Testing the power-law hypothesis of the interconflict interval
Abstract War is an extreme form of collective human behaviour characterized by coordinated violence. We show that this nature of war is substantiated in the temporal patterns of conflict occurrence that obey power law. The focal metric is the interconflict interval (ICI), the interval between the en...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Nature Portfolio
2023-12-01
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| Series: | Scientific Reports |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-50002-w |
| _version_ | 1827399548719333376 |
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| author | Hiroshi Okamoto Iku Yoshimoto Sota Kato Budrul Ahsan Shuji Shinohara |
| author_facet | Hiroshi Okamoto Iku Yoshimoto Sota Kato Budrul Ahsan Shuji Shinohara |
| author_sort | Hiroshi Okamoto |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract War is an extreme form of collective human behaviour characterized by coordinated violence. We show that this nature of war is substantiated in the temporal patterns of conflict occurrence that obey power law. The focal metric is the interconflict interval (ICI), the interval between the end of a conflict in a dyad (i.e. a pair of states) and the start of the subsequent conflict in the same dyad. Using elaborate statistical tests, we confirmed that ICI samples compiled from the history of interstate conflicts from 1816 to 2014 followed a power-law distribution. We then demonstrate that the power-law properties of ICIs can be explained by a hypothetical model assuming an information-theoretic formulation of the Clausewitz thesis on war: the use of force is a means of interstate communication. Our findings help us to understand the nature of wars between regular states, the significance of which has increased since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-08T19:47:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bc3db36a1e7f43b6bd946654553b86c9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2045-2322 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-08T19:47:41Z |
| publishDate | 2023-12-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Scientific Reports |
| spelling | doaj.art-bc3db36a1e7f43b6bd946654553b86c92023-12-24T12:16:46ZengNature PortfolioScientific Reports2045-23222023-12-0113111810.1038/s41598-023-50002-wTesting the power-law hypothesis of the interconflict intervalHiroshi Okamoto0Iku Yoshimoto1Sota Kato2Budrul Ahsan3Shuji Shinohara4Department of Bioengineering, School of Engineering, The University of TokyoDepartment of Advanced Social and International Studies, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, The University of TokyoThe Tokyo Foundation for Policy ResearchThe Tokyo Foundation for Policy ResearchSchool of Science and Engineering, Tokyo Denki UniversityAbstract War is an extreme form of collective human behaviour characterized by coordinated violence. We show that this nature of war is substantiated in the temporal patterns of conflict occurrence that obey power law. The focal metric is the interconflict interval (ICI), the interval between the end of a conflict in a dyad (i.e. a pair of states) and the start of the subsequent conflict in the same dyad. Using elaborate statistical tests, we confirmed that ICI samples compiled from the history of interstate conflicts from 1816 to 2014 followed a power-law distribution. We then demonstrate that the power-law properties of ICIs can be explained by a hypothetical model assuming an information-theoretic formulation of the Clausewitz thesis on war: the use of force is a means of interstate communication. Our findings help us to understand the nature of wars between regular states, the significance of which has increased since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-50002-w |
| spellingShingle | Hiroshi Okamoto Iku Yoshimoto Sota Kato Budrul Ahsan Shuji Shinohara Testing the power-law hypothesis of the interconflict interval Scientific Reports |
| title | Testing the power-law hypothesis of the interconflict interval |
| title_full | Testing the power-law hypothesis of the interconflict interval |
| title_fullStr | Testing the power-law hypothesis of the interconflict interval |
| title_full_unstemmed | Testing the power-law hypothesis of the interconflict interval |
| title_short | Testing the power-law hypothesis of the interconflict interval |
| title_sort | testing the power law hypothesis of the interconflict interval |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-023-50002-w |
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