Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Data-Scarce Region Using a Scenario-Based Modeling Approach: A Case Study in Southeastern USA
Climate change may impact agricultural greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and yields under higher temperatures, higher atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations, and variable precipitations. This calls for adaptation strategies to optimize agricultural productions with minimal GHGs. This st...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2021-06-01
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| Series: | Agronomy |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/11/7/1323 |
| _version_ | 1797528419154526208 |
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| author | Mahnaz Afroz Runwei Li Gang Chen Aavudai Anandhi |
| author_facet | Mahnaz Afroz Runwei Li Gang Chen Aavudai Anandhi |
| author_sort | Mahnaz Afroz |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change may impact agricultural greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and yields under higher temperatures, higher atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations, and variable precipitations. This calls for adaptation strategies to optimize agricultural productions with minimal GHGs. This study aimed to identify these optimum agricultural managements in response to current and projected climatic scenarios for the Choctawhatchee Basin in Southeastern USA, an experimentally unexplored data-scarce region lacking validation data. This scenario-based modeling study analyzed a total of 1344 scenarios consisting of four major crops, eight managements (varying tillage, manuring, and residue), and forty climatic combinations under current as wells as two representative concentration pathways with process-based Denitrification and Decomposition (DNDC) model. The results indicated that the region’s GHGs and yields were most affected by higher temperatures (≥+3 °C) and extreme precipitation changes (≥±40%), while high atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations exerted positive fertilization effects. The manure-related and higher residue incorporation scenarios were found to be better options in varying climates with minimal present global warming potentials (GWP) of 0.23 k to −29.1 k MT equivalent CO<sub>2</sub>. As such, the study presented climate change impacts and potential mitigation options in the study region while presenting a framework to design GHG mitigation in similar data-scarce regions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T09:58:04Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bde52a263c284d449ef04b7c65e583ea |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4395 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T09:58:04Z |
| publishDate | 2021-06-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Agronomy |
| spelling | doaj.art-bde52a263c284d449ef04b7c65e583ea2023-11-22T02:13:00ZengMDPI AGAgronomy2073-43952021-06-01117132310.3390/agronomy11071323Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Data-Scarce Region Using a Scenario-Based Modeling Approach: A Case Study in Southeastern USAMahnaz Afroz0Runwei Li1Gang Chen2Aavudai Anandhi3Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, Tallahassee, FL 32310, USADepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, Tallahassee, FL 32310, USADepartment of Civil and Environmental Engineering, FAMU-FSU College of Engineering, Tallahassee, FL 32310, USABiological System Engineering Program, Florida A&M University, Tallahassee, FL 32306, USAClimate change may impact agricultural greenhouse gas emissions (GHGs) and yields under higher temperatures, higher atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations, and variable precipitations. This calls for adaptation strategies to optimize agricultural productions with minimal GHGs. This study aimed to identify these optimum agricultural managements in response to current and projected climatic scenarios for the Choctawhatchee Basin in Southeastern USA, an experimentally unexplored data-scarce region lacking validation data. This scenario-based modeling study analyzed a total of 1344 scenarios consisting of four major crops, eight managements (varying tillage, manuring, and residue), and forty climatic combinations under current as wells as two representative concentration pathways with process-based Denitrification and Decomposition (DNDC) model. The results indicated that the region’s GHGs and yields were most affected by higher temperatures (≥+3 °C) and extreme precipitation changes (≥±40%), while high atmospheric CO<sub>2</sub> concentrations exerted positive fertilization effects. The manure-related and higher residue incorporation scenarios were found to be better options in varying climates with minimal present global warming potentials (GWP) of 0.23 k to −29.1 k MT equivalent CO<sub>2</sub>. As such, the study presented climate change impacts and potential mitigation options in the study region while presenting a framework to design GHG mitigation in similar data-scarce regions.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/11/7/1323greenhouse gasclimate changealternative managementsscenario development |
| spellingShingle | Mahnaz Afroz Runwei Li Gang Chen Aavudai Anandhi Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Data-Scarce Region Using a Scenario-Based Modeling Approach: A Case Study in Southeastern USA Agronomy greenhouse gas climate change alternative managements scenario development |
| title | Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Data-Scarce Region Using a Scenario-Based Modeling Approach: A Case Study in Southeastern USA |
| title_full | Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Data-Scarce Region Using a Scenario-Based Modeling Approach: A Case Study in Southeastern USA |
| title_fullStr | Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Data-Scarce Region Using a Scenario-Based Modeling Approach: A Case Study in Southeastern USA |
| title_full_unstemmed | Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Data-Scarce Region Using a Scenario-Based Modeling Approach: A Case Study in Southeastern USA |
| title_short | Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Data-Scarce Region Using a Scenario-Based Modeling Approach: A Case Study in Southeastern USA |
| title_sort | agricultural greenhouse gas emissions in a data scarce region using a scenario based modeling approach a case study in southeastern usa |
| topic | greenhouse gas climate change alternative managements scenario development |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/11/7/1323 |
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