Satellite-observed strong subtropical ocean warming as an early signature of global warming
Abstract Satellite observations covering the last four decades reveal an ocean warming pattern resembling the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This pattern has therefore been widely interpreted as a manifestation of natural climate variability. Here, we re-examine the observed warm...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Nature Portfolio
2023-05-01
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| Series: | Communications Earth & Environment |
| Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00839-w |
| _version_ | 1797817796216750080 |
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| author | Hu Yang Gerrit Lohmann Christian Stepanek Qiang Wang Rui Xin Huang Xiaoxu Shi Jiping Liu Dake Chen Xulong Wang Yi Zhong Qinghua Yang Ying Bao Juliane Müller |
| author_facet | Hu Yang Gerrit Lohmann Christian Stepanek Qiang Wang Rui Xin Huang Xiaoxu Shi Jiping Liu Dake Chen Xulong Wang Yi Zhong Qinghua Yang Ying Bao Juliane Müller |
| author_sort | Hu Yang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Abstract Satellite observations covering the last four decades reveal an ocean warming pattern resembling the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This pattern has therefore been widely interpreted as a manifestation of natural climate variability. Here, we re-examine the observed warming pattern and find that the predominant warming over the subtropical oceans, while mild warming or even cooling over the subpolar ocean, is dynamically consistent with the convergence and divergence of surface water. By comparison of observations, paleo-reconstructions, and model simulations, we propose that the observed warming pattern is likely a short-term transient response to the increased CO2 forcing, which only emerges during the early stage of anthropogenic warming. On centennial to millennial timescales, the subpolar ocean warming is expected to exceed the temporally dominant warming of the subtropical ocean. This delayed but amplified subpolar ocean warming has the potential to reshape the ocean-atmosphere circulation and threaten the stability of marine-terminating ice sheets. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-13T08:58:46Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bf8e3340d5d8430ba071ebfcb7b3b7ac |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2662-4435 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-13T08:58:46Z |
| publishDate | 2023-05-01 |
| publisher | Nature Portfolio |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Communications Earth & Environment |
| spelling | doaj.art-bf8e3340d5d8430ba071ebfcb7b3b7ac2023-05-28T11:28:29ZengNature PortfolioCommunications Earth & Environment2662-44352023-05-014111010.1038/s43247-023-00839-wSatellite-observed strong subtropical ocean warming as an early signature of global warmingHu Yang0Gerrit Lohmann1Christian Stepanek2Qiang Wang3Rui Xin Huang4Xiaoxu Shi5Jiping Liu6Dake Chen7Xulong Wang8Yi Zhong9Qinghua Yang10Ying Bao11Juliane Müller12Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine ResearchAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine ResearchAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine ResearchAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine ResearchWoods Hole Oceanographic InstitutionAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine ResearchSouthern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)Southern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)State Key Laboratory of Loess and Quaternary Geology, Institute of Earth Environment, Chinese Academy of SciencesCentre for Marine Magnetism, Department of Ocean Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and TechnologySouthern Marine Science and Engineering Guangdong Laboratory (Zhuhai)First Institute of Oceanography, Ministry of Natural ResourcesAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine ResearchAbstract Satellite observations covering the last four decades reveal an ocean warming pattern resembling the negative phase of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This pattern has therefore been widely interpreted as a manifestation of natural climate variability. Here, we re-examine the observed warming pattern and find that the predominant warming over the subtropical oceans, while mild warming or even cooling over the subpolar ocean, is dynamically consistent with the convergence and divergence of surface water. By comparison of observations, paleo-reconstructions, and model simulations, we propose that the observed warming pattern is likely a short-term transient response to the increased CO2 forcing, which only emerges during the early stage of anthropogenic warming. On centennial to millennial timescales, the subpolar ocean warming is expected to exceed the temporally dominant warming of the subtropical ocean. This delayed but amplified subpolar ocean warming has the potential to reshape the ocean-atmosphere circulation and threaten the stability of marine-terminating ice sheets.https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00839-w |
| spellingShingle | Hu Yang Gerrit Lohmann Christian Stepanek Qiang Wang Rui Xin Huang Xiaoxu Shi Jiping Liu Dake Chen Xulong Wang Yi Zhong Qinghua Yang Ying Bao Juliane Müller Satellite-observed strong subtropical ocean warming as an early signature of global warming Communications Earth & Environment |
| title | Satellite-observed strong subtropical ocean warming as an early signature of global warming |
| title_full | Satellite-observed strong subtropical ocean warming as an early signature of global warming |
| title_fullStr | Satellite-observed strong subtropical ocean warming as an early signature of global warming |
| title_full_unstemmed | Satellite-observed strong subtropical ocean warming as an early signature of global warming |
| title_short | Satellite-observed strong subtropical ocean warming as an early signature of global warming |
| title_sort | satellite observed strong subtropical ocean warming as an early signature of global warming |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00839-w |
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