Present and future distribution of Faidherbia albida in Cabo Verde as revealed by climatic modelling and LULC analysis
Climate change poses one of the most significant challenges to conserve biodiversity, especially in tropical dry islands, as is the case of Cabo Verde (northeast Atlantic Ocean). This archipelago has a low percentage of forest cover and hosts only seven native tree species, among them, Faidherbia al...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-03-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2023.1057852/full |
| _version_ | 1797869645812727808 |
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| author | Danilson Varela Danilson Varela Danilson Varela Danilson Varela Maria M. Romeiras Maria M. Romeiras Luís Silva Luís Silva Luís Silva |
| author_facet | Danilson Varela Danilson Varela Danilson Varela Danilson Varela Maria M. Romeiras Maria M. Romeiras Luís Silva Luís Silva Luís Silva |
| author_sort | Danilson Varela |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change poses one of the most significant challenges to conserve biodiversity, especially in tropical dry islands, as is the case of Cabo Verde (northeast Atlantic Ocean). This archipelago has a low percentage of forest cover and hosts only seven native tree species, among them, Faidherbia albida (Delile) A.Chev. (Fabaceae). Therefore, protective afforestation is extremely important in Cabo Verde, one of the most vulnerable West African countries to climate change. With this work, we aimed to estimate the current distribution and potential shifts in suitable areas for F. albida under climate change, using species distribution models (i.e., random forest, generalized linear and additive models), covering its distribution range in Cabo Verde and mainland Africa. The best model was then projected for the studied area, at two different slice times, using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Based on current bioclimatic variables, we estimated that almost two thirds of Cabo Verde’s territory is highly suitable for F. albida, which contrasts with its current occurrence. By overlaying the present habitat suitability with land use and land cover data, we concluded that habitat availability and suitability could be constrained by that factor. On average, the predicted suitable habitat for future distributions gradually decreases by 2080 under both scenarios compared with the current, with a smaller effect of RCP4.5 than of RCP8.5. Local authorities can benefit from this research and develop actions to promote sustainable reforestation in Cabo Verde, which should include native tree species that are best adapted to the local climate and could thus contribute to mitigate the effects of climate change. |
| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T00:15:55Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bf51585d604a41f9b561d0147e72897e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2296-701X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T00:15:55Z |
| publishDate | 2023-03-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution |
| spelling | doaj.art-bf51585d604a41f9b561d0147e72897e2023-03-16T05:14:40ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution2296-701X2023-03-011110.3389/fevo.2023.10578521057852Present and future distribution of Faidherbia albida in Cabo Verde as revealed by climatic modelling and LULC analysisDanilson Varela0Danilson Varela1Danilson Varela2Danilson Varela3Maria M. Romeiras4Maria M. Romeiras5Luís Silva6Luís Silva7Luís Silva8Linking Landscape, Environment, Agriculture and Food (LEAF), Associated Laboratory TERRA, Instituto Superior de Agronomia (ISA), Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, PortugalResearch Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources – Azores (CIBIO-Açores), InBIO Associate Laboratory, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade dos Açores, Vairão, PortugalNova School of Business and Economics, Carcavelos, PortugalCentro de Estudos Africanos Para Desenvolvimento e Inovação (CEADI), Assomada, Cabo VerdeLinking Landscape, Environment, Agriculture and Food (LEAF), Associated Laboratory TERRA, Instituto Superior de Agronomia (ISA), Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, PortugalCentre for Ecology, Evolution and Environmental Changes (cE3c) and CHANGE - Global Change and Sustainability Institute, Faculdade de Ciências, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisbon, PortugalResearch Centre in Biodiversity and Genetic Resources – Azores (CIBIO-Açores), InBIO Associate Laboratory, Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia, Universidade dos Açores, Vairão, PortugalBIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO, Vairão, PortugalUNESCO Chair – Land Within Sea: Biodiversity and Sustainability in Atlantic Islands, Ponta Delgada, Azores, PortugalClimate change poses one of the most significant challenges to conserve biodiversity, especially in tropical dry islands, as is the case of Cabo Verde (northeast Atlantic Ocean). This archipelago has a low percentage of forest cover and hosts only seven native tree species, among them, Faidherbia albida (Delile) A.Chev. (Fabaceae). Therefore, protective afforestation is extremely important in Cabo Verde, one of the most vulnerable West African countries to climate change. With this work, we aimed to estimate the current distribution and potential shifts in suitable areas for F. albida under climate change, using species distribution models (i.e., random forest, generalized linear and additive models), covering its distribution range in Cabo Verde and mainland Africa. The best model was then projected for the studied area, at two different slice times, using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Based on current bioclimatic variables, we estimated that almost two thirds of Cabo Verde’s territory is highly suitable for F. albida, which contrasts with its current occurrence. By overlaying the present habitat suitability with land use and land cover data, we concluded that habitat availability and suitability could be constrained by that factor. On average, the predicted suitable habitat for future distributions gradually decreases by 2080 under both scenarios compared with the current, with a smaller effect of RCP4.5 than of RCP8.5. Local authorities can benefit from this research and develop actions to promote sustainable reforestation in Cabo Verde, which should include native tree species that are best adapted to the local climate and could thus contribute to mitigate the effects of climate change.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2023.1057852/fulltropical dry islandsnative tree speciesspecies distribution modelsclimate changehabitat suitabilityCabo Verde |
| spellingShingle | Danilson Varela Danilson Varela Danilson Varela Danilson Varela Maria M. Romeiras Maria M. Romeiras Luís Silva Luís Silva Luís Silva Present and future distribution of Faidherbia albida in Cabo Verde as revealed by climatic modelling and LULC analysis Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution tropical dry islands native tree species species distribution models climate change habitat suitability Cabo Verde |
| title | Present and future distribution of Faidherbia albida in Cabo Verde as revealed by climatic modelling and LULC analysis |
| title_full | Present and future distribution of Faidherbia albida in Cabo Verde as revealed by climatic modelling and LULC analysis |
| title_fullStr | Present and future distribution of Faidherbia albida in Cabo Verde as revealed by climatic modelling and LULC analysis |
| title_full_unstemmed | Present and future distribution of Faidherbia albida in Cabo Verde as revealed by climatic modelling and LULC analysis |
| title_short | Present and future distribution of Faidherbia albida in Cabo Verde as revealed by climatic modelling and LULC analysis |
| title_sort | present and future distribution of faidherbia albida in cabo verde as revealed by climatic modelling and lulc analysis |
| topic | tropical dry islands native tree species species distribution models climate change habitat suitability Cabo Verde |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fevo.2023.1057852/full |
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