Quantifying Agroforestry Yield Buffering Potential Under Climate Change in the Smallholder Maize Farming Systems of Ethiopia
Agroforestry is a promising adaptation measure for climate change, especially for low external inputs smallholder maize farming systems. However, due to its long-term nature and heterogeneity across farms and landscapes, it is difficult to quantitatively evaluate its contribution in building the res...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2021-02-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Agronomy |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fagro.2021.609536/full |
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| author | Abel Chemura Amsalu Woldie Yalew Christoph Gornott Christoph Gornott |
| author_facet | Abel Chemura Amsalu Woldie Yalew Christoph Gornott Christoph Gornott |
| author_sort | Abel Chemura |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Agroforestry is a promising adaptation measure for climate change, especially for low external inputs smallholder maize farming systems. However, due to its long-term nature and heterogeneity across farms and landscapes, it is difficult to quantitatively evaluate its contribution in building the resilience of farming systems to climate change over large areas. In this study, we developed an approach to simulate and emulate the shading, micro-climate regulation and biomass effects of multi-purpose trees agroforestry system on maize yields using APSIM, taking Ethiopia as a case study. Applying the model to simulate climate change impacts showed that at national level, maize yield will increase by 7.5 and 3.1 % by 2050 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. This projected increase in national-level maize yield is driven by maize yield increases in six administrative zones whereas yield losses are expected in other five zones (mean of −6.8% for RCP2.6 and −11.7% for RCP8.5), with yields in the other four zones remaining stable overtime. Applying the emulated agroforestry leads to increase in maize yield under current and future climatic conditions compared to maize monocultures, particularly in regions for which yield losses under climate change are expected. A 10% agroforestry shade will reduce maize yield losses by 6.9% (RCP2.6) and 4.2 % (RCP8.5) while 20% shade will reduce maize yield losses by 11.5% (RCP2.6) and 11% (RCP8.5) for projected loss zones. Overall, our results show quantitatively that agroforestry buffers yield losses for areas projected to have yield losses under climate change in Ethiopia, and therefore should be part of building climate-resilient agricultural systems. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-19T08:00:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bbbefcd96e964863a83408c435764892 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2673-3218 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-19T08:00:13Z |
| publishDate | 2021-02-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Agronomy |
| spelling | doaj.art-bbbefcd96e964863a83408c4357648922022-12-21T20:29:53ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Agronomy2673-32182021-02-01310.3389/fagro.2021.609536609536Quantifying Agroforestry Yield Buffering Potential Under Climate Change in the Smallholder Maize Farming Systems of EthiopiaAbel Chemura0Amsalu Woldie Yalew1Christoph Gornott2Christoph Gornott3Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, GermanyAgroecosystem Analysis and Modelling, Faculty of Organic Agricultural Sciences, University of Kassel, Kassel, GermanyAgroforestry is a promising adaptation measure for climate change, especially for low external inputs smallholder maize farming systems. However, due to its long-term nature and heterogeneity across farms and landscapes, it is difficult to quantitatively evaluate its contribution in building the resilience of farming systems to climate change over large areas. In this study, we developed an approach to simulate and emulate the shading, micro-climate regulation and biomass effects of multi-purpose trees agroforestry system on maize yields using APSIM, taking Ethiopia as a case study. Applying the model to simulate climate change impacts showed that at national level, maize yield will increase by 7.5 and 3.1 % by 2050 under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively. This projected increase in national-level maize yield is driven by maize yield increases in six administrative zones whereas yield losses are expected in other five zones (mean of −6.8% for RCP2.6 and −11.7% for RCP8.5), with yields in the other four zones remaining stable overtime. Applying the emulated agroforestry leads to increase in maize yield under current and future climatic conditions compared to maize monocultures, particularly in regions for which yield losses under climate change are expected. A 10% agroforestry shade will reduce maize yield losses by 6.9% (RCP2.6) and 4.2 % (RCP8.5) while 20% shade will reduce maize yield losses by 11.5% (RCP2.6) and 11% (RCP8.5) for projected loss zones. Overall, our results show quantitatively that agroforestry buffers yield losses for areas projected to have yield losses under climate change in Ethiopia, and therefore should be part of building climate-resilient agricultural systems.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fagro.2021.609536/fullagroforestryprocess-based modelmaizeclimate changeEthiopia |
| spellingShingle | Abel Chemura Amsalu Woldie Yalew Christoph Gornott Christoph Gornott Quantifying Agroforestry Yield Buffering Potential Under Climate Change in the Smallholder Maize Farming Systems of Ethiopia Frontiers in Agronomy agroforestry process-based model maize climate change Ethiopia |
| title | Quantifying Agroforestry Yield Buffering Potential Under Climate Change in the Smallholder Maize Farming Systems of Ethiopia |
| title_full | Quantifying Agroforestry Yield Buffering Potential Under Climate Change in the Smallholder Maize Farming Systems of Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Quantifying Agroforestry Yield Buffering Potential Under Climate Change in the Smallholder Maize Farming Systems of Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantifying Agroforestry Yield Buffering Potential Under Climate Change in the Smallholder Maize Farming Systems of Ethiopia |
| title_short | Quantifying Agroforestry Yield Buffering Potential Under Climate Change in the Smallholder Maize Farming Systems of Ethiopia |
| title_sort | quantifying agroforestry yield buffering potential under climate change in the smallholder maize farming systems of ethiopia |
| topic | agroforestry process-based model maize climate change Ethiopia |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fagro.2021.609536/full |
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