Development and evaluation of a risk prediction model for diabetes mellitus type 2 patients with vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy
ObjectiveThis study aims to develop and evaluate a non-imaging clinical data-based nomogram for predicting the risk of vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) in diabetes mellitus type 2 (T2DM) patients.MethodsBased on the baseline data of the Guangdong Shaoguan Diabetes Cohort Study conducte...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Frontiers Media S.A.
2023-08-01
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| Series: | Frontiers in Endocrinology |
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| Online Access: | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2023.1244601/full |
| _version_ | 1797737375171870720 |
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| author | Di Gong Di Gong Lyujie Fang Yixian Cai Ieng Chong Junhong Guo Zhichao Yan Xiaoli Shen Weihua Yang Jiantao Wang |
| author_facet | Di Gong Di Gong Lyujie Fang Yixian Cai Ieng Chong Junhong Guo Zhichao Yan Xiaoli Shen Weihua Yang Jiantao Wang |
| author_sort | Di Gong |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | ObjectiveThis study aims to develop and evaluate a non-imaging clinical data-based nomogram for predicting the risk of vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) in diabetes mellitus type 2 (T2DM) patients.MethodsBased on the baseline data of the Guangdong Shaoguan Diabetes Cohort Study conducted by the Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center (ZOC) in 2019, 2294 complete data of T2DM patients were randomly divided into a training set (n=1605) and a testing set (n=689). Independent risk factors were selected through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis on the training dataset, and a nomogram was constructed for predicting the risk of VTDR in T2DM patients. The model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) in the training and testing datasets to assess discrimination, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curves to assess calibration.ResultsThe results of the multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that Age (OR = 0.954, 95% CI: 0.940-0.969, p = 0.000), BMI (OR = 0.942, 95% CI: 0.902-0.984, p = 0.007), systolic blood pressure (SBP) (OR =1.014, 95% CI: 1.007-1.022, p = 0.000), diabetes duration (10-15y: OR =3.126, 95% CI: 2.087-4.682, p = 0.000; >15y: OR =3.750, 95% CI: 2.362-5.954, p = 0.000), and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1C) (OR = 1.325, 95% CI: 1.221-1.438, p = 0.000) were independent risk factors for T2DM patients with VTDR. A nomogram was constructed using these variables. The model discrimination results showed an AUC of 0.7193 for the training set and 0.6897 for the testing set. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test results showed a high consistency between the predicted and observed probabilities for both the training set (Chi-square=2.2029, P=0.9742) and the testing set (Chi-square=7.6628, P=0.4671).ConclusionThe introduction of Age, BMI, SBP, Duration, and HbA1C as variables helps to stratify the risk of T2DM patients with VTDR. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T13:28:47Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bf7c90e6fe474b40ae966325502c28e3 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 1664-2392 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T13:28:47Z |
| publishDate | 2023-08-01 |
| publisher | Frontiers Media S.A. |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Frontiers in Endocrinology |
| spelling | doaj.art-bf7c90e6fe474b40ae966325502c28e32023-08-25T03:47:28ZengFrontiers Media S.A.Frontiers in Endocrinology1664-23922023-08-011410.3389/fendo.2023.12446011244601Development and evaluation of a risk prediction model for diabetes mellitus type 2 patients with vision-threatening diabetic retinopathyDi Gong0Di Gong1Lyujie Fang2Yixian Cai3Ieng Chong4Junhong Guo5Zhichao Yan6Xiaoli Shen7Weihua Yang8Jiantao Wang9Shenzhen Eye Hospital, Jinan University, Shenzhen, Guangdong, ChinaThe First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, ChinaThe First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, ChinaThe First Affiliated Hospital of Jinan University, Jinan University, Guangzhou, Guangdong, ChinaMacau University Hospital, Macao, Macao SAR, ChinaShenzhen Eye Hospital, Jinan University, Shenzhen Eye Institute, Shenzhen, Guangdong, ChinaShenzhen Eye Hospital, Jinan University, Shenzhen Eye Institute, Shenzhen, Guangdong, ChinaShenzhen Eye Hospital, Jinan University, Shenzhen Eye Institute, Shenzhen, Guangdong, ChinaShenzhen Eye Hospital, Jinan University, Shenzhen Eye Institute, Shenzhen, Guangdong, ChinaShenzhen Eye Hospital, Jinan University, Shenzhen Eye Institute, Shenzhen, Guangdong, ChinaObjectiveThis study aims to develop and evaluate a non-imaging clinical data-based nomogram for predicting the risk of vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy (VTDR) in diabetes mellitus type 2 (T2DM) patients.MethodsBased on the baseline data of the Guangdong Shaoguan Diabetes Cohort Study conducted by the Zhongshan Ophthalmic Center (ZOC) in 2019, 2294 complete data of T2DM patients were randomly divided into a training set (n=1605) and a testing set (n=689). Independent risk factors were selected through univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis on the training dataset, and a nomogram was constructed for predicting the risk of VTDR in T2DM patients. The model was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and area under the curve (AUC) in the training and testing datasets to assess discrimination, and Hosmer-Lemeshow test and calibration curves to assess calibration.ResultsThe results of the multivariate logistic regression analysis showed that Age (OR = 0.954, 95% CI: 0.940-0.969, p = 0.000), BMI (OR = 0.942, 95% CI: 0.902-0.984, p = 0.007), systolic blood pressure (SBP) (OR =1.014, 95% CI: 1.007-1.022, p = 0.000), diabetes duration (10-15y: OR =3.126, 95% CI: 2.087-4.682, p = 0.000; >15y: OR =3.750, 95% CI: 2.362-5.954, p = 0.000), and glycated hemoglobin (HbA1C) (OR = 1.325, 95% CI: 1.221-1.438, p = 0.000) were independent risk factors for T2DM patients with VTDR. A nomogram was constructed using these variables. The model discrimination results showed an AUC of 0.7193 for the training set and 0.6897 for the testing set. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test results showed a high consistency between the predicted and observed probabilities for both the training set (Chi-square=2.2029, P=0.9742) and the testing set (Chi-square=7.6628, P=0.4671).ConclusionThe introduction of Age, BMI, SBP, Duration, and HbA1C as variables helps to stratify the risk of T2DM patients with VTDR.https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2023.1244601/fulldiabetes mellitus type 2diabetic retinopathyvision-threatening diabetic retinopathyrisk factorsprediction model |
| spellingShingle | Di Gong Di Gong Lyujie Fang Yixian Cai Ieng Chong Junhong Guo Zhichao Yan Xiaoli Shen Weihua Yang Jiantao Wang Development and evaluation of a risk prediction model for diabetes mellitus type 2 patients with vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy Frontiers in Endocrinology diabetes mellitus type 2 diabetic retinopathy vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy risk factors prediction model |
| title | Development and evaluation of a risk prediction model for diabetes mellitus type 2 patients with vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy |
| title_full | Development and evaluation of a risk prediction model for diabetes mellitus type 2 patients with vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy |
| title_fullStr | Development and evaluation of a risk prediction model for diabetes mellitus type 2 patients with vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy |
| title_full_unstemmed | Development and evaluation of a risk prediction model for diabetes mellitus type 2 patients with vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy |
| title_short | Development and evaluation of a risk prediction model for diabetes mellitus type 2 patients with vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy |
| title_sort | development and evaluation of a risk prediction model for diabetes mellitus type 2 patients with vision threatening diabetic retinopathy |
| topic | diabetes mellitus type 2 diabetic retinopathy vision-threatening diabetic retinopathy risk factors prediction model |
| url | https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fendo.2023.1244601/full |
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