World Urbanization Prospects: an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with the mobility transition theory
This paper proposes to critically examine the United Nations projections on urbanisation. Both the estimates of current trends based on national data and the method of projection are evaluated. The theory of mobility transition is used as an alternative hypothesis. Projections are proposed using a p...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research
2005-05-01
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| Series: | Demographic Research |
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| Online Access: | http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol12/9/ |
| _version_ | 1818614225395777536 |
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| author | Philippe Bocquier |
| author_facet | Philippe Bocquier |
| author_sort | Philippe Bocquier |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This paper proposes to critically examine the United Nations projections on urbanisation. Both the estimates of current trends based on national data and the method of projection are evaluated. The theory of mobility transition is used as an alternative hypothesis. Projections are proposed using a polynomial model and compared to the UN projections, which are based on a linear model. The conclusion is that UN projections may overestimate the urban population for the year 2030 by almost one billion, or 19% in relative term. The overestimation would be particularly more pronounced for developing countries and may exceed 30% in Africa, India and Oceania. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-16T16:14:38Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bbab1f3af7ff4eb98a95ab1fe07a2f92 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1435-9871 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-16T16:14:38Z |
| publishDate | 2005-05-01 |
| publisher | Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Demographic Research |
| spelling | doaj.art-bbab1f3af7ff4eb98a95ab1fe07a2f922022-12-21T22:25:08ZengMax Planck Institute for Demographic ResearchDemographic Research1435-98712005-05-01129World Urbanization Prospects: an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with the mobility transition theoryPhilippe BocquierThis paper proposes to critically examine the United Nations projections on urbanisation. Both the estimates of current trends based on national data and the method of projection are evaluated. The theory of mobility transition is used as an alternative hypothesis. Projections are proposed using a polynomial model and compared to the UN projections, which are based on a linear model. The conclusion is that UN projections may overestimate the urban population for the year 2030 by almost one billion, or 19% in relative term. The overestimation would be particularly more pronounced for developing countries and may exceed 30% in Africa, India and Oceania.http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol12/9/developed countriesdeveloping countriesenvironmentmodelpovertyprojectionsurban transitionurbanization |
| spellingShingle | Philippe Bocquier World Urbanization Prospects: an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with the mobility transition theory Demographic Research developed countries developing countries environment model poverty projections urban transition urbanization |
| title | World Urbanization Prospects: an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with the mobility transition theory |
| title_full | World Urbanization Prospects: an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with the mobility transition theory |
| title_fullStr | World Urbanization Prospects: an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with the mobility transition theory |
| title_full_unstemmed | World Urbanization Prospects: an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with the mobility transition theory |
| title_short | World Urbanization Prospects: an alternative to the UN model of projection compatible with the mobility transition theory |
| title_sort | world urbanization prospects an alternative to the un model of projection compatible with the mobility transition theory |
| topic | developed countries developing countries environment model poverty projections urban transition urbanization |
| url | http://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol12/9/ |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT philippebocquier worldurbanizationprospectsanalternativetotheunmodelofprojectioncompatiblewiththemobilitytransitiontheory |