The emergence of anthropogenic signal in mean and extreme precipitation trend over China by using two large ensembles
Anthropogenic warming may impact mean and extreme precipitation trends by enhancing the water cycle, potentially bringing threats to human societies. The design of national-level policy for disaster prevention and mitigation depends on the reliable detection of anthropogenic forcing in mean and extr...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd26d |
| _version_ | 1797747886063091712 |
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| author | Wei Li Yang Chen Weilin Chen |
| author_facet | Wei Li Yang Chen Weilin Chen |
| author_sort | Wei Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Anthropogenic warming may impact mean and extreme precipitation trends by enhancing the water cycle, potentially bringing threats to human societies. The design of national-level policy for disaster prevention and mitigation depends on the reliable detection of anthropogenic forcing in mean and extreme precipitation changes there. The anthropogenic signal might be obscured by strong internal variability at a regional scale. The goal of this study is to investigate the emergence of anthropogenic signal in mean and extreme precipitation trends across China by using two large ensembles (CanESM2-LE and Community Earth System Model (CESM)-LE) of simulations during 1961–2010. Results show that the signal could not be detected in either mean or extreme precipitation trend during the current climate period (1961–2010). Following the RCP8.5 scenario, the signal is projected to emerge in mean precipitation around the 2020s and 2030s in the CanESM2-LE and CESM-LE, respectively, much earlier than in extreme precipitation. For extreme precipitation, the signal could be steadily detected no earlier than the 2030s for CanESM2-LE and the 2040s for CESM-LE. These projected times of emergence in precipitation changes highlight the urgency of preparing for an uncharted hydrological future dominated by anthropogenic warming. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:57:02Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bcb485aac61f4efb91882fac0fd67ed2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:57:02Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-bcb485aac61f4efb91882fac0fd67ed22023-08-09T14:52:25ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262021-01-0116101405210.1088/1748-9326/abd26dThe emergence of anthropogenic signal in mean and extreme precipitation trend over China by using two large ensemblesWei Li0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3561-7345Yang Chen1https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1765-3783Weilin Chen2Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology , Nanjing, People’s Republic of ChinaState Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences , Beijing, People’s Republic of China; Technical Support Unit, Working Group‐I, IPCC, Université Paris Saclay , Paris, FranceKey Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change, Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disaster, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology , Nanjing, People’s Republic of ChinaAnthropogenic warming may impact mean and extreme precipitation trends by enhancing the water cycle, potentially bringing threats to human societies. The design of national-level policy for disaster prevention and mitigation depends on the reliable detection of anthropogenic forcing in mean and extreme precipitation changes there. The anthropogenic signal might be obscured by strong internal variability at a regional scale. The goal of this study is to investigate the emergence of anthropogenic signal in mean and extreme precipitation trends across China by using two large ensembles (CanESM2-LE and Community Earth System Model (CESM)-LE) of simulations during 1961–2010. Results show that the signal could not be detected in either mean or extreme precipitation trend during the current climate period (1961–2010). Following the RCP8.5 scenario, the signal is projected to emerge in mean precipitation around the 2020s and 2030s in the CanESM2-LE and CESM-LE, respectively, much earlier than in extreme precipitation. For extreme precipitation, the signal could be steadily detected no earlier than the 2030s for CanESM2-LE and the 2040s for CESM-LE. These projected times of emergence in precipitation changes highlight the urgency of preparing for an uncharted hydrological future dominated by anthropogenic warming.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd26dmean and extreme precipitationlarge ensemble simulationstime of emergenceanthropogenic signal |
| spellingShingle | Wei Li Yang Chen Weilin Chen The emergence of anthropogenic signal in mean and extreme precipitation trend over China by using two large ensembles Environmental Research Letters mean and extreme precipitation large ensemble simulations time of emergence anthropogenic signal |
| title | The emergence of anthropogenic signal in mean and extreme precipitation trend over China by using two large ensembles |
| title_full | The emergence of anthropogenic signal in mean and extreme precipitation trend over China by using two large ensembles |
| title_fullStr | The emergence of anthropogenic signal in mean and extreme precipitation trend over China by using two large ensembles |
| title_full_unstemmed | The emergence of anthropogenic signal in mean and extreme precipitation trend over China by using two large ensembles |
| title_short | The emergence of anthropogenic signal in mean and extreme precipitation trend over China by using two large ensembles |
| title_sort | emergence of anthropogenic signal in mean and extreme precipitation trend over china by using two large ensembles |
| topic | mean and extreme precipitation large ensemble simulations time of emergence anthropogenic signal |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abd26d |
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