Collective foresight and intelligence for sustainability
Non-technical summary Charting robust pathways towards more sustainable futures that ‘leave no one behind’ requires that diverse communities engage in collective foresight and intelligence exercises to better understand global systemic challenges, anticipate the emerging risks and opportunities that...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Cambridge University Press
2021-01-01
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| Series: | Global Sustainability |
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| Online Access: | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S205947982100003X/type/journal_article |
| _version_ | 1811155701831041024 |
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| author | Sylvia L. R. Wood Amy Luers Jennifer Garard Ajay Gambhir Kalpana Chaudhari Maria Ivanova Casey Cronin |
| author_facet | Sylvia L. R. Wood Amy Luers Jennifer Garard Ajay Gambhir Kalpana Chaudhari Maria Ivanova Casey Cronin |
| author_sort | Sylvia L. R. Wood |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Non-technical summary
Charting robust pathways towards more sustainable futures that ‘leave no one behind’ requires that diverse communities engage in collective foresight and intelligence exercises to better understand global systemic challenges, anticipate the emerging risks and opportunities that disruptions present, and share perspectives on how to respond and inform decision-making. We report on the recent use of an international rapid foresight survey to assess expected societal trends over the next 3 years following the COVID-19 crisis. The results illustrate the power of collective foresight approaches to provide timely, nuanced insights for decision-making across sectors and scales, particularly in times of uncertainty.
Technical summary
We present the findings of a rapid foresight survey launched in spring 2020 to draw on the collective intelligence of the global community on where the world is headed post-COVID-19. Respondents were asked to (i) assess five key societal trends in the coming 3 years, (ii) provide news headlines they both expect and hope to see, and (iii) assess the role of digital technologies during crises. Analysis of over 2000 responses from more than 90 countries revealed important regional differences in expected societal trends related to sustainability. More respondents in the Global South expected shifts towards less inequality while more respondents in the Global North expected shifts towards a smaller ecological footprint. Qualitative analysis of proposed news headlines revealed four broad themes of focus (environment, equity, health, and economy), and yielded insights into perspectives on critical drivers of change. Finally, the survey report found that the vast majority of respondents were not opposed to digital surveillance in crises. In presenting these results, we explore the value of collective foresight and intelligence exercises in providing pluralistic inputs to decision-making and in complementing more prevalent methods of forecasting.
Social media summary
Collective foresight exercises with diverse communities can help chart robust pathways to more sustainable futures.
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| first_indexed | 2024-04-10T04:38:57Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bf976148719d453baaafa43b44fe0a8e |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2059-4798 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-04-10T04:38:57Z |
| publishDate | 2021-01-01 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Global Sustainability |
| spelling | doaj.art-bf976148719d453baaafa43b44fe0a8e2023-03-09T12:43:41ZengCambridge University PressGlobal Sustainability2059-47982021-01-01410.1017/sus.2021.3Collective foresight and intelligence for sustainabilitySylvia L. R. Wood0https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2224-3890Amy Luers1Jennifer Garard2Ajay Gambhir3Kalpana Chaudhari4Maria Ivanova5Casey Cronin6Future Earth, Montreal, CanadaFuture Earth, Montreal, Canada Sustainability in the Digital Age, Montreal, CanadaFuture Earth, Montreal, Canada Sustainability in the Digital Age, Montreal, CanadaGrantham Institute, Imperial College London, London, UKShah and Anchor Kutchhi Engineering College, Institute for Sustainable Development and Research, Mumbai, IndiaUniversity of Massachusetts Boston, Center for Governance and Sustainability, Boston, USAClimateWorks Foundation, San Francisco, California, USANon-technical summary Charting robust pathways towards more sustainable futures that ‘leave no one behind’ requires that diverse communities engage in collective foresight and intelligence exercises to better understand global systemic challenges, anticipate the emerging risks and opportunities that disruptions present, and share perspectives on how to respond and inform decision-making. We report on the recent use of an international rapid foresight survey to assess expected societal trends over the next 3 years following the COVID-19 crisis. The results illustrate the power of collective foresight approaches to provide timely, nuanced insights for decision-making across sectors and scales, particularly in times of uncertainty. Technical summary We present the findings of a rapid foresight survey launched in spring 2020 to draw on the collective intelligence of the global community on where the world is headed post-COVID-19. Respondents were asked to (i) assess five key societal trends in the coming 3 years, (ii) provide news headlines they both expect and hope to see, and (iii) assess the role of digital technologies during crises. Analysis of over 2000 responses from more than 90 countries revealed important regional differences in expected societal trends related to sustainability. More respondents in the Global South expected shifts towards less inequality while more respondents in the Global North expected shifts towards a smaller ecological footprint. Qualitative analysis of proposed news headlines revealed four broad themes of focus (environment, equity, health, and economy), and yielded insights into perspectives on critical drivers of change. Finally, the survey report found that the vast majority of respondents were not opposed to digital surveillance in crises. In presenting these results, we explore the value of collective foresight and intelligence exercises in providing pluralistic inputs to decision-making and in complementing more prevalent methods of forecasting. Social media summary Collective foresight exercises with diverse communities can help chart robust pathways to more sustainable futures. https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S205947982100003X/type/journal_articlecollective intelligenceCOVID-19foresightsustainabilitysurveys |
| spellingShingle | Sylvia L. R. Wood Amy Luers Jennifer Garard Ajay Gambhir Kalpana Chaudhari Maria Ivanova Casey Cronin Collective foresight and intelligence for sustainability Global Sustainability collective intelligence COVID-19 foresight sustainability surveys |
| title | Collective foresight and intelligence for sustainability |
| title_full | Collective foresight and intelligence for sustainability |
| title_fullStr | Collective foresight and intelligence for sustainability |
| title_full_unstemmed | Collective foresight and intelligence for sustainability |
| title_short | Collective foresight and intelligence for sustainability |
| title_sort | collective foresight and intelligence for sustainability |
| topic | collective intelligence COVID-19 foresight sustainability surveys |
| url | https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S205947982100003X/type/journal_article |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sylvialrwood collectiveforesightandintelligenceforsustainability AT amyluers collectiveforesightandintelligenceforsustainability AT jennifergarard collectiveforesightandintelligenceforsustainability AT ajaygambhir collectiveforesightandintelligenceforsustainability AT kalpanachaudhari collectiveforesightandintelligenceforsustainability AT mariaivanova collectiveforesightandintelligenceforsustainability AT caseycronin collectiveforesightandintelligenceforsustainability |