Predicting norovirus and rotavirus resurgence in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic: a mathematical modelling study
Abstract Background To reduce the burden from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, federal and state local governments implemented restrictions such as limitations on gatherings, restaurant dining, and travel, and recommended non-pharmaceutical interventions including physical distancing, mas...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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BMC
2023-04-01
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| Series: | BMC Infectious Diseases |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-023-08224-w |
| _version_ | 1797841172259930112 |
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| author | Brooke L. Lappe Mary E. Wikswo Anita K. Kambhampati Sara A. Mirza Jacqueline E. Tate Alicia N. M. Kraay Ben A. Lopman |
| author_facet | Brooke L. Lappe Mary E. Wikswo Anita K. Kambhampati Sara A. Mirza Jacqueline E. Tate Alicia N. M. Kraay Ben A. Lopman |
| author_sort | Brooke L. Lappe |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Background To reduce the burden from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, federal and state local governments implemented restrictions such as limitations on gatherings, restaurant dining, and travel, and recommended non-pharmaceutical interventions including physical distancing, mask-wearing, surface disinfection, and increased hand hygiene. Resulting behavioral changes impacted other infectious diseases including enteropathogens such as norovirus and rotavirus, which had fairly regular seasonal patterns prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The study objective was to project future incidence of norovirus and rotavirus gastroenteritis as contacts resumed and other NPIs are relaxed. Methods We fitted compartmental mathematical models to pre-pandemic U.S. surveillance data (2012–2019) for norovirus and rotavirus using maximum likelihood estimation. Then, we projected incidence for 2022–2030 under scenarios where the number of contacts a person has per day varies from70%, 80%, 90%, and full resumption (100%) of pre-pandemic levels. Results We found that the population susceptibility to both viruses increased between March 2020 and November 2021. The 70–90% contact resumption scenarios led to lower incidence than observed pre-pandemic for both viruses. However, we found a greater than two-fold increase in community incidence relative to the pre-pandemic period under the 100% contact scenarios for both viruses. With rotavirus, for which population immunity is driven partially by vaccination, patterns settled into a new steady state quickly in 2022 under the 70–90% scenarios. For norovirus, for which immunity is relatively short-lasting and only acquired through infection, surged under the 100% contact scenario projection. Conclusions These results, which quantify the consequences of population susceptibility build-up, can help public health agencies prepare for potential resurgence of enteric viruses. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-09T16:26:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bf33e7408f8f43b8b93809e6893a81f1 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1471-2334 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-09T16:26:46Z |
| publishDate | 2023-04-01 |
| publisher | BMC |
| record_format | Article |
| series | BMC Infectious Diseases |
| spelling | doaj.art-bf33e7408f8f43b8b93809e6893a81f12023-04-23T11:10:38ZengBMCBMC Infectious Diseases1471-23342023-04-012311810.1186/s12879-023-08224-wPredicting norovirus and rotavirus resurgence in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic: a mathematical modelling studyBrooke L. Lappe0Mary E. Wikswo1Anita K. Kambhampati2Sara A. Mirza3Jacqueline E. Tate4Alicia N. M. Kraay5Ben A. Lopman6Gangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory UniversityDivision of Viral Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and PreventionDivision of Viral Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and PreventionDivision of Viral Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and PreventionDivision of Viral Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and PreventionDepartment of Kinesiology and Community Health, University of Illinois at Urbana-ChampaignGangarosa Department of Environmental Health, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory UniversityAbstract Background To reduce the burden from the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States, federal and state local governments implemented restrictions such as limitations on gatherings, restaurant dining, and travel, and recommended non-pharmaceutical interventions including physical distancing, mask-wearing, surface disinfection, and increased hand hygiene. Resulting behavioral changes impacted other infectious diseases including enteropathogens such as norovirus and rotavirus, which had fairly regular seasonal patterns prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. The study objective was to project future incidence of norovirus and rotavirus gastroenteritis as contacts resumed and other NPIs are relaxed. Methods We fitted compartmental mathematical models to pre-pandemic U.S. surveillance data (2012–2019) for norovirus and rotavirus using maximum likelihood estimation. Then, we projected incidence for 2022–2030 under scenarios where the number of contacts a person has per day varies from70%, 80%, 90%, and full resumption (100%) of pre-pandemic levels. Results We found that the population susceptibility to both viruses increased between March 2020 and November 2021. The 70–90% contact resumption scenarios led to lower incidence than observed pre-pandemic for both viruses. However, we found a greater than two-fold increase in community incidence relative to the pre-pandemic period under the 100% contact scenarios for both viruses. With rotavirus, for which population immunity is driven partially by vaccination, patterns settled into a new steady state quickly in 2022 under the 70–90% scenarios. For norovirus, for which immunity is relatively short-lasting and only acquired through infection, surged under the 100% contact scenario projection. Conclusions These results, which quantify the consequences of population susceptibility build-up, can help public health agencies prepare for potential resurgence of enteric viruses.https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-023-08224-wNorovirusRotavirusTransmissionSeasonalityMathematical modellingSurveillance |
| spellingShingle | Brooke L. Lappe Mary E. Wikswo Anita K. Kambhampati Sara A. Mirza Jacqueline E. Tate Alicia N. M. Kraay Ben A. Lopman Predicting norovirus and rotavirus resurgence in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic: a mathematical modelling study BMC Infectious Diseases Norovirus Rotavirus Transmission Seasonality Mathematical modelling Surveillance |
| title | Predicting norovirus and rotavirus resurgence in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic: a mathematical modelling study |
| title_full | Predicting norovirus and rotavirus resurgence in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic: a mathematical modelling study |
| title_fullStr | Predicting norovirus and rotavirus resurgence in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic: a mathematical modelling study |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predicting norovirus and rotavirus resurgence in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic: a mathematical modelling study |
| title_short | Predicting norovirus and rotavirus resurgence in the United States following the COVID-19 pandemic: a mathematical modelling study |
| title_sort | predicting norovirus and rotavirus resurgence in the united states following the covid 19 pandemic a mathematical modelling study |
| topic | Norovirus Rotavirus Transmission Seasonality Mathematical modelling Surveillance |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1186/s12879-023-08224-w |
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