Prediction of high-speed train delay propagation based on causal text information
Abstract The delay-causing text data contain valuable information such as the specific reasons for the delay, location and time of the disturbance, which can provide an efficient support for the prediction of train delays and improve the guidance of train control efficiency. Based on the train opera...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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SpringerOpen
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Railway Engineering Science |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1007/s40534-022-00286-x |
| _version_ | 1797865696780091392 |
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| author | Qianyi Liu Shengjie Wang Zhongcan Li Li Li Jun Zhang Chao Wen |
| author_facet | Qianyi Liu Shengjie Wang Zhongcan Li Li Li Jun Zhang Chao Wen |
| author_sort | Qianyi Liu |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract The delay-causing text data contain valuable information such as the specific reasons for the delay, location and time of the disturbance, which can provide an efficient support for the prediction of train delays and improve the guidance of train control efficiency. Based on the train operation data and delay-causing data of the Wuhan–Guangzhou high-speed railway, the relevant algorithms in the natural language processing field are used to process the delay-causing text data. It also integrates the train operating-environment information and delay-causing text information so as to develop a cause-based train delay propagation prediction model. The Word2vec model is first used to vectorize the delay-causing text description after word segmentation. The mean model or the term frequency-inverse document frequency-weighted model is then used to generate the delay-causing sentence vector based on the original word vector. Afterward, the train operating-environment features and delay-causing sentence vector are input into the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) regression algorithm to develop a delay propagation prediction model. In this work, 4 text feature processing methods and 8 regression algorithms are considered. The results demonstrate that the XGBoost regression algorithm has the highest prediction accuracy using the test features processed by the continuous bag of words and the mean models. Compared with the prediction model that only considers the train-operating-environment features, the results show that the prediction accuracy of the model is significantly improved with multiple regression algorithms after integrating the delay-causing feature. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T23:12:18Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bc961722e0504cf0a0b1ec34b6673eb1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2662-4745 2662-4753 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T23:12:18Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
| publisher | SpringerOpen |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Railway Engineering Science |
| spelling | doaj.art-bc961722e0504cf0a0b1ec34b6673eb12023-03-22T10:20:37ZengSpringerOpenRailway Engineering Science2662-47452662-47532022-09-013118910610.1007/s40534-022-00286-xPrediction of high-speed train delay propagation based on causal text informationQianyi Liu0Shengjie Wang1Zhongcan Li2Li Li3Jun Zhang4Chao Wen5National Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology, Southwest Jiaotong UniversityNational Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology, Southwest Jiaotong UniversityNational Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology, Southwest Jiaotong UniversityNational Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology, Southwest Jiaotong UniversityChina Railway Chengdu Group Co., LtdNational Engineering Laboratory of Integrated Transportation Big Data Application Technology, Southwest Jiaotong UniversityAbstract The delay-causing text data contain valuable information such as the specific reasons for the delay, location and time of the disturbance, which can provide an efficient support for the prediction of train delays and improve the guidance of train control efficiency. Based on the train operation data and delay-causing data of the Wuhan–Guangzhou high-speed railway, the relevant algorithms in the natural language processing field are used to process the delay-causing text data. It also integrates the train operating-environment information and delay-causing text information so as to develop a cause-based train delay propagation prediction model. The Word2vec model is first used to vectorize the delay-causing text description after word segmentation. The mean model or the term frequency-inverse document frequency-weighted model is then used to generate the delay-causing sentence vector based on the original word vector. Afterward, the train operating-environment features and delay-causing sentence vector are input into the extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) regression algorithm to develop a delay propagation prediction model. In this work, 4 text feature processing methods and 8 regression algorithms are considered. The results demonstrate that the XGBoost regression algorithm has the highest prediction accuracy using the test features processed by the continuous bag of words and the mean models. Compared with the prediction model that only considers the train-operating-environment features, the results show that the prediction accuracy of the model is significantly improved with multiple regression algorithms after integrating the delay-causing feature.https://doi.org/10.1007/s40534-022-00286-xHigh-speed railDelay propagationCause of delayWord2vecNatural language processing |
| spellingShingle | Qianyi Liu Shengjie Wang Zhongcan Li Li Li Jun Zhang Chao Wen Prediction of high-speed train delay propagation based on causal text information Railway Engineering Science High-speed rail Delay propagation Cause of delay Word2vec Natural language processing |
| title | Prediction of high-speed train delay propagation based on causal text information |
| title_full | Prediction of high-speed train delay propagation based on causal text information |
| title_fullStr | Prediction of high-speed train delay propagation based on causal text information |
| title_full_unstemmed | Prediction of high-speed train delay propagation based on causal text information |
| title_short | Prediction of high-speed train delay propagation based on causal text information |
| title_sort | prediction of high speed train delay propagation based on causal text information |
| topic | High-speed rail Delay propagation Cause of delay Word2vec Natural language processing |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/s40534-022-00286-x |
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