Evaluation of Reservoir Inflows Using Semi-Distributed Hydrological Modeling Techniques: Application to the Esil and Moildy Rivers’ Catchments in Kazakhstan
This study explores the potential application of the HBV model for simulating water inflow into the Astana reservoir in Kazakhstan. The Astana reservoir, with an area of 60.9 km<sup>2</sup> and a capacity of 411 million m<sup>3</sup>, serves as a vital hydrotechnical structur...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-08-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/16/2967 |
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| author | Nurgalym T. Serikbay Tursyn A. Tillakarim Javier Rodrigo-Ilarri María-Elena Rodrigo-Clavero Kassym K. Duskayev |
| author_facet | Nurgalym T. Serikbay Tursyn A. Tillakarim Javier Rodrigo-Ilarri María-Elena Rodrigo-Clavero Kassym K. Duskayev |
| author_sort | Nurgalym T. Serikbay |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | This study explores the potential application of the HBV model for simulating water inflow into the Astana reservoir in Kazakhstan. The Astana reservoir, with an area of 60.9 km<sup>2</sup> and a capacity of 411 million m<sup>3</sup>, serves as a vital hydrotechnical structure for the regulation of long-term water resources. Positioned on the Esil River, this reservoir plays a crucial role in providing drinking water to Astana, the capital city of the Republic of Kazakhstan. This study presents a concise overview of the HBV model and includes hydrometeorological data as well as information from a digital elevation model constructed from altitude maps of the catchment areas of the Esil and Moildy rivers. To simulate the runoff from both rivers, the GAP optimization algorithm was employed. Model parameters were calibrated for the period spanning 1975 to 2020. The effectiveness of the model was evaluated using the Nash–Sutcliffe criterion, which confirms a strong correlation between the simulated runoff dynamics and observed data. This study’s outcomes reveal the efficiency of the selected optimal parameters, particularly for the 2020–2022 timeframe, during which the HBV model’s parameters were validated. Overall, the quality metrics achieved during both the calibration and validation periods are satisfactory, affirming the model’s suitability for short-term runoff forecasts, especially during flood events. Furthermore, the model proves valuable for assessing potential shifts in river runoff patterns under the influence of climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T23:30:02Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bc3a6003186643c395fa496ffec281cd |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T23:30:02Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-bc3a6003186643c395fa496ffec281cd2023-11-19T03:23:20ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412023-08-011516296710.3390/w15162967Evaluation of Reservoir Inflows Using Semi-Distributed Hydrological Modeling Techniques: Application to the Esil and Moildy Rivers’ Catchments in KazakhstanNurgalym T. Serikbay0Tursyn A. Tillakarim1Javier Rodrigo-Ilarri2María-Elena Rodrigo-Clavero3Kassym K. Duskayev4Department of Meteorology and Hydrology, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050000, KazakhstanDepartment of Meteorology and Hydrology, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050000, KazakhstanInstituto de Ingeniería del Agua y del Medio Ambiente (IIAMA), Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), 46022 Valencia, SpainInstituto de Ingeniería del Agua y del Medio Ambiente (IIAMA), Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV), 46022 Valencia, SpainDepartment of Meteorology and Hydrology, Al-Farabi Kazakh National University, Almaty 050000, KazakhstanThis study explores the potential application of the HBV model for simulating water inflow into the Astana reservoir in Kazakhstan. The Astana reservoir, with an area of 60.9 km<sup>2</sup> and a capacity of 411 million m<sup>3</sup>, serves as a vital hydrotechnical structure for the regulation of long-term water resources. Positioned on the Esil River, this reservoir plays a crucial role in providing drinking water to Astana, the capital city of the Republic of Kazakhstan. This study presents a concise overview of the HBV model and includes hydrometeorological data as well as information from a digital elevation model constructed from altitude maps of the catchment areas of the Esil and Moildy rivers. To simulate the runoff from both rivers, the GAP optimization algorithm was employed. Model parameters were calibrated for the period spanning 1975 to 2020. The effectiveness of the model was evaluated using the Nash–Sutcliffe criterion, which confirms a strong correlation between the simulated runoff dynamics and observed data. This study’s outcomes reveal the efficiency of the selected optimal parameters, particularly for the 2020–2022 timeframe, during which the HBV model’s parameters were validated. Overall, the quality metrics achieved during both the calibration and validation periods are satisfactory, affirming the model’s suitability for short-term runoff forecasts, especially during flood events. Furthermore, the model proves valuable for assessing potential shifts in river runoff patterns under the influence of climate change.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/16/2967hydrological modelingHBV-lightspring flood runoffEsil RiverMoildy River |
| spellingShingle | Nurgalym T. Serikbay Tursyn A. Tillakarim Javier Rodrigo-Ilarri María-Elena Rodrigo-Clavero Kassym K. Duskayev Evaluation of Reservoir Inflows Using Semi-Distributed Hydrological Modeling Techniques: Application to the Esil and Moildy Rivers’ Catchments in Kazakhstan Water hydrological modeling HBV-light spring flood runoff Esil River Moildy River |
| title | Evaluation of Reservoir Inflows Using Semi-Distributed Hydrological Modeling Techniques: Application to the Esil and Moildy Rivers’ Catchments in Kazakhstan |
| title_full | Evaluation of Reservoir Inflows Using Semi-Distributed Hydrological Modeling Techniques: Application to the Esil and Moildy Rivers’ Catchments in Kazakhstan |
| title_fullStr | Evaluation of Reservoir Inflows Using Semi-Distributed Hydrological Modeling Techniques: Application to the Esil and Moildy Rivers’ Catchments in Kazakhstan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Evaluation of Reservoir Inflows Using Semi-Distributed Hydrological Modeling Techniques: Application to the Esil and Moildy Rivers’ Catchments in Kazakhstan |
| title_short | Evaluation of Reservoir Inflows Using Semi-Distributed Hydrological Modeling Techniques: Application to the Esil and Moildy Rivers’ Catchments in Kazakhstan |
| title_sort | evaluation of reservoir inflows using semi distributed hydrological modeling techniques application to the esil and moildy rivers catchments in kazakhstan |
| topic | hydrological modeling HBV-light spring flood runoff Esil River Moildy River |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/16/2967 |
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