Simulation of the Potential Impacts of Projected Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff under CMIP6 Scenarios
Assessing the impacts of climate change and land use/land cover changes on water resources within a catchment is essential because it helps us understand how these dynamic factors affect the quantity, quality, and availability of freshwater. This knowledge is crucial for making informed decisions ab...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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MDPI AG
2023-09-01
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| Series: | Water |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/19/3421 |
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| author | Saif Haider Muhammad Umer Masood Muhammad Rashid Fahad Alshehri Chaitanya B. Pande Okan Mert Katipoğlu Romulus Costache |
| author_facet | Saif Haider Muhammad Umer Masood Muhammad Rashid Fahad Alshehri Chaitanya B. Pande Okan Mert Katipoğlu Romulus Costache |
| author_sort | Saif Haider |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Assessing the impacts of climate change and land use/land cover changes on water resources within a catchment is essential because it helps us understand how these dynamic factors affect the quantity, quality, and availability of freshwater. This knowledge is crucial for making informed decisions about water management, conservation, and adaptation strategies, especially in regions facing increasing environmental uncertainties and challenges to water resource sustainability. In Pakistan’s Kunhar River Basin (KRB), this investigation explores the potential effects of shifting land use/land cover (LULC), and climate on stream flows. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), a semi-distributed hydrological model, and the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset from multiple global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate these effects. The temperature and precipitation data were downscaled using the CMhyd software; for both shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2 and SSP5), the top-performing GCM out of four was required to produce downscaled precipitation and temperature predictions while taking future land use characteristics into account. The output from the chosen GCM indicated that by the conclusion of the 21st century, relative to the reference period (1985–2014), the study area’s average monthly precipitation, highest temperature, and lowest temperature will be increasing. Precipitation is anticipated to increase between 2015 and 2100 by 20.5% and 29.1% according to the SSP2 and SSP5 scenarios, respectively. This study’s findings, which emphasize the need for project planners and managers taking into account the effects of climate and land cover changes in their management techniques, show that climate change can have a significant impact on the changing seasons of flows in the Kunhar River basin. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-10T21:32:43Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bfc5a2a640be4572bfba8bdede6e632c |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4441 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-10T21:32:43Z |
| publishDate | 2023-09-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Water |
| spelling | doaj.art-bfc5a2a640be4572bfba8bdede6e632c2023-11-19T15:15:31ZengMDPI AGWater2073-44412023-09-011519342110.3390/w15193421Simulation of the Potential Impacts of Projected Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff under CMIP6 ScenariosSaif Haider0Muhammad Umer Masood1Muhammad Rashid2Fahad Alshehri3Chaitanya B. Pande4Okan Mert Katipoğlu5Romulus Costache6Centre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54890, PakistanCentre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54890, PakistanCentre of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology, Lahore 54890, PakistanAbdullah Alrushaid Chair for Earth Science Remote Sensing Research, Geology and Geophysics Department, College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi ArabiaAbdullah Alrushaid Chair for Earth Science Remote Sensing Research, Geology and Geophysics Department, College of Science, King Saud University, Riyadh 11451, Saudi ArabiaFaculty of Engineering and Architecture, Department of Civil Engineering, Erzincan Binali Yıldırım University, 24100 Erzincan, TurkeyResearch Institute of the University of Bucharest, 90-92 Sos. Panduri, 5th District, 050663 Bucharest, RomaniaAssessing the impacts of climate change and land use/land cover changes on water resources within a catchment is essential because it helps us understand how these dynamic factors affect the quantity, quality, and availability of freshwater. This knowledge is crucial for making informed decisions about water management, conservation, and adaptation strategies, especially in regions facing increasing environmental uncertainties and challenges to water resource sustainability. In Pakistan’s Kunhar River Basin (KRB), this investigation explores the potential effects of shifting land use/land cover (LULC), and climate on stream flows. The SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool), a semi-distributed hydrological model, and the most recent Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset from multiple global climate models (GCMs) were used to evaluate these effects. The temperature and precipitation data were downscaled using the CMhyd software; for both shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP2 and SSP5), the top-performing GCM out of four was required to produce downscaled precipitation and temperature predictions while taking future land use characteristics into account. The output from the chosen GCM indicated that by the conclusion of the 21st century, relative to the reference period (1985–2014), the study area’s average monthly precipitation, highest temperature, and lowest temperature will be increasing. Precipitation is anticipated to increase between 2015 and 2100 by 20.5% and 29.1% according to the SSP2 and SSP5 scenarios, respectively. This study’s findings, which emphasize the need for project planners and managers taking into account the effects of climate and land cover changes in their management techniques, show that climate change can have a significant impact on the changing seasons of flows in the Kunhar River basin.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/19/3421land use changeclimate changestreamflowSWATCA_MARKOVGCMs |
| spellingShingle | Saif Haider Muhammad Umer Masood Muhammad Rashid Fahad Alshehri Chaitanya B. Pande Okan Mert Katipoğlu Romulus Costache Simulation of the Potential Impacts of Projected Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff under CMIP6 Scenarios Water land use change climate change streamflow SWAT CA_MARKOV GCMs |
| title | Simulation of the Potential Impacts of Projected Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff under CMIP6 Scenarios |
| title_full | Simulation of the Potential Impacts of Projected Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff under CMIP6 Scenarios |
| title_fullStr | Simulation of the Potential Impacts of Projected Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff under CMIP6 Scenarios |
| title_full_unstemmed | Simulation of the Potential Impacts of Projected Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff under CMIP6 Scenarios |
| title_short | Simulation of the Potential Impacts of Projected Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff under CMIP6 Scenarios |
| title_sort | simulation of the potential impacts of projected climate and land use change on runoff under cmip6 scenarios |
| topic | land use change climate change streamflow SWAT CA_MARKOV GCMs |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4441/15/19/3421 |
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