Effects of rainfall, temperature and topography on malaria incidence in elimination targeted district of Ethiopia
Abstract Background Climate and environmental factors could be one of the primary factors that drive malaria transmission and it remains to challenge the malaria elimination efforts. Hence, this study was aimed to evaluate the effects of meteorological factors and topography on the incidence of mala...
| Main Authors: | , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2021-02-01
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| Series: | Malaria Journal |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-021-03641-1 |
| _version_ | 1818414359421911040 |
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| author | Desalegn Dabaro Zewdie Birhanu Abiyot Negash Dawit Hawaria Delenasaw Yewhalaw |
| author_facet | Desalegn Dabaro Zewdie Birhanu Abiyot Negash Dawit Hawaria Delenasaw Yewhalaw |
| author_sort | Desalegn Dabaro |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background Climate and environmental factors could be one of the primary factors that drive malaria transmission and it remains to challenge the malaria elimination efforts. Hence, this study was aimed to evaluate the effects of meteorological factors and topography on the incidence of malaria in the Boricha district in Sidama regional state of Ethiopia. Methods Malaria morbidity data recorded from 2010 to 2017 were obtained from all public health facilities of Boricha District in the Sidama regional state of Ethiopia. The monthly malaria cases, rainfall, and temperature (minimum, maximum, and average) were used to fit the ARIMA model to compute the malaria transmission dynamics and also to forecast future incidence. The effects of the meteorological variables and altitude were assessed with a negative binomial regression model using R version 4.0.0. Cross-correlation analysis was employed to compute the delayed effects of meteorological variables on malaria incidence. Results Temperature, rainfall, and elevation were the major determinants of malaria incidence in the study area. A regression model of previous monthly rainfall at lag 0 and Lag 2, monthly mean maximum temperature at lag 2 and Lag 3, and monthly mean minimum temperature at lag 3 were found as the best prediction model for monthly malaria incidence. Malaria cases at 1801–1900 m above sea level were 1.48 times more likely to occur than elevation ≥ 2000 m. Conclusions Meteorological factors and altitude were the major drivers of malaria incidence in the study area. Thus, evidence-based interventions tailored to each determinant are required to achieve the malaria elimination target of the country. |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-14T11:17:51Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-be462c13f70646c693c2d0616a70bd02 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1475-2875 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-14T11:17:51Z |
| publishDate | 2021-02-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Malaria Journal |
| spelling | doaj.art-be462c13f70646c693c2d0616a70bd022022-12-21T23:03:56ZengBMCMalaria Journal1475-28752021-02-0120111010.1186/s12936-021-03641-1Effects of rainfall, temperature and topography on malaria incidence in elimination targeted district of EthiopiaDesalegn Dabaro0Zewdie Birhanu1Abiyot Negash2Dawit Hawaria3Delenasaw Yewhalaw4Yirgalem Hospital Medical CollegeDepartment of Health, Behaviour and Society, Faculty of Public Health, Jimma UniversityDepartment of Statistics, College of Natural Science, Jimma UniversityYirgalem Hospital Medical CollegeDepartment of Medical Laboratory Sciences and Pathology, College of Health Sciences, Jimma UniversityAbstract Background Climate and environmental factors could be one of the primary factors that drive malaria transmission and it remains to challenge the malaria elimination efforts. Hence, this study was aimed to evaluate the effects of meteorological factors and topography on the incidence of malaria in the Boricha district in Sidama regional state of Ethiopia. Methods Malaria morbidity data recorded from 2010 to 2017 were obtained from all public health facilities of Boricha District in the Sidama regional state of Ethiopia. The monthly malaria cases, rainfall, and temperature (minimum, maximum, and average) were used to fit the ARIMA model to compute the malaria transmission dynamics and also to forecast future incidence. The effects of the meteorological variables and altitude were assessed with a negative binomial regression model using R version 4.0.0. Cross-correlation analysis was employed to compute the delayed effects of meteorological variables on malaria incidence. Results Temperature, rainfall, and elevation were the major determinants of malaria incidence in the study area. A regression model of previous monthly rainfall at lag 0 and Lag 2, monthly mean maximum temperature at lag 2 and Lag 3, and monthly mean minimum temperature at lag 3 were found as the best prediction model for monthly malaria incidence. Malaria cases at 1801–1900 m above sea level were 1.48 times more likely to occur than elevation ≥ 2000 m. Conclusions Meteorological factors and altitude were the major drivers of malaria incidence in the study area. Thus, evidence-based interventions tailored to each determinant are required to achieve the malaria elimination target of the country.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-021-03641-1MalariaTemperatureRainfallAltitudeBorichaEthiopia |
| spellingShingle | Desalegn Dabaro Zewdie Birhanu Abiyot Negash Dawit Hawaria Delenasaw Yewhalaw Effects of rainfall, temperature and topography on malaria incidence in elimination targeted district of Ethiopia Malaria Journal Malaria Temperature Rainfall Altitude Boricha Ethiopia |
| title | Effects of rainfall, temperature and topography on malaria incidence in elimination targeted district of Ethiopia |
| title_full | Effects of rainfall, temperature and topography on malaria incidence in elimination targeted district of Ethiopia |
| title_fullStr | Effects of rainfall, temperature and topography on malaria incidence in elimination targeted district of Ethiopia |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effects of rainfall, temperature and topography on malaria incidence in elimination targeted district of Ethiopia |
| title_short | Effects of rainfall, temperature and topography on malaria incidence in elimination targeted district of Ethiopia |
| title_sort | effects of rainfall temperature and topography on malaria incidence in elimination targeted district of ethiopia |
| topic | Malaria Temperature Rainfall Altitude Boricha Ethiopia |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12936-021-03641-1 |
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