Estimated Zika virus importations to Europe by travellers from Brazil
Background: Given the interconnectivity of Brazil with the rest of the world, Zika virus (ZIKV) infections have the potential to spread rapidly around the world via viremic travellers. The extent of spread depends on the travel volume and the endemicity in the exporting country. In the absence of re...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Taylor & Francis Group
2016-05-01
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| Series: | Global Health Action |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.globalhealthaction.net/index.php/gha/article/view/31669/pdf_276 |
| _version_ | 1830090408592408576 |
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| author | Eduardo Massad Ser-Han Tan Kamran Khan Annelies Wilder-Smith |
| author_facet | Eduardo Massad Ser-Han Tan Kamran Khan Annelies Wilder-Smith |
| author_sort | Eduardo Massad |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Background: Given the interconnectivity of Brazil with the rest of the world, Zika virus (ZIKV) infections have the potential to spread rapidly around the world via viremic travellers. The extent of spread depends on the travel volume and the endemicity in the exporting country. In the absence of reliable surveillance data, we did mathematical modelling to estimate the number of importations of ZIKV from Brazil into Europe. Design: We applied a previously developed mathematical model on importations of dengue to estimate the number of ZIKV importations into Europe, based on the travel volume, the probability of being infected at the time of travel, the population size of Brazil, and the estimated incidence of ZIKV infections. Results: Our model estimated between 508 and 1,778 imported infections into Europe in 2016, of which we would expect between 116 and 355 symptomatic Zika infections; with the highest number of importations being into France, Portugal and Italy. Conclusions: Our model identified high-risk countries in Europe. Such data can assist policymakers and public health professionals in estimating the extent of importations in order to prepare for the scale up of laboratory diagnostic assays and estimate the occurrence of Guillain–Barré Syndrome, potential sexual transmission, and infants with congenital ZIKV syndrome. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-16T17:03:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bd90ea69fc934f2c94605dc8833793e9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1654-9880 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-16T17:03:00Z |
| publishDate | 2016-05-01 |
| publisher | Taylor & Francis Group |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Global Health Action |
| spelling | doaj.art-bd90ea69fc934f2c94605dc8833793e92022-12-21T22:23:41ZengTaylor & Francis GroupGlobal Health Action1654-98802016-05-01901710.3402/gha.v9.3166931669Estimated Zika virus importations to Europe by travellers from BrazilEduardo Massad0Ser-Han Tan1Kamran Khan2Annelies Wilder-Smith3 Department of Medicine, University of Sao Paolo, Sao Paolo, Brazil School of Computer Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, Singapore Li Ka Shing Knowledge Institute, St Michael's Hospital, Toronto, Canada Institute of Public Health, University of Heidelberg, GermanyBackground: Given the interconnectivity of Brazil with the rest of the world, Zika virus (ZIKV) infections have the potential to spread rapidly around the world via viremic travellers. The extent of spread depends on the travel volume and the endemicity in the exporting country. In the absence of reliable surveillance data, we did mathematical modelling to estimate the number of importations of ZIKV from Brazil into Europe. Design: We applied a previously developed mathematical model on importations of dengue to estimate the number of ZIKV importations into Europe, based on the travel volume, the probability of being infected at the time of travel, the population size of Brazil, and the estimated incidence of ZIKV infections. Results: Our model estimated between 508 and 1,778 imported infections into Europe in 2016, of which we would expect between 116 and 355 symptomatic Zika infections; with the highest number of importations being into France, Portugal and Italy. Conclusions: Our model identified high-risk countries in Europe. Such data can assist policymakers and public health professionals in estimating the extent of importations in order to prepare for the scale up of laboratory diagnostic assays and estimate the occurrence of Guillain–Barré Syndrome, potential sexual transmission, and infants with congenital ZIKV syndrome.http://www.globalhealthaction.net/index.php/gha/article/view/31669/pdf_276Zika virustravelimportationsBrazilEurope |
| spellingShingle | Eduardo Massad Ser-Han Tan Kamran Khan Annelies Wilder-Smith Estimated Zika virus importations to Europe by travellers from Brazil Global Health Action Zika virus travel importations Brazil Europe |
| title | Estimated Zika virus importations to Europe by travellers from Brazil |
| title_full | Estimated Zika virus importations to Europe by travellers from Brazil |
| title_fullStr | Estimated Zika virus importations to Europe by travellers from Brazil |
| title_full_unstemmed | Estimated Zika virus importations to Europe by travellers from Brazil |
| title_short | Estimated Zika virus importations to Europe by travellers from Brazil |
| title_sort | estimated zika virus importations to europe by travellers from brazil |
| topic | Zika virus travel importations Brazil Europe |
| url | http://www.globalhealthaction.net/index.php/gha/article/view/31669/pdf_276 |
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