PALEO-PGEM v1.0: a statistical emulator of Pliocene–Pleistocene climate
<p>We describe the development of the “Paleoclimate PLASIM-GENIE (Planet Simulator–Grid-Enabled Integrated Earth system model) emulator” PALEO-PGEM and its application to derive a downscaled high-resolution spatio-temporal description of the climate of the last <span class="inline-form...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Copernicus Publications
2019-12-01
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| Series: | Geoscientific Model Development |
| Online Access: | https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/5137/2019/gmd-12-5137-2019.pdf |
| _version_ | 1818506832232054784 |
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| author | P. B. Holden N. R. Edwards T. F. Rangel E. B. Pereira G. T. Tran R. D. Wilkinson |
| author_facet | P. B. Holden N. R. Edwards T. F. Rangel E. B. Pereira G. T. Tran R. D. Wilkinson |
| author_sort | P. B. Holden |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>We describe the development of the “Paleoclimate PLASIM-GENIE (Planet Simulator–Grid-Enabled Integrated Earth system model) emulator” PALEO-PGEM and its application to derive a downscaled
high-resolution spatio-temporal description of the climate of the last <span class="inline-formula">5×10<sup>6</sup></span> years. The <span class="inline-formula">5×10<sup>6</sup></span>-year time frame is interesting for a range of
paleo-environmental questions, not least because it encompasses the
evolution of humans. However, the choice of time frame was primarily
pragmatic; tectonic changes can be neglected to first order, so that it is
reasonable to consider climate forcing restricted to the Earth's orbital
configuration, ice-sheet state, and the concentration of atmosphere <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span>.
The approach uses the Gaussian process emulation of the singular value
decomposition of ensembles of the intermediate-complexity atmosphere–ocean
GCM (general circulation model) PLASIM-GENIE. Spatial fields of bioclimatic variables of surface air
temperature (warmest and coolest seasons) and precipitation (wettest and
driest seasons) are emulated at 1000-year intervals, driven by time series
of scalar boundary-condition forcing (<span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span>, orbit, and ice volume) and
assuming the climate is in quasi-equilibrium. Paleoclimate anomalies at
climate model resolution are interpolated onto the observed modern
climatology to produce a high-resolution spatio-temporal paleoclimate
reconstruction of the Pliocene–Pleistocene.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-10T22:10:02Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bd9ae812f1194b2d9243bd3d5e98a759 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1991-959X 1991-9603 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-10T22:10:02Z |
| publishDate | 2019-12-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geoscientific Model Development |
| spelling | doaj.art-bd9ae812f1194b2d9243bd3d5e98a7592022-12-22T01:31:38ZengCopernicus PublicationsGeoscientific Model Development1991-959X1991-96032019-12-01125137515510.5194/gmd-12-5137-2019PALEO-PGEM v1.0: a statistical emulator of Pliocene–Pleistocene climateP. B. Holden0N. R. Edwards1T. F. Rangel2E. B. Pereira3G. T. Tran4R. D. Wilkinson5Environment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA, UKEnvironment, Earth and Ecosystem Sciences, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes, MK7 6AA, UKDepartmento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiaìs, CP 131, 74.001-970 Goiânia, Goiaìs, BrazilDepartmento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiaìs, CP 131, 74.001-970 Goiânia, Goiaìs, BrazilGEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, GermanySchool of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK<p>We describe the development of the “Paleoclimate PLASIM-GENIE (Planet Simulator–Grid-Enabled Integrated Earth system model) emulator” PALEO-PGEM and its application to derive a downscaled high-resolution spatio-temporal description of the climate of the last <span class="inline-formula">5×10<sup>6</sup></span> years. The <span class="inline-formula">5×10<sup>6</sup></span>-year time frame is interesting for a range of paleo-environmental questions, not least because it encompasses the evolution of humans. However, the choice of time frame was primarily pragmatic; tectonic changes can be neglected to first order, so that it is reasonable to consider climate forcing restricted to the Earth's orbital configuration, ice-sheet state, and the concentration of atmosphere <span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span>. The approach uses the Gaussian process emulation of the singular value decomposition of ensembles of the intermediate-complexity atmosphere–ocean GCM (general circulation model) PLASIM-GENIE. Spatial fields of bioclimatic variables of surface air temperature (warmest and coolest seasons) and precipitation (wettest and driest seasons) are emulated at 1000-year intervals, driven by time series of scalar boundary-condition forcing (<span class="inline-formula">CO<sub>2</sub></span>, orbit, and ice volume) and assuming the climate is in quasi-equilibrium. Paleoclimate anomalies at climate model resolution are interpolated onto the observed modern climatology to produce a high-resolution spatio-temporal paleoclimate reconstruction of the Pliocene–Pleistocene.</p>https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/5137/2019/gmd-12-5137-2019.pdf |
| spellingShingle | P. B. Holden N. R. Edwards T. F. Rangel E. B. Pereira G. T. Tran R. D. Wilkinson PALEO-PGEM v1.0: a statistical emulator of Pliocene–Pleistocene climate Geoscientific Model Development |
| title | PALEO-PGEM v1.0: a statistical emulator of Pliocene–Pleistocene climate |
| title_full | PALEO-PGEM v1.0: a statistical emulator of Pliocene–Pleistocene climate |
| title_fullStr | PALEO-PGEM v1.0: a statistical emulator of Pliocene–Pleistocene climate |
| title_full_unstemmed | PALEO-PGEM v1.0: a statistical emulator of Pliocene–Pleistocene climate |
| title_short | PALEO-PGEM v1.0: a statistical emulator of Pliocene–Pleistocene climate |
| title_sort | paleo pgem v1 0 a statistical emulator of pliocene pleistocene climate |
| url | https://www.geosci-model-dev.net/12/5137/2019/gmd-12-5137-2019.pdf |
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