Slightly more births at full moon
A popular belief holds that the number of births highly increases when the moon is full. To test this belief, we use a 50-year data set of 38.7 million births in France. The signal includes quasi-periodic and discrete components that need to be subtracted. This is done using a non-linear Gaussian le...
| Main Authors: | , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Académie des sciences
2021-09-01
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| Series: | Comptes Rendus. Mathématique |
| Online Access: | https://comptes-rendus.academie-sciences.fr/mathematique/articles/10.5802/crmath.223/ |
| _version_ | 1797651563309694976 |
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| author | Chambat, Frédéric Fougères, Anne-Laure Elyildirim, Alexandre |
| author_facet | Chambat, Frédéric Fougères, Anne-Laure Elyildirim, Alexandre |
| author_sort | Chambat, Frédéric |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | A popular belief holds that the number of births highly increases when the moon is full. To test this belief, we use a 50-year data set of 38.7 million births in France. The signal includes quasi-periodic and discrete components that need to be subtracted. This is done using a non-linear Gaussian least-squares method. It results in residuals with very good statistical properties. A likelihood ratio test is used to reject that the residual means for the 30 days of the lunar month all equal 0 (p-value = $5 \times 10^{-5}$): the residuals show very small but highly significant variations in the lunar month due to an increase of births at full moon and the day after. The reason for the very small increase of birth at full moon is not investigated but can be suspected to result from a self-fulfilling prophecy. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-11T16:16:35Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-be984da1517342baa2f18ad97d4c4742 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1778-3569 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-11T16:16:35Z |
| publishDate | 2021-09-01 |
| publisher | Académie des sciences |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Comptes Rendus. Mathématique |
| spelling | doaj.art-be984da1517342baa2f18ad97d4c47422023-10-24T14:19:25ZengAcadémie des sciencesComptes Rendus. Mathématique1778-35692021-09-01359780581110.5802/crmath.22310.5802/crmath.223Slightly more births at full moonChambat, Frédéric0https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8967-077XFougères, Anne-Laure1Elyildirim, Alexandre2Université de Lyon, ENSL, LGLTPE, CNRS, 15 parvis René Descartes, F-69007 Lyon FranceUniv Lyon, Université Claude Berndard Lyon 1, CNRS UMR 5208, Institut Camille Jordan, F-69622 Villeurbanne, FranceUniversité de Lyon, UCBL, Polytech, 15 Boulevard André Latarjet, F-69100 Villeurbanne, FranceA popular belief holds that the number of births highly increases when the moon is full. To test this belief, we use a 50-year data set of 38.7 million births in France. The signal includes quasi-periodic and discrete components that need to be subtracted. This is done using a non-linear Gaussian least-squares method. It results in residuals with very good statistical properties. A likelihood ratio test is used to reject that the residual means for the 30 days of the lunar month all equal 0 (p-value = $5 \times 10^{-5}$): the residuals show very small but highly significant variations in the lunar month due to an increase of births at full moon and the day after. The reason for the very small increase of birth at full moon is not investigated but can be suspected to result from a self-fulfilling prophecy.https://comptes-rendus.academie-sciences.fr/mathematique/articles/10.5802/crmath.223/ |
| spellingShingle | Chambat, Frédéric Fougères, Anne-Laure Elyildirim, Alexandre Slightly more births at full moon Comptes Rendus. Mathématique |
| title | Slightly more births at full moon |
| title_full | Slightly more births at full moon |
| title_fullStr | Slightly more births at full moon |
| title_full_unstemmed | Slightly more births at full moon |
| title_short | Slightly more births at full moon |
| title_sort | slightly more births at full moon |
| url | https://comptes-rendus.academie-sciences.fr/mathematique/articles/10.5802/crmath.223/ |
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