| Summary: | Background and ObjectiveEarly identification is important for timely Alzheimer’s disease (AD) treatment. Apolipoprotein E ε4 allele (APOE-ε4) is an important genetic risk factor for sporadic AD. The AD-Resemblance Atrophy Index (RAI)—a structural magnetic resonance imaging-derived composite index—was found to predict the risk of progression from mild cognitive impairment (MCI) to AD. Therefore, we investigated whether the AD-RAI can predict cognitive decline and progression to AD in patients with MCI carrying APOE ε4.MethodsWe included 733 participants with MCI from the Alzheimer’s Disease Neuroimaging Initiative Database (ADNI). Their APOE genotypes, cognitive performance, and levels of AD-RAI were assessed at baseline and follow-up. Linear regression models were used to test the correlations between the AD-RAI and baseline cognitive measures, and linear mixed models with random intercepts and slopes were applied to investigate whether AD-RAI and APOE-ε4 can predict the level of cognitive decline. Cox proportional risk regression models were used to test the association of AD-RAI and APOE status with the progression from MCI to AD.ResultsThe baseline AD-RAI was higher in the MCI converted to AD group than in the MCI stable group (P < 0.001). The AD-RAI was significantly correlated with cognition, and had a synergistic effect with APOE-ε4 to predict the rate of cognitive decline. The AD-RAI predicted the risk and timing of MCI progression to AD. Based on the MCI population carrying APOE-ε4, the median time to progression from MCI to AD was 24 months if the AD-RAI > 0.5, while the median time to progression from MCI to AD was 96 months for patients with an AD-RAI ≤ 0.5.ConclusionThe AD-RAI can predict the risk of progression to AD in people with MCI carrying APOE ε4, is strongly correlated with cognition, and can predict cognitive decline.
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