Changes of tropical cyclone activity in a warming world are sensitive to sea surface temperature environment
While there is considerable agreement in the scientific community about the intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) in a warming world, that consensus does not exist for TC frequency. In order to shed new light on this uncertainty, we classified the global oceans into three pools based on SST per...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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IOP Publishing
2019-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Research Letters |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5ada |
| _version_ | 1797747616835960832 |
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| author | Banglin Zhang Renhe Zhang Rachel T Pinker Yerong Feng Changchun Nie Yuping Guan |
| author_facet | Banglin Zhang Renhe Zhang Rachel T Pinker Yerong Feng Changchun Nie Yuping Guan |
| author_sort | Banglin Zhang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | While there is considerable agreement in the scientific community about the intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) in a warming world, that consensus does not exist for TC frequency. In order to shed new light on this uncertainty, we classified the global oceans into three pools based on SST percentiles: the (a) warm (≥90th percentiles), (a) moderate (65th–90th percentiles) and (c) cool (<65th percentiles) pools, and found that TC frequency increases significantly over the cool SST pool but decreases in the warm and moderate SST pools. The differences in TC frequency change is large among the three pools, contrasting to the small trend differences of TC intensity. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:54:02Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-be075d8490954782840ef63a54d903b3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1748-9326 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T15:54:02Z |
| publishDate | 2019-01-01 |
| publisher | IOP Publishing |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Research Letters |
| spelling | doaj.art-be075d8490954782840ef63a54d903b32023-08-09T15:01:42ZengIOP PublishingEnvironmental Research Letters1748-93262019-01-01141212405210.1088/1748-9326/ab5adaChanges of tropical cyclone activity in a warming world are sensitive to sea surface temperature environmentBanglin Zhang0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7836-8102Renhe Zhang1Rachel T Pinker2Yerong Feng3Changchun Nie4Yuping Guan5Guangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, CMA, Guangzhou 510641, People’s Republic of China; College of Atmospheric Science, Lanzhou University , Lanzhou 730000, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, Fudan University , Shanghai 200433, People’s Republic of ChinaDepartment of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland , College Park, MD 20742, United States of AmericaGuangzhou Institute of Tropical and Marine Meteorology/Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Regional Numerical Weather Prediction, CMA, Guangzhou 510641, People’s Republic of ChinaShantou Meteorological Service, Shantou 515000, People’s Republic of ChinaSouth China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou, People’s Republic of ChinaWhile there is considerable agreement in the scientific community about the intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) in a warming world, that consensus does not exist for TC frequency. In order to shed new light on this uncertainty, we classified the global oceans into three pools based on SST percentiles: the (a) warm (≥90th percentiles), (a) moderate (65th–90th percentiles) and (c) cool (<65th percentiles) pools, and found that TC frequency increases significantly over the cool SST pool but decreases in the warm and moderate SST pools. The differences in TC frequency change is large among the three pools, contrasting to the small trend differences of TC intensity.https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5adatropical cyclone activityTC frequencyglobal warmingSST percentilesensitivity |
| spellingShingle | Banglin Zhang Renhe Zhang Rachel T Pinker Yerong Feng Changchun Nie Yuping Guan Changes of tropical cyclone activity in a warming world are sensitive to sea surface temperature environment Environmental Research Letters tropical cyclone activity TC frequency global warming SST percentile sensitivity |
| title | Changes of tropical cyclone activity in a warming world are sensitive to sea surface temperature environment |
| title_full | Changes of tropical cyclone activity in a warming world are sensitive to sea surface temperature environment |
| title_fullStr | Changes of tropical cyclone activity in a warming world are sensitive to sea surface temperature environment |
| title_full_unstemmed | Changes of tropical cyclone activity in a warming world are sensitive to sea surface temperature environment |
| title_short | Changes of tropical cyclone activity in a warming world are sensitive to sea surface temperature environment |
| title_sort | changes of tropical cyclone activity in a warming world are sensitive to sea surface temperature environment |
| topic | tropical cyclone activity TC frequency global warming SST percentile sensitivity |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab5ada |
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