Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Survival in Gallbladder Cancer Patients With Recurrence After Surgery
BackgroundThe management of gallbladder cancer (GBC) patients with recurrence who need additional therapy or intensive follow-up remains controversial. Therefore, we aim to develop a nomogram to predict survival in GBC patients with recurrence after surgery.MethodsA total of 313 GBC patients with re...
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Oncology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2020.537789/full |
| _version_ | 1818728558811414528 |
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| author | Mingyu Chen Mingyu Chen Shijie Li Win Topatana Xiaozhong Lv Jiasheng Cao Jiahao Hu Jian Lin Sarun Juengpanich Jiliang Shen Xiujun Cai Xiujun Cai |
| author_facet | Mingyu Chen Mingyu Chen Shijie Li Win Topatana Xiaozhong Lv Jiasheng Cao Jiahao Hu Jian Lin Sarun Juengpanich Jiliang Shen Xiujun Cai Xiujun Cai |
| author_sort | Mingyu Chen |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | BackgroundThe management of gallbladder cancer (GBC) patients with recurrence who need additional therapy or intensive follow-up remains controversial. Therefore, we aim to develop a nomogram to predict survival in GBC patients with recurrence after surgery.MethodsA total of 313 GBC patients with recurrence from our center was identified as a primary cohort, which were randomly divided into a training cohort (N = 209) and an internal validation cohort (N = 104). In addition, 105 patients from other centers were selected as an external validation cohort. Independent prognostic factors, identified by univariate and multivariable analysis, were used to construct a nomogram. The performance of this nomogram was measured using Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves.ResultsOur nomogram was established by four factors, including time-to-recurrence, site of recurrence, CA19-9 at recurrence, and treatment of recurrence. The C-index of this nomogram in the training, internal and external validation cohort was 0.871, 0.812, and 0.754, respectively. The calibration curves showed an optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. Notably, this nomogram could accurately stratify patients into different risk subgroups, which allowed more significant distinction of Kaplan-Meier curves than that of using T category. The 3-year post-recurrence survival (PRS) rates in the low-, medium-, and high-risk subgroups from the external validation cohort were 53.3, 26.2, and 4.1%, respectively.ConclusionThis nomogram provides a tool to predict 1- and 3-year PRS rates in GBC patients with recurrence after surgery. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-17T22:31:55Z |
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| issn | 2234-943X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-17T22:31:55Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
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| series | Frontiers in Oncology |
| spelling | doaj.art-bd723a5054724d44b195551d28bcc3c62022-12-21T21:30:11ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Oncology2234-943X2021-01-011010.3389/fonc.2020.537789537789Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Survival in Gallbladder Cancer Patients With Recurrence After SurgeryMingyu Chen0Mingyu Chen1Shijie Li2Win Topatana3Xiaozhong Lv4Jiasheng Cao5Jiahao Hu6Jian Lin7Sarun Juengpanich8Jiliang Shen9Xiujun Cai10Xiujun Cai11Department of General Surgery, Sir Run-Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, ChinaEngineering Research Center of Cognitive Healthcare of Zhejiang Province, Hangzhou, ChinaDepartment of General Surgery, Sir Run-Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, ChinaZhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, ChinaDepartment of General Surgery, First People’s Hospital, Mudanjiang, ChinaDepartment of General Surgery, Sir Run-Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, ChinaDepartment of General Surgery, Sir Run-Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, ChinaDepartment of General Surgery, Longyou People’s Hospital, Quzhou, ChinaZhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, ChinaDepartment of General Surgery, Sir Run-Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, ChinaDepartment of General Surgery, Sir Run-Run Shaw Hospital, Zhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, ChinaZhejiang University School of Medicine, Hangzhou, ChinaBackgroundThe management of gallbladder cancer (GBC) patients with recurrence who need additional therapy or intensive follow-up remains controversial. Therefore, we aim to develop a nomogram to predict survival in GBC patients with recurrence after surgery.MethodsA total of 313 GBC patients with recurrence from our center was identified as a primary cohort, which were randomly divided into a training cohort (N = 209) and an internal validation cohort (N = 104). In addition, 105 patients from other centers were selected as an external validation cohort. Independent prognostic factors, identified by univariate and multivariable analysis, were used to construct a nomogram. The performance of this nomogram was measured using Harrell’s concordance index (C-index) and calibration curves.ResultsOur nomogram was established by four factors, including time-to-recurrence, site of recurrence, CA19-9 at recurrence, and treatment of recurrence. The C-index of this nomogram in the training, internal and external validation cohort was 0.871, 0.812, and 0.754, respectively. The calibration curves showed an optimal agreement between nomogram prediction and actual observation. Notably, this nomogram could accurately stratify patients into different risk subgroups, which allowed more significant distinction of Kaplan-Meier curves than that of using T category. The 3-year post-recurrence survival (PRS) rates in the low-, medium-, and high-risk subgroups from the external validation cohort were 53.3, 26.2, and 4.1%, respectively.ConclusionThis nomogram provides a tool to predict 1- and 3-year PRS rates in GBC patients with recurrence after surgery.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2020.537789/fullgallbladder cancerrecurrencesurvivalnomogramprognostic model |
| spellingShingle | Mingyu Chen Mingyu Chen Shijie Li Win Topatana Xiaozhong Lv Jiasheng Cao Jiahao Hu Jian Lin Sarun Juengpanich Jiliang Shen Xiujun Cai Xiujun Cai Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Survival in Gallbladder Cancer Patients With Recurrence After Surgery Frontiers in Oncology gallbladder cancer recurrence survival nomogram prognostic model |
| title | Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Survival in Gallbladder Cancer Patients With Recurrence After Surgery |
| title_full | Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Survival in Gallbladder Cancer Patients With Recurrence After Surgery |
| title_fullStr | Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Survival in Gallbladder Cancer Patients With Recurrence After Surgery |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Survival in Gallbladder Cancer Patients With Recurrence After Surgery |
| title_short | Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Survival in Gallbladder Cancer Patients With Recurrence After Surgery |
| title_sort | development and validation of a nomogram for predicting survival in gallbladder cancer patients with recurrence after surgery |
| topic | gallbladder cancer recurrence survival nomogram prognostic model |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fonc.2020.537789/full |
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