Performance of GEM-LAM dichotomous forecast for selected weather phenomena
In this study the performance of GEM-LAM numerical weather forecast focused on phenomena relevant to planning on-farm activities (i.e. frost and precipitation), is presented. Values from forecast were compared with observations gathered at 15 meteorological stations from Poland, for 1-year period. B...
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Warsaw University of Life Sciences
2016-12-01
|
| Series: | Przegląd Naukowy Inżynieria i Kształtowanie Środowiska |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: |
http://iks.pn.sggw.pl/PN74/A10/art10.pdf
|
| _version_ | 1798018550026207232 |
|---|---|
| author | Małgorzata Zdunek Maria Kłeczek |
| author_facet | Małgorzata Zdunek Maria Kłeczek |
| author_sort | Małgorzata Zdunek |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In this study the performance of GEM-LAM numerical weather forecast focused on phenomena relevant to planning on-farm activities (i.e. frost and precipitation), is presented. Values from forecast were compared with observations gathered at 15 meteorological stations from Poland, for 1-year period. Based on data collected in contingency table, six verification scores were calculated. The results show that considerable bias exists – the model forecasts frost occurrence too rarely while precipitation events too frequently. However nearly half of frost cases and 2/3 of precipitation incidents were correctly predicted. As for success ratio SR score the frost forecast was more frequently correct (75% or 64%, depending on frost type) than forecast of precipitation (47%). The skill of negative forecast is high, especially for precipitation, where less than 5% of forecasts were erroneous. Analysis of verification scores calculated separately for each station shows, that regarding the forecast of frost, substantial differences in performance between particular locations exist. The worst results were obtained for stations located near the seaside which indicates that in the analyzed model the impact of water reservoir on frost formation is not correctly taken into account (at horizontal grid resolution of 5 km). |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T16:26:06Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bd9f0d314d6c4c7da919d1099ffbfbea |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1732-9353 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T16:26:06Z |
| publishDate | 2016-12-01 |
| publisher | Warsaw University of Life Sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Przegląd Naukowy Inżynieria i Kształtowanie Środowiska |
| spelling | doaj.art-bd9f0d314d6c4c7da919d1099ffbfbea2022-12-22T04:14:11ZengWarsaw University of Life SciencesPrzegląd Naukowy Inżynieria i Kształtowanie Środowiska1732-93532016-12-01254483496Performance of GEM-LAM dichotomous forecast for selected weather phenomenaMałgorzata Zdunek0Maria Kłeczek1 Katedra Ochrony i Kształtowania Środowiska, Politechnika Warszawska Katedra Ochrony i Kształtowania Środowiska, Politechnika Warszawska In this study the performance of GEM-LAM numerical weather forecast focused on phenomena relevant to planning on-farm activities (i.e. frost and precipitation), is presented. Values from forecast were compared with observations gathered at 15 meteorological stations from Poland, for 1-year period. Based on data collected in contingency table, six verification scores were calculated. The results show that considerable bias exists – the model forecasts frost occurrence too rarely while precipitation events too frequently. However nearly half of frost cases and 2/3 of precipitation incidents were correctly predicted. As for success ratio SR score the frost forecast was more frequently correct (75% or 64%, depending on frost type) than forecast of precipitation (47%). The skill of negative forecast is high, especially for precipitation, where less than 5% of forecasts were erroneous. Analysis of verification scores calculated separately for each station shows, that regarding the forecast of frost, substantial differences in performance between particular locations exist. The worst results were obtained for stations located near the seaside which indicates that in the analyzed model the impact of water reservoir on frost formation is not correctly taken into account (at horizontal grid resolution of 5 km). http://iks.pn.sggw.pl/PN74/A10/art10.pdf dichotomous forecastfrostprecipitationverification scoresGEM meteorological model |
| spellingShingle | Małgorzata Zdunek Maria Kłeczek Performance of GEM-LAM dichotomous forecast for selected weather phenomena Przegląd Naukowy Inżynieria i Kształtowanie Środowiska dichotomous forecast frost precipitation verification scores GEM meteorological model |
| title | Performance of GEM-LAM dichotomous forecast for selected weather phenomena |
| title_full | Performance of GEM-LAM dichotomous forecast for selected weather phenomena |
| title_fullStr | Performance of GEM-LAM dichotomous forecast for selected weather phenomena |
| title_full_unstemmed | Performance of GEM-LAM dichotomous forecast for selected weather phenomena |
| title_short | Performance of GEM-LAM dichotomous forecast for selected weather phenomena |
| title_sort | performance of gem lam dichotomous forecast for selected weather phenomena |
| topic | dichotomous forecast frost precipitation verification scores GEM meteorological model |
| url |
http://iks.pn.sggw.pl/PN74/A10/art10.pdf
|
| work_keys_str_mv | AT małgorzatazdunek performanceofgemlamdichotomousforecastforselectedweatherphenomena AT mariakłeczek performanceofgemlamdichotomousforecastforselectedweatherphenomena |