Spatiotemporal epidemiology of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province, China, 2005–2015
Abstract Background A marked increase in the incidence rate of scarlet fever imposed a considerable burden on the health of children aged 5 to 15 years. The main purpose of this study was to depict the spatiotemporal epidemiological characteristics of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province, China in orde...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2017-08-01
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| Series: | BMC Infectious Diseases |
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| Online Access: | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12879-017-2681-5 |
| _version_ | 1818502371975626752 |
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| author | Qi Zhang Wendong Liu Wang Ma Yingying Shi Ying Wu Yuan Li Shuyi Liang Yefei Zhu Minghao Zhou |
| author_facet | Qi Zhang Wendong Liu Wang Ma Yingying Shi Ying Wu Yuan Li Shuyi Liang Yefei Zhu Minghao Zhou |
| author_sort | Qi Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background A marked increase in the incidence rate of scarlet fever imposed a considerable burden on the health of children aged 5 to 15 years. The main purpose of this study was to depict the spatiotemporal epidemiological characteristics of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province, China in order to develop and implement effective scientific prevention and control strategies. Methods Smoothed map was used to demonstrate the spatial distribution of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province. In addition, a retrospective space-time analysis based on a discrete Poisson model was utilized to detect clusters of scarlet fever from 2005 to 2015. Results During the years 2005–2015, a total of 15,873 scarlet fever cases occurred in Jiangsu Province, with an average annual incidence rate of 1.87 per 100,000. A majority of the cases (83.67%) occurred in children aged 3 to 9 years. Each year, two seasonal incidence peaks were observed, the higher occurring between March and July, the lower between November and the following January. The incidence in the southern regions of the province was generally higher than that in the northern regions. Seven clusters, all of which occurred during incidence peaks, were detected via space-time scan statistical analysis. The most likely cluster and one of the secondary clusters were detected in the southern and northern high endemic regions, respectively. Conclusion The prevalence of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province had a marked seasonality variation and was relatively endemic in some regions. Children aged 3 to 9 years were the major victims of this disease, and kindergartens and primary schools were the focus of surveillance and control. Targeted strategies and measures should be taken to reduce the incidence. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T21:09:22Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bccca1892b58462a84d68f9f90718c6e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2334 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T21:09:22Z |
| publishDate | 2017-08-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-bccca1892b58462a84d68f9f90718c6e2022-12-22T01:33:32ZengBMCBMC Infectious Diseases1471-23342017-08-011711610.1186/s12879-017-2681-5Spatiotemporal epidemiology of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province, China, 2005–2015Qi Zhang0Wendong Liu1Wang Ma2Yingying Shi3Ying Wu4Yuan Li5Shuyi Liang6Yefei Zhu7Minghao Zhou8Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical UniversityJiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and PreventionDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical UniversityJiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and PreventionJiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and PreventionJiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and PreventionJiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and PreventionThe Second Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing Medical UniversityDepartment of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Nanjing Medical UniversityAbstract Background A marked increase in the incidence rate of scarlet fever imposed a considerable burden on the health of children aged 5 to 15 years. The main purpose of this study was to depict the spatiotemporal epidemiological characteristics of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province, China in order to develop and implement effective scientific prevention and control strategies. Methods Smoothed map was used to demonstrate the spatial distribution of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province. In addition, a retrospective space-time analysis based on a discrete Poisson model was utilized to detect clusters of scarlet fever from 2005 to 2015. Results During the years 2005–2015, a total of 15,873 scarlet fever cases occurred in Jiangsu Province, with an average annual incidence rate of 1.87 per 100,000. A majority of the cases (83.67%) occurred in children aged 3 to 9 years. Each year, two seasonal incidence peaks were observed, the higher occurring between March and July, the lower between November and the following January. The incidence in the southern regions of the province was generally higher than that in the northern regions. Seven clusters, all of which occurred during incidence peaks, were detected via space-time scan statistical analysis. The most likely cluster and one of the secondary clusters were detected in the southern and northern high endemic regions, respectively. Conclusion The prevalence of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province had a marked seasonality variation and was relatively endemic in some regions. Children aged 3 to 9 years were the major victims of this disease, and kindergartens and primary schools were the focus of surveillance and control. Targeted strategies and measures should be taken to reduce the incidence.http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12879-017-2681-5Scarlet feverSpatiotemporal analysisEpidemiology |
| spellingShingle | Qi Zhang Wendong Liu Wang Ma Yingying Shi Ying Wu Yuan Li Shuyi Liang Yefei Zhu Minghao Zhou Spatiotemporal epidemiology of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province, China, 2005–2015 BMC Infectious Diseases Scarlet fever Spatiotemporal analysis Epidemiology |
| title | Spatiotemporal epidemiology of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province, China, 2005–2015 |
| title_full | Spatiotemporal epidemiology of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province, China, 2005–2015 |
| title_fullStr | Spatiotemporal epidemiology of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province, China, 2005–2015 |
| title_full_unstemmed | Spatiotemporal epidemiology of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province, China, 2005–2015 |
| title_short | Spatiotemporal epidemiology of scarlet fever in Jiangsu Province, China, 2005–2015 |
| title_sort | spatiotemporal epidemiology of scarlet fever in jiangsu province china 2005 2015 |
| topic | Scarlet fever Spatiotemporal analysis Epidemiology |
| url | http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186/s12879-017-2681-5 |
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