Quantitative assessment of fire and vegetation properties in simulations with fire-enabled vegetation models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project
<p>Global fire-vegetation models are widely used to assess impacts of environmental change on fire regimes and the carbon cycle and to infer relationships between climate, land use and fire. However, differences in model structure and parameterizations, in both the vegetation and fire componen...
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| Format: | Article |
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Copernicus Publications
2020-07-01
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| Series: | Geoscientific Model Development |
| Online Access: | https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/3299/2020/gmd-13-3299-2020.pdf |
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| author | S. Hantson S. Hantson D. I. Kelley A. Arneth S. P. Harrison S. Archibald D. Bachelet M. Forrest T. Hickler T. Hickler G. Lasslop F. Li S. Mangeon S. Mangeon J. R. Melton L. Nieradzik S. S. Rabin I. C. Prentice T. Sheehan S. Sitch L. Teckentrup L. Teckentrup A. Voulgarakis C. Yue |
| author_facet | S. Hantson S. Hantson D. I. Kelley A. Arneth S. P. Harrison S. Archibald D. Bachelet M. Forrest T. Hickler T. Hickler G. Lasslop F. Li S. Mangeon S. Mangeon J. R. Melton L. Nieradzik S. S. Rabin I. C. Prentice T. Sheehan S. Sitch L. Teckentrup L. Teckentrup A. Voulgarakis C. Yue |
| author_sort | S. Hantson |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | <p>Global fire-vegetation models are widely used to assess
impacts of environmental change on fire regimes and the carbon cycle and to
infer relationships between climate, land use and fire. However,
differences in model structure and parameterizations, in both the vegetation
and fire components of these models, could influence overall model
performance, and to date there has been limited evaluation of how well
different models represent various aspects of fire regimes. The Fire Model
Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) is coordinating the evaluation of
state-of-the-art global fire models, in order to improve projections of fire
characteristics and fire impacts on ecosystems and human societies in the
context of global environmental change. Here we perform a systematic
evaluation of historical simulations made by nine FireMIP models to quantify
their ability to reproduce a range of fire and vegetation benchmarks. The
FireMIP models simulate a wide range in global annual total burnt area
(39–536 Mha) and global annual fire carbon emission (0.91–4.75 Pg C yr<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−1</sup></span>) for modern conditions (2002–2012), but most of the range in burnt
area is within observational uncertainty (345–468 Mha). Benchmarking scores
indicate that seven out of nine FireMIP models are able to represent the
spatial pattern in burnt area. The models also reproduce the seasonality in
burnt area reasonably well but struggle to simulate fire season length and
are largely unable to represent interannual variations in burnt area.
However, models that represent cropland fires see improved simulation of
fire seasonality in the Northern Hemisphere. The three FireMIP models which
explicitly simulate individual fires are able to reproduce the spatial
pattern in number of fires, but fire sizes are too small in key regions, and
this results in an underestimation of burnt area. The correct representation
of spatial and seasonal patterns in vegetation appears to correlate with a
better representation of burnt area. The two older fire models included in
the FireMIP ensemble (LPJ–GUESS–GlobFIRM, MC2) clearly perform less well
globally than other models, but it is difficult to distinguish between the
remaining ensemble members; some of these models are better at representing
certain aspects of the fire regime; none clearly outperforms all other
models across the full range of variables assessed.</p> |
| first_indexed | 2024-12-12T05:09:02Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-be70f1cdf7634a1c987eb407ce5abf7b |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1991-959X 1991-9603 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-12-12T05:09:02Z |
| publishDate | 2020-07-01 |
| publisher | Copernicus Publications |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Geoscientific Model Development |
| spelling | doaj.art-be70f1cdf7634a1c987eb407ce5abf7b2022-12-22T00:37:01ZengCopernicus PublicationsGeoscientific Model Development1991-959X1991-96032020-07-01133299331810.5194/gmd-13-3299-2020Quantitative assessment of fire and vegetation properties in simulations with fire-enabled vegetation models from the Fire Model Intercomparison ProjectS. Hantson0S. Hantson1D. I. Kelley2A. Arneth3S. P. Harrison4S. Archibald5D. Bachelet6M. Forrest7T. Hickler8T. Hickler9G. Lasslop10F. Li11S. Mangeon12S. Mangeon13J. R. Melton14L. Nieradzik15S. S. Rabin16I. C. Prentice17T. Sheehan18S. Sitch19L. Teckentrup20L. Teckentrup21A. Voulgarakis22C. Yue23Atmospheric Environmental Research, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, GermanyGeospatial Data Solutions Center, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA 92697, USAUK Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Wallingford OX10 8BB, UKAtmospheric Environmental Research, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, GermanySchool of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, UKCentre for African Ecology, School of Animal, Plant and Environmental Sciences, University of the Witwatersrand, Private Bag X3, WITS, Johannesburg, 2050, South AfricaBiological and Ecological Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USASenckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Institute (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, GermanySenckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Institute (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, GermanyInstitute of Physical Geography, Goethe University, Altenhöferallee 1, 60438 Frankfurt am Main, GermanySenckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Institute (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, GermanyInternational Center for Climate and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, ChinaDepartment of Physics, Imperial College London, London, UKnow at: Data 61, CSIRO, Brisbane, AustraliaClimate Research Division, Environment and Climate Change Canada, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, CanadaDepartment of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund University, 22362 Lund, SwedenAtmospheric Environmental Research, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Garmisch-Partenkirchen, GermanyAXA Chair of Biosphere and Climate Impacts, Grand Challenges in Ecosystem and the Environment, Department of Life Sciences and Grantham Institute – Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, Silwood Park Campus, Buckhurst Road, Ascot SL5 7PY, UKBiological and Ecological Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USACollege of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Exeter, Exeter EX4 4RJ, UKARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW, AustraliaClimate Change Research Center, University of New South Wales, Sydney, NSW 2052, AustraliaDepartment of Physics, Imperial College London, London, UKLaboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette, France<p>Global fire-vegetation models are widely used to assess impacts of environmental change on fire regimes and the carbon cycle and to infer relationships between climate, land use and fire. However, differences in model structure and parameterizations, in both the vegetation and fire components of these models, could influence overall model performance, and to date there has been limited evaluation of how well different models represent various aspects of fire regimes. The Fire Model Intercomparison Project (FireMIP) is coordinating the evaluation of state-of-the-art global fire models, in order to improve projections of fire characteristics and fire impacts on ecosystems and human societies in the context of global environmental change. Here we perform a systematic evaluation of historical simulations made by nine FireMIP models to quantify their ability to reproduce a range of fire and vegetation benchmarks. The FireMIP models simulate a wide range in global annual total burnt area (39–536 Mha) and global annual fire carbon emission (0.91–4.75 Pg C yr<span class="inline-formula"><sup>−1</sup></span>) for modern conditions (2002–2012), but most of the range in burnt area is within observational uncertainty (345–468 Mha). Benchmarking scores indicate that seven out of nine FireMIP models are able to represent the spatial pattern in burnt area. The models also reproduce the seasonality in burnt area reasonably well but struggle to simulate fire season length and are largely unable to represent interannual variations in burnt area. However, models that represent cropland fires see improved simulation of fire seasonality in the Northern Hemisphere. The three FireMIP models which explicitly simulate individual fires are able to reproduce the spatial pattern in number of fires, but fire sizes are too small in key regions, and this results in an underestimation of burnt area. The correct representation of spatial and seasonal patterns in vegetation appears to correlate with a better representation of burnt area. The two older fire models included in the FireMIP ensemble (LPJ–GUESS–GlobFIRM, MC2) clearly perform less well globally than other models, but it is difficult to distinguish between the remaining ensemble members; some of these models are better at representing certain aspects of the fire regime; none clearly outperforms all other models across the full range of variables assessed.</p>https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/3299/2020/gmd-13-3299-2020.pdf |
| spellingShingle | S. Hantson S. Hantson D. I. Kelley A. Arneth S. P. Harrison S. Archibald D. Bachelet M. Forrest T. Hickler T. Hickler G. Lasslop F. Li S. Mangeon S. Mangeon J. R. Melton L. Nieradzik S. S. Rabin I. C. Prentice T. Sheehan S. Sitch L. Teckentrup L. Teckentrup A. Voulgarakis C. Yue Quantitative assessment of fire and vegetation properties in simulations with fire-enabled vegetation models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project Geoscientific Model Development |
| title | Quantitative assessment of fire and vegetation properties in simulations with fire-enabled vegetation models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project |
| title_full | Quantitative assessment of fire and vegetation properties in simulations with fire-enabled vegetation models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project |
| title_fullStr | Quantitative assessment of fire and vegetation properties in simulations with fire-enabled vegetation models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quantitative assessment of fire and vegetation properties in simulations with fire-enabled vegetation models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project |
| title_short | Quantitative assessment of fire and vegetation properties in simulations with fire-enabled vegetation models from the Fire Model Intercomparison Project |
| title_sort | quantitative assessment of fire and vegetation properties in simulations with fire enabled vegetation models from the fire model intercomparison project |
| url | https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/13/3299/2020/gmd-13-3299-2020.pdf |
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