Heterogeneous risk attitudes and waves of infection.
Many countries have experienced multiple waves of infection during the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose a novel but parsimonious extension of the SIR model, a CSIR model, that can endogenously generate waves. In the model, cautious individuals take appropriate prevention measures against the virus and...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2024-01-01
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| Series: | PLoS ONE |
| Online Access: | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0299813&type=printable |
| _version_ | 1797209645669941248 |
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| author | Daisuke Fujii Taisuke Nakata Takeshi Ojima |
| author_facet | Daisuke Fujii Taisuke Nakata Takeshi Ojima |
| author_sort | Daisuke Fujii |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Many countries have experienced multiple waves of infection during the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose a novel but parsimonious extension of the SIR model, a CSIR model, that can endogenously generate waves. In the model, cautious individuals take appropriate prevention measures against the virus and are not exposed to infection risk. Incautious individuals do not take any measures and are susceptible to the risk of infection. Depending on the size of incautious and susceptible population, some cautious people lower their guard and become incautious-thus susceptible to the virus. When the virus spreads sufficiently, the population reaches "temporary" herd immunity and infection subsides thereafter. Yet, the inflow from the cautious to the susceptible eventually expands the susceptible population and leads to the next wave. We also show that the CSIR model is isomorphic to the SIR model with time-varying parameters. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-24T09:58:00Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-be353113682f4841a7ea3a58a194a6a8 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1932-6203 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-24T09:58:00Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
| record_format | Article |
| series | PLoS ONE |
| spelling | doaj.art-be353113682f4841a7ea3a58a194a6a82024-04-14T05:31:36ZengPublic Library of Science (PLoS)PLoS ONE1932-62032024-01-01194e029981310.1371/journal.pone.0299813Heterogeneous risk attitudes and waves of infection.Daisuke FujiiTaisuke NakataTakeshi OjimaMany countries have experienced multiple waves of infection during the COVID-19 pandemic. We propose a novel but parsimonious extension of the SIR model, a CSIR model, that can endogenously generate waves. In the model, cautious individuals take appropriate prevention measures against the virus and are not exposed to infection risk. Incautious individuals do not take any measures and are susceptible to the risk of infection. Depending on the size of incautious and susceptible population, some cautious people lower their guard and become incautious-thus susceptible to the virus. When the virus spreads sufficiently, the population reaches "temporary" herd immunity and infection subsides thereafter. Yet, the inflow from the cautious to the susceptible eventually expands the susceptible population and leads to the next wave. We also show that the CSIR model is isomorphic to the SIR model with time-varying parameters.https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0299813&type=printable |
| spellingShingle | Daisuke Fujii Taisuke Nakata Takeshi Ojima Heterogeneous risk attitudes and waves of infection. PLoS ONE |
| title | Heterogeneous risk attitudes and waves of infection. |
| title_full | Heterogeneous risk attitudes and waves of infection. |
| title_fullStr | Heterogeneous risk attitudes and waves of infection. |
| title_full_unstemmed | Heterogeneous risk attitudes and waves of infection. |
| title_short | Heterogeneous risk attitudes and waves of infection. |
| title_sort | heterogeneous risk attitudes and waves of infection |
| url | https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0299813&type=printable |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT daisukefujii heterogeneousriskattitudesandwavesofinfection AT taisukenakata heterogeneousriskattitudesandwavesofinfection AT takeshiojima heterogeneousriskattitudesandwavesofinfection |