March) for the first 10 forecast years. The hybrid model outperforms the direct multi-model ensemble output, exhibiting statistically significant skill for all basins. Our results suggest that utilising large-scale predictors can significantly improve regional predictions, and provide usable information for the hydropower sector.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000845Decadal predictionsClimate servicesHydropowerHybrid forecasts
spellingShingle E.E. Tsartsali
P.J. Athanasiadis
S. Materia
A. Bellucci
D. Nicolì
S. Gualdi
Predicting precipitation on the decadal timescale: A prototype climate service for the hydropower sector
Climate Services
Decadal predictions
Climate services
Hydropower
Hybrid forecasts
title Predicting precipitation on the decadal timescale: A prototype climate service for the hydropower sector
title_full Predicting precipitation on the decadal timescale: A prototype climate service for the hydropower sector
title_fullStr Predicting precipitation on the decadal timescale: A prototype climate service for the hydropower sector
title_full_unstemmed Predicting precipitation on the decadal timescale: A prototype climate service for the hydropower sector
title_short Predicting precipitation on the decadal timescale: A prototype climate service for the hydropower sector
title_sort predicting precipitation on the decadal timescale a prototype climate service for the hydropower sector
topic Decadal predictions
Climate services
Hydropower
Hybrid forecasts
url http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405880723000845
work_keys_str_mv AT eetsartsali predictingprecipitationonthedecadaltimescaleaprototypeclimateserviceforthehydropowersector
AT pjathanasiadis predictingprecipitationonthedecadaltimescaleaprototypeclimateserviceforthehydropowersector
AT smateria predictingprecipitationonthedecadaltimescaleaprototypeclimateserviceforthehydropowersector
AT abellucci predictingprecipitationonthedecadaltimescaleaprototypeclimateserviceforthehydropowersector
AT dnicoli predictingprecipitationonthedecadaltimescaleaprototypeclimateserviceforthehydropowersector
AT sgualdi predictingprecipitationonthedecadaltimescaleaprototypeclimateserviceforthehydropowersector