Identifying Potential Cropland Losses When Conserving 30% and 50% Earth with Different Approaches and Spatial Scales
Biodiversity conservation is the cornerstone for sustainable development. Bold conservation targets provide the last opportunities to halt the human-driven mass extinction. Recently, bold conservation targets have been proposed to protect 30% or 50% of Earth. However, little is known about its poten...
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MDPI AG
2021-07-01
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| author | Jianqiao Zhao Yue Cao Le Yu Xiaoxuan Liu Yichuan Shi Xiaoping Liu Rui Yang Peng Gong |
| author_facet | Jianqiao Zhao Yue Cao Le Yu Xiaoxuan Liu Yichuan Shi Xiaoping Liu Rui Yang Peng Gong |
| author_sort | Jianqiao Zhao |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Biodiversity conservation is the cornerstone for sustainable development. Bold conservation targets provide the last opportunities to halt the human-driven mass extinction. Recently, bold conservation targets have been proposed to protect 30% or 50% of Earth. However, little is known about its potential impacts on cropland. We identify potential cropland losses when 30% and 50% of global terrestrial area is given back to nature by 2030/2050, at three spatial scales (global, biome and country) and using two approaches (“nature-only landscapes” and “shared landscapes”). We find that different targets, applied scales and approaches will lead to different cropland losses: (1) At the global scale, it is possible to protect 50% of the Earth while having minimum cropland losses. (2) At biome scale, 0.64% and 8.54% cropland will be lost globally in 2030 and 2050 under the nature-only approach while by contrast, the shared approach substantially reduces the number of countries confronted by cropland losses, demanding only 0% and 2.59% of global cropland losses in 2030 and 2050. (3) At the national scale, the nature-only approach causes losses of 3.58% and 10.73% of global cropland in 2030 and 2050, while the shared approach requires 0.77% and 7.55% cropland in 2030 and 2050. Our results indicate that bold conservation targets could be considered, especially when adopting the shared approach, and we suggest adopting ambitious targets (protecting at least 30% by 2030) at the UN Biodiversity Conference (COP 15) to ensure a sustainable future for Earth. |
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| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-445X |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T09:34:39Z |
| publishDate | 2021-07-01 |
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| series | Land |
| spelling | doaj.art-bfc57032f1a44ef1bb714c42e9c14b562023-11-22T04:11:28ZengMDPI AGLand2073-445X2021-07-0110770410.3390/land10070704Identifying Potential Cropland Losses When Conserving 30% and 50% Earth with Different Approaches and Spatial ScalesJianqiao Zhao0Yue Cao1Le Yu2Xiaoxuan Liu3Yichuan Shi4Xiaoping Liu5Rui Yang6Peng Gong7Ministry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaInstitute for National Parks, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaMinistry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaMinistry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaConservation International, Beijing 100027, ChinaGuangdong Key Laboratory for Urbanization and Geo-simulation, School of Geography and Planning, Sun Yat-sen University, Guangzhou 510275, ChinaInstitute for National Parks, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaMinistry of Education Key Laboratory for Earth System Modeling, Department of Earth System Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, ChinaBiodiversity conservation is the cornerstone for sustainable development. Bold conservation targets provide the last opportunities to halt the human-driven mass extinction. Recently, bold conservation targets have been proposed to protect 30% or 50% of Earth. However, little is known about its potential impacts on cropland. We identify potential cropland losses when 30% and 50% of global terrestrial area is given back to nature by 2030/2050, at three spatial scales (global, biome and country) and using two approaches (“nature-only landscapes” and “shared landscapes”). We find that different targets, applied scales and approaches will lead to different cropland losses: (1) At the global scale, it is possible to protect 50% of the Earth while having minimum cropland losses. (2) At biome scale, 0.64% and 8.54% cropland will be lost globally in 2030 and 2050 under the nature-only approach while by contrast, the shared approach substantially reduces the number of countries confronted by cropland losses, demanding only 0% and 2.59% of global cropland losses in 2030 and 2050. (3) At the national scale, the nature-only approach causes losses of 3.58% and 10.73% of global cropland in 2030 and 2050, while the shared approach requires 0.77% and 7.55% cropland in 2030 and 2050. Our results indicate that bold conservation targets could be considered, especially when adopting the shared approach, and we suggest adopting ambitious targets (protecting at least 30% by 2030) at the UN Biodiversity Conference (COP 15) to ensure a sustainable future for Earth.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/7/704protected areascroplandHalf-Earthbiodiversity conservationfood security |
| spellingShingle | Jianqiao Zhao Yue Cao Le Yu Xiaoxuan Liu Yichuan Shi Xiaoping Liu Rui Yang Peng Gong Identifying Potential Cropland Losses When Conserving 30% and 50% Earth with Different Approaches and Spatial Scales Land protected areas cropland Half-Earth biodiversity conservation food security |
| title | Identifying Potential Cropland Losses When Conserving 30% and 50% Earth with Different Approaches and Spatial Scales |
| title_full | Identifying Potential Cropland Losses When Conserving 30% and 50% Earth with Different Approaches and Spatial Scales |
| title_fullStr | Identifying Potential Cropland Losses When Conserving 30% and 50% Earth with Different Approaches and Spatial Scales |
| title_full_unstemmed | Identifying Potential Cropland Losses When Conserving 30% and 50% Earth with Different Approaches and Spatial Scales |
| title_short | Identifying Potential Cropland Losses When Conserving 30% and 50% Earth with Different Approaches and Spatial Scales |
| title_sort | identifying potential cropland losses when conserving 30 and 50 earth with different approaches and spatial scales |
| topic | protected areas cropland Half-Earth biodiversity conservation food security |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/10/7/704 |
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