Climate change impacts on wind energy generation in Ireland
Abstract An ensemble of high‐resolution regional climate model simulation data is used to examine the impacts of climate change on offshore and onshore wind energy generation in Ireland. Two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) are analysed for the mid‐term (2041–20...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Wiley
2022-02-01
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| Series: | Wind Energy |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2673 |
| _version_ | 1828130916930682880 |
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| author | Eadaoin Doddy Clarke Conor Sweeney Frank McDermott Seánie Griffin João Monteiro Correia Paul Nolan Laura Cooke |
| author_facet | Eadaoin Doddy Clarke Conor Sweeney Frank McDermott Seánie Griffin João Monteiro Correia Paul Nolan Laura Cooke |
| author_sort | Eadaoin Doddy Clarke |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract An ensemble of high‐resolution regional climate model simulation data is used to examine the impacts of climate change on offshore and onshore wind energy generation in Ireland. Two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) are analysed for the mid‐term (2041–2060) and the long‐term (2081–2100) future. Wind energy is projected to decrease (≤2%) overall in future climate scenarios. Changes are evident by mid‐century and are more pronounced by late 21st century, particularly for RCP 8.5 offshore. Seasonally, wind energy is projected to decrease by less than 6% in summer and to increase slightly in winter (up to 1.1%). The distinct changes in different parts of the power curve, presented here for the first time, show a reversed pattern of duration at certain levels of the power curve. In summer, there is an increase of low‐power and a decrease of high‐power generation, whereas during winter, there is a projected increase in the time spent at high power. This could lead to diverse consequences for system operators depending on the season. The impacts of climate change on the duration and frequency of long periods (longer than 24 h) of low‐/high‐power wind energy events in Ireland are also presented. The frequency of low‐power events is projected to increase slightly, especially during summer. Onshore and offshore events are considered separately, demonstrating the complementarity of developing both onshore and offshore wind farms for future energy systems. Regional analysis highlights the benefit of developing a geographically dispersed wind farm network incorporating different local wind conditions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-11T16:39:41Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bedc9505df63408fba758cf432b0b945 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1095-4244 1099-1824 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-11T16:39:41Z |
| publishDate | 2022-02-01 |
| publisher | Wiley |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Wind Energy |
| spelling | doaj.art-bedc9505df63408fba758cf432b0b9452022-12-22T04:13:42ZengWileyWind Energy1095-42441099-18242022-02-0125230031210.1002/we.2673Climate change impacts on wind energy generation in IrelandEadaoin Doddy Clarke0Conor Sweeney1Frank McDermott2Seánie Griffin3João Monteiro Correia4Paul Nolan5Laura Cooke6UCD Energy Institute University College Dublin Dublin IrelandUCD Energy Institute University College Dublin Dublin IrelandUCD Energy Institute University College Dublin Dublin IrelandUCD Energy Institute University College Dublin Dublin IrelandUCD Energy Institute University College Dublin Dublin IrelandIrish Centre for High‐End Computing (ICHEC) Dublin IrelandTU Dublin Dublin IrelandAbstract An ensemble of high‐resolution regional climate model simulation data is used to examine the impacts of climate change on offshore and onshore wind energy generation in Ireland. Two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5) are analysed for the mid‐term (2041–2060) and the long‐term (2081–2100) future. Wind energy is projected to decrease (≤2%) overall in future climate scenarios. Changes are evident by mid‐century and are more pronounced by late 21st century, particularly for RCP 8.5 offshore. Seasonally, wind energy is projected to decrease by less than 6% in summer and to increase slightly in winter (up to 1.1%). The distinct changes in different parts of the power curve, presented here for the first time, show a reversed pattern of duration at certain levels of the power curve. In summer, there is an increase of low‐power and a decrease of high‐power generation, whereas during winter, there is a projected increase in the time spent at high power. This could lead to diverse consequences for system operators depending on the season. The impacts of climate change on the duration and frequency of long periods (longer than 24 h) of low‐/high‐power wind energy events in Ireland are also presented. The frequency of low‐power events is projected to increase slightly, especially during summer. Onshore and offshore events are considered separately, demonstrating the complementarity of developing both onshore and offshore wind farms for future energy systems. Regional analysis highlights the benefit of developing a geographically dispersed wind farm network incorporating different local wind conditions.https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2673climate changehigh‐power eventsIrelandlow‐power eventswind energy |
| spellingShingle | Eadaoin Doddy Clarke Conor Sweeney Frank McDermott Seánie Griffin João Monteiro Correia Paul Nolan Laura Cooke Climate change impacts on wind energy generation in Ireland Wind Energy climate change high‐power events Ireland low‐power events wind energy |
| title | Climate change impacts on wind energy generation in Ireland |
| title_full | Climate change impacts on wind energy generation in Ireland |
| title_fullStr | Climate change impacts on wind energy generation in Ireland |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change impacts on wind energy generation in Ireland |
| title_short | Climate change impacts on wind energy generation in Ireland |
| title_sort | climate change impacts on wind energy generation in ireland |
| topic | climate change high‐power events Ireland low‐power events wind energy |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1002/we.2673 |
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