Machine learning prediction of Gleason grade group upgrade between in-bore biopsy and radical prostatectomy pathology

Abstract This study aimed to enhance the accuracy of Gleason grade group (GG) upgrade prediction in prostate cancer (PCa) patients who underwent MRI-guided in-bore biopsy (MRGB) and radical prostatectomy (RP) through a combined analysis of prebiopsy and MRGB clinical data. A retrospective analysis o...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: Kaan Ozbozduman, Irem Loc, Selahattin Durmaz, Duygu Atasoy, Mert Kilic, Hakan Yildirim, Tarik Esen, Metin Vural, M. Burcin Unlu
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: Nature Portfolio 2024-03-01
Series:Scientific Reports
Online Access:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-024-56415-5
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Summary:Abstract This study aimed to enhance the accuracy of Gleason grade group (GG) upgrade prediction in prostate cancer (PCa) patients who underwent MRI-guided in-bore biopsy (MRGB) and radical prostatectomy (RP) through a combined analysis of prebiopsy and MRGB clinical data. A retrospective analysis of 95 patients with prostate cancer diagnosed by MRGB was conducted where all patients had undergone RP. Among the patients, 64.2% had consistent GG results between in-bore biopsies and RP, whereas 28.4% had upgraded and 7.4% had downgraded results. GG1 biopsy results, lower biopsy core count, and fewer positive cores were correlated with upgrades in the entire patient group. In patients with $$\hbox {GG}>1$$ GG > 1 , larger tumor sizes and fewer biopsy cores were associated with upgrades. By integrating MRGB data with prebiopsy clinical data, machine learning (ML) models achieved 85.6% accuracy in predicting upgrades, surpassing the 64.2% baseline from MRGB alone. ML analysis also highlighted the value of the minimum apparent diffusion coefficient ( $$\hbox {ADC}_{\text{min}}$$ ADC min ) for $$\hbox {GG}>1$$ GG > 1 patients. Incorporation of MRGB results with tumor size, $$\hbox {ADC}_{\text{min}}$$ ADC min value, number of biopsy cores, positive core count, and Gleason grade can be useful to predict GG upgrade at final pathology and guide patient selection for active surveillance.
ISSN:2045-2322