Mathematical Modeling and backward bifurcation in monkeypox disease under real observed data
We propose a mathematical model to analyze the monkeypox disease in the context of the known cases of the USA epidemic. We formulate the model and obtain their essential properties. The equilibrium points are found and their stability is demonstrated. We prove that the model is locally asymptotical...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Elsevier
2023-07-01
|
| Series: | Results in Physics |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211379723003509 |
| _version_ | 1797802262640197632 |
|---|---|
| author | F.M. Allehiany Mahmoud H. DarAssi Irfan Ahmad Muhammad Altaf Khan Elsayed M. Tag-eldin |
| author_facet | F.M. Allehiany Mahmoud H. DarAssi Irfan Ahmad Muhammad Altaf Khan Elsayed M. Tag-eldin |
| author_sort | F.M. Allehiany |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | We propose a mathematical model to analyze the monkeypox disease in the context of the known cases of the USA epidemic. We formulate the model and obtain their essential properties. The equilibrium points are found and their stability is demonstrated. We prove that the model is locally asymptotical stable (LAS) at disease free equilibrium (DFE) under R0<1. The presence of an endemic equilibrium is demonstrated, and the phenomena of backward bifurcation is discovered in the monkeypox disease model. In the monkeypox infectious disease model, the parameters that lead to backward bifurcation are θr, τ1, and ξr. When R0>1, we determine the model’s global asymptotical stability (GAS). To parameterize the model using real data, we obtain the real value of the model parameters and compute R1=0.5905. Additionally, we do a sensitivity analysis on the parameters in R0. We conclude by presenting specific numerical findings. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T05:03:13Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bcec2d633b88407092d2cdcc8d6f2d52 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2211-3797 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T05:03:13Z |
| publishDate | 2023-07-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Results in Physics |
| spelling | doaj.art-bcec2d633b88407092d2cdcc8d6f2d522023-06-17T05:18:09ZengElsevierResults in Physics2211-37972023-07-0150106557Mathematical Modeling and backward bifurcation in monkeypox disease under real observed dataF.M. Allehiany0Mahmoud H. DarAssi1Irfan Ahmad2Muhammad Altaf Khan3Elsayed M. Tag-eldin4Department of Mathematical Sciences, College of Applied Sciences, Umm Al-Qura University, Saudi ArabiaDepartment of Basic Sciences, Princess Sumaya University for Technology, Amman 11941, JordanDepartment of Clinical Laboratory Sciences, College of Applied Medical Science, King Khalid University, Abha 61421, Saudi ArabiaFaculty of Natural and Agricultural Sciences, University of the Free State, South Africa; Corresponding author.Faculty of Engineering, Future University in Egypt, New Cairo 11835, EgyptWe propose a mathematical model to analyze the monkeypox disease in the context of the known cases of the USA epidemic. We formulate the model and obtain their essential properties. The equilibrium points are found and their stability is demonstrated. We prove that the model is locally asymptotical stable (LAS) at disease free equilibrium (DFE) under R0<1. The presence of an endemic equilibrium is demonstrated, and the phenomena of backward bifurcation is discovered in the monkeypox disease model. In the monkeypox infectious disease model, the parameters that lead to backward bifurcation are θr, τ1, and ξr. When R0>1, we determine the model’s global asymptotical stability (GAS). To parameterize the model using real data, we obtain the real value of the model parameters and compute R1=0.5905. Additionally, we do a sensitivity analysis on the parameters in R0. We conclude by presenting specific numerical findings.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211379723003509Mathematical modelMonkeypox diseaseOutbreak dataEquilibrium pointsGlobal stabilityNumerical results |
| spellingShingle | F.M. Allehiany Mahmoud H. DarAssi Irfan Ahmad Muhammad Altaf Khan Elsayed M. Tag-eldin Mathematical Modeling and backward bifurcation in monkeypox disease under real observed data Results in Physics Mathematical model Monkeypox disease Outbreak data Equilibrium points Global stability Numerical results |
| title | Mathematical Modeling and backward bifurcation in monkeypox disease under real observed data |
| title_full | Mathematical Modeling and backward bifurcation in monkeypox disease under real observed data |
| title_fullStr | Mathematical Modeling and backward bifurcation in monkeypox disease under real observed data |
| title_full_unstemmed | Mathematical Modeling and backward bifurcation in monkeypox disease under real observed data |
| title_short | Mathematical Modeling and backward bifurcation in monkeypox disease under real observed data |
| title_sort | mathematical modeling and backward bifurcation in monkeypox disease under real observed data |
| topic | Mathematical model Monkeypox disease Outbreak data Equilibrium points Global stability Numerical results |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2211379723003509 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT fmallehiany mathematicalmodelingandbackwardbifurcationinmonkeypoxdiseaseunderrealobserveddata AT mahmoudhdarassi mathematicalmodelingandbackwardbifurcationinmonkeypoxdiseaseunderrealobserveddata AT irfanahmad mathematicalmodelingandbackwardbifurcationinmonkeypoxdiseaseunderrealobserveddata AT muhammadaltafkhan mathematicalmodelingandbackwardbifurcationinmonkeypoxdiseaseunderrealobserveddata AT elsayedmtageldin mathematicalmodelingandbackwardbifurcationinmonkeypoxdiseaseunderrealobserveddata |