Establishment risk of invasive golden mussel in a water diversion project: An assessment framework
Inter-basin water diversion projects have led to accelerated colonization of aquatic organisms, including the freshwater golden mussel (Limnoperna fortunei), exacerbating global biofouling concerns. While the influence of environmental factors on the mussel's invasion and biofouling impact has...
| Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2024-01-01
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| Series: | Environmental Science and Ecotechnology |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666498423000704 |
| _version_ | 1797400888225038336 |
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| author | Yao Yang Mengzhen Xu Xingyu Chen Jiahao Zhang Shulei Wang Jianying Zhu Xudong Fu |
| author_facet | Yao Yang Mengzhen Xu Xingyu Chen Jiahao Zhang Shulei Wang Jianying Zhu Xudong Fu |
| author_sort | Yao Yang |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Inter-basin water diversion projects have led to accelerated colonization of aquatic organisms, including the freshwater golden mussel (Limnoperna fortunei), exacerbating global biofouling concerns. While the influence of environmental factors on the mussel's invasion and biofouling impact has been studied, quantitative correlations and underlying mechanisms remain unclear, particularly in large-scale inter-basin water diversion projects with diverse hydrodynamic and environmental conditions. Here, we examine the comprehensive impact of environmental variables on the establishment risk of the golden mussel in China's 1432-km-long Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. Logistic regression and multiclass classification models were used to investigate the environmental influence on the occurrence probability and reproductive density of the golden mussel. Total nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen, water temperature, pH, and velocity were identified as crucial environmental variables affecting the biofouling risk in the project. Logistic regression analysis revealed a negative correlation between the occurrence probability of all larval stages and levels of total nitrogen and ammonia nitrogen. The multiclass classification model showed that elevated levels of total nitrogen hindered mussel reproduction, while optimal water temperature enhanced their reproductive capacity. Appropriate velocity and pH levels were crucial in maintaining moderate larval density. This research presents a quantitative analytical framework for assessing establishment risks associated with invasive mussels, and the framework is expected to enhance invasion management and mitigate biofouling issues in water diversion projects worldwide. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T02:02:08Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bfbc61e05bd34ae39166efc10981cff9 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2666-4984 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T02:02:08Z |
| publishDate | 2024-01-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Environmental Science and Ecotechnology |
| spelling | doaj.art-bfbc61e05bd34ae39166efc10981cff92023-12-08T04:46:15ZengElsevierEnvironmental Science and Ecotechnology2666-49842024-01-0117100305Establishment risk of invasive golden mussel in a water diversion project: An assessment frameworkYao Yang0Mengzhen Xu1Xingyu Chen2Jiahao Zhang3Shulei Wang4Jianying Zhu5Xudong Fu6State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; Corresponding author.State Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaChina South-to-north Water Diversion Corporation Limited, ChinaDepartment of Mathematical Sciences, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaState Key Laboratory of Hydroscience and Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, ChinaInter-basin water diversion projects have led to accelerated colonization of aquatic organisms, including the freshwater golden mussel (Limnoperna fortunei), exacerbating global biofouling concerns. While the influence of environmental factors on the mussel's invasion and biofouling impact has been studied, quantitative correlations and underlying mechanisms remain unclear, particularly in large-scale inter-basin water diversion projects with diverse hydrodynamic and environmental conditions. Here, we examine the comprehensive impact of environmental variables on the establishment risk of the golden mussel in China's 1432-km-long Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project. Logistic regression and multiclass classification models were used to investigate the environmental influence on the occurrence probability and reproductive density of the golden mussel. Total nitrogen, ammonia nitrogen, water temperature, pH, and velocity were identified as crucial environmental variables affecting the biofouling risk in the project. Logistic regression analysis revealed a negative correlation between the occurrence probability of all larval stages and levels of total nitrogen and ammonia nitrogen. The multiclass classification model showed that elevated levels of total nitrogen hindered mussel reproduction, while optimal water temperature enhanced their reproductive capacity. Appropriate velocity and pH levels were crucial in maintaining moderate larval density. This research presents a quantitative analytical framework for assessing establishment risks associated with invasive mussels, and the framework is expected to enhance invasion management and mitigate biofouling issues in water diversion projects worldwide.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666498423000704Golden musselEnvironmental variablesMulticlass classificationLogistic regressionQuantitative risk assessment |
| spellingShingle | Yao Yang Mengzhen Xu Xingyu Chen Jiahao Zhang Shulei Wang Jianying Zhu Xudong Fu Establishment risk of invasive golden mussel in a water diversion project: An assessment framework Environmental Science and Ecotechnology Golden mussel Environmental variables Multiclass classification Logistic regression Quantitative risk assessment |
| title | Establishment risk of invasive golden mussel in a water diversion project: An assessment framework |
| title_full | Establishment risk of invasive golden mussel in a water diversion project: An assessment framework |
| title_fullStr | Establishment risk of invasive golden mussel in a water diversion project: An assessment framework |
| title_full_unstemmed | Establishment risk of invasive golden mussel in a water diversion project: An assessment framework |
| title_short | Establishment risk of invasive golden mussel in a water diversion project: An assessment framework |
| title_sort | establishment risk of invasive golden mussel in a water diversion project an assessment framework |
| topic | Golden mussel Environmental variables Multiclass classification Logistic regression Quantitative risk assessment |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666498423000704 |
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