Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise with Convolution Based Gated Recurrent Neural Network: A New Deep Learning Model for South Asian High Intensity Forecasting
The intensity variation of the South Asian high (SAH) plays an important role in the formation and extinction of many kinds of mesoscale systems, including tropical cyclones, southwest vortices in the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region, and the precipitation in the whole Asia Europe region, and the S...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-05-01
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| Series: | Symmetry |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-8994/13/6/931 |
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| author | Kecheng Peng Xiaoqun Cao Bainian Liu Yanan Guo Wenlong Tian |
| author_facet | Kecheng Peng Xiaoqun Cao Bainian Liu Yanan Guo Wenlong Tian |
| author_sort | Kecheng Peng |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | The intensity variation of the South Asian high (SAH) plays an important role in the formation and extinction of many kinds of mesoscale systems, including tropical cyclones, southwest vortices in the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region, and the precipitation in the whole Asia Europe region, and the SAH has a vortex symmetrical structure; its dynamic field also has the symmetry form. Not enough previous studies focus on the variation of SAH daily intensity. The purpose of this study is to establish a day-to-day prediction model of the SAH intensity, which can accurately predict not only the interannual variation but also the day-to-day variation of the SAH. Focusing on the summer period when the SAH is the strongest, this paper selects the geopotential height data between 1948 and 2020 from NCEP to construct the SAH intensity datasets. Compared with the classical deep learning methods of various kinds of efficient time series prediction model, we ultimately combine the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) method, which has the ability to deal with the nonlinear and unstable single system, with the Permutation Entropy (PE) method, which can extract the SAH intensity feature of IMF decomposed by CEEMDAN, and the Convolution-based Gated Recurrent Neural Network (ConvGRU) model is used to train, test, and predict the intensity of the SAH. The prediction results show that the combination of CEEMDAN and ConvGRU can have a higher accuracy and more stable prediction ability than the traditional deep learning model. After removing the redundant features in the time series, the prediction accuracy of the SAH intensity is higher than that of the classical model, which proves that the method has good applicability for the prediction of nonlinear systems in the atmosphere. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T11:06:42Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bbb6be9dfd4f42b0a6c2f225959c9a4d |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-8994 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T11:06:42Z |
| publishDate | 2021-05-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Symmetry |
| spelling | doaj.art-bbb6be9dfd4f42b0a6c2f225959c9a4d2023-11-21T21:07:28ZengMDPI AGSymmetry2073-89942021-05-0113693110.3390/sym13060931Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise with Convolution Based Gated Recurrent Neural Network: A New Deep Learning Model for South Asian High Intensity ForecastingKecheng Peng0Xiaoqun Cao1Bainian Liu2Yanan Guo3Wenlong Tian4College of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, ChinaCollege of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, ChinaCollege of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, ChinaTrainer Simulation Training Center of Naval Aeronautical University, Huludao 125000, ChinaCollege of Meteorology and Oceanography, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073, ChinaThe intensity variation of the South Asian high (SAH) plays an important role in the formation and extinction of many kinds of mesoscale systems, including tropical cyclones, southwest vortices in the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) region, and the precipitation in the whole Asia Europe region, and the SAH has a vortex symmetrical structure; its dynamic field also has the symmetry form. Not enough previous studies focus on the variation of SAH daily intensity. The purpose of this study is to establish a day-to-day prediction model of the SAH intensity, which can accurately predict not only the interannual variation but also the day-to-day variation of the SAH. Focusing on the summer period when the SAH is the strongest, this paper selects the geopotential height data between 1948 and 2020 from NCEP to construct the SAH intensity datasets. Compared with the classical deep learning methods of various kinds of efficient time series prediction model, we ultimately combine the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) method, which has the ability to deal with the nonlinear and unstable single system, with the Permutation Entropy (PE) method, which can extract the SAH intensity feature of IMF decomposed by CEEMDAN, and the Convolution-based Gated Recurrent Neural Network (ConvGRU) model is used to train, test, and predict the intensity of the SAH. The prediction results show that the combination of CEEMDAN and ConvGRU can have a higher accuracy and more stable prediction ability than the traditional deep learning model. After removing the redundant features in the time series, the prediction accuracy of the SAH intensity is higher than that of the classical model, which proves that the method has good applicability for the prediction of nonlinear systems in the atmosphere.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-8994/13/6/931South Asian highensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noisepermutation entropyConvolution-based Gated Recurrent Neural Network |
| spellingShingle | Kecheng Peng Xiaoqun Cao Bainian Liu Yanan Guo Wenlong Tian Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise with Convolution Based Gated Recurrent Neural Network: A New Deep Learning Model for South Asian High Intensity Forecasting Symmetry South Asian high ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise permutation entropy Convolution-based Gated Recurrent Neural Network |
| title | Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise with Convolution Based Gated Recurrent Neural Network: A New Deep Learning Model for South Asian High Intensity Forecasting |
| title_full | Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise with Convolution Based Gated Recurrent Neural Network: A New Deep Learning Model for South Asian High Intensity Forecasting |
| title_fullStr | Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise with Convolution Based Gated Recurrent Neural Network: A New Deep Learning Model for South Asian High Intensity Forecasting |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise with Convolution Based Gated Recurrent Neural Network: A New Deep Learning Model for South Asian High Intensity Forecasting |
| title_short | Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise with Convolution Based Gated Recurrent Neural Network: A New Deep Learning Model for South Asian High Intensity Forecasting |
| title_sort | ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise with convolution based gated recurrent neural network a new deep learning model for south asian high intensity forecasting |
| topic | South Asian high ensemble empirical mode decomposition with adaptive noise permutation entropy Convolution-based Gated Recurrent Neural Network |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-8994/13/6/931 |
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