Distribution of Breeding Population and Predicting Future Habitat under Climate Change of Black-Necked Crane (<i>Grus nigricollis</i> Przevalski, 1876) in Shaluli Mountains
Climate change is affecting biodiversity by altering the geographical distribution range of species, and this effect is amplified in climate-sensitive areas. Studying the geographic distribution of flagship species in response to climate change is important for the long-term conservation of species...
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MDPI AG
2022-09-01
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| Series: | Animals |
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| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/12/19/2594 |
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| author | Mingming Li Huaming Zhou Jun Bai Taxing Zhang Yuxin Liu Jianghong Ran |
| author_facet | Mingming Li Huaming Zhou Jun Bai Taxing Zhang Yuxin Liu Jianghong Ran |
| author_sort | Mingming Li |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Climate change is affecting biodiversity by altering the geographical distribution range of species, and this effect is amplified in climate-sensitive areas. Studying the geographic distribution of flagship species in response to climate change is important for the long-term conservation of species and the maintenance of regional biodiversity. Therefore, we collected field survey records from 2016 to 2020 and conducted field surveys of black-necked cranes in the Shaluli Mountains (SLLMs) in May–June and August–October 2021; 103 breeding records were acquired totally, and the geographical distribution range under the current and four future climate scenarios was modeled with the MaxEnt model to predict the impact of climate change on its distribution and habitat quality. The results showed that 152 black-necked cranes were surveyed in seven counties of SLLMs in total; the estimated number of black-necked cranes in the entire SLLMs was about 200. The currently suitable habitat area is 27,122 km<sup>2</sup>, mainly distributed in gentle meadows and wetland habitats along the lake where the Annual Mean Temperature is −1 °C and the Mean Diurnal Range (16 °C) and Precipitation Seasonality (105) are comparatively large. Furthermore, the breeding range would expand to varying degrees under future climate scenarios and showed a migration trend toward the northwest and higher elevation. Besides, as time goes by, the habitat for black-necked cranes in SLLMs would become more homogeneous and more suitable. The conservation effectiveness of the existing reserve network would keep stable with climate change, although there are large conservation gaps between protected areas, and these gaps will gradually expand over time. Overall, this study provides a preliminary understanding of the population and distribution and predicts the future distribution of black-necked cranes in the SLLMs. It also demonstrates the importance of SLLMs for protecting the central population of black-necked cranes and maintaining regional biodiversity. Therefore, we recommend long-term monitoring and conservation of the black-necked crane population and wetland resources in the region. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T22:08:46Z |
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| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T22:08:46Z |
| publishDate | 2022-09-01 |
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| series | Animals |
| spelling | doaj.art-bff334a0ea3040dbbee961fb342206532023-11-23T19:36:21ZengMDPI AGAnimals2076-26152022-09-011219259410.3390/ani12192594Distribution of Breeding Population and Predicting Future Habitat under Climate Change of Black-Necked Crane (<i>Grus nigricollis</i> Przevalski, 1876) in Shaluli MountainsMingming Li0Huaming Zhou1Jun Bai2Taxing Zhang3Yuxin Liu4Jianghong Ran5Key Laboratory of Bio-Resources and Eco-Environment of Ministry of Education, College of Life Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, ChinaGanzi Tibetan Autonomous Prefecture Forestry Science Institute, Kangding 626000, ChinaKey Laboratory of Bio-Resources and Eco-Environment of Ministry of Education, College of Life Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, ChinaKey Laboratory of Bio-Resources and Eco-Environment of Ministry of Education, College of Life Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, ChinaKey Laboratory of Bio-Resources and Eco-Environment of Ministry of Education, College of Life Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, ChinaKey Laboratory of Bio-Resources and Eco-Environment of Ministry of Education, College of Life Science, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610064, ChinaClimate change is affecting biodiversity by altering the geographical distribution range of species, and this effect is amplified in climate-sensitive areas. Studying the geographic distribution of flagship species in response to climate change is important for the long-term conservation of species and the maintenance of regional biodiversity. Therefore, we collected field survey records from 2016 to 2020 and conducted field surveys of black-necked cranes in the Shaluli Mountains (SLLMs) in May–June and August–October 2021; 103 breeding records were acquired totally, and the geographical distribution range under the current and four future climate scenarios was modeled with the MaxEnt model to predict the impact of climate change on its distribution and habitat quality. The results showed that 152 black-necked cranes were surveyed in seven counties of SLLMs in total; the estimated number of black-necked cranes in the entire SLLMs was about 200. The currently suitable habitat area is 27,122 km<sup>2</sup>, mainly distributed in gentle meadows and wetland habitats along the lake where the Annual Mean Temperature is −1 °C and the Mean Diurnal Range (16 °C) and Precipitation Seasonality (105) are comparatively large. Furthermore, the breeding range would expand to varying degrees under future climate scenarios and showed a migration trend toward the northwest and higher elevation. Besides, as time goes by, the habitat for black-necked cranes in SLLMs would become more homogeneous and more suitable. The conservation effectiveness of the existing reserve network would keep stable with climate change, although there are large conservation gaps between protected areas, and these gaps will gradually expand over time. Overall, this study provides a preliminary understanding of the population and distribution and predicts the future distribution of black-necked cranes in the SLLMs. It also demonstrates the importance of SLLMs for protecting the central population of black-necked cranes and maintaining regional biodiversity. Therefore, we recommend long-term monitoring and conservation of the black-necked crane population and wetland resources in the region.https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/12/19/2594black-necked crane (<i>Grus nigricollis</i>)climate changeflagship speciesShaluli Mountainsdistribution change |
| spellingShingle | Mingming Li Huaming Zhou Jun Bai Taxing Zhang Yuxin Liu Jianghong Ran Distribution of Breeding Population and Predicting Future Habitat under Climate Change of Black-Necked Crane (<i>Grus nigricollis</i> Przevalski, 1876) in Shaluli Mountains Animals black-necked crane (<i>Grus nigricollis</i>) climate change flagship species Shaluli Mountains distribution change |
| title | Distribution of Breeding Population and Predicting Future Habitat under Climate Change of Black-Necked Crane (<i>Grus nigricollis</i> Przevalski, 1876) in Shaluli Mountains |
| title_full | Distribution of Breeding Population and Predicting Future Habitat under Climate Change of Black-Necked Crane (<i>Grus nigricollis</i> Przevalski, 1876) in Shaluli Mountains |
| title_fullStr | Distribution of Breeding Population and Predicting Future Habitat under Climate Change of Black-Necked Crane (<i>Grus nigricollis</i> Przevalski, 1876) in Shaluli Mountains |
| title_full_unstemmed | Distribution of Breeding Population and Predicting Future Habitat under Climate Change of Black-Necked Crane (<i>Grus nigricollis</i> Przevalski, 1876) in Shaluli Mountains |
| title_short | Distribution of Breeding Population and Predicting Future Habitat under Climate Change of Black-Necked Crane (<i>Grus nigricollis</i> Przevalski, 1876) in Shaluli Mountains |
| title_sort | distribution of breeding population and predicting future habitat under climate change of black necked crane i grus nigricollis i przevalski 1876 in shaluli mountains |
| topic | black-necked crane (<i>Grus nigricollis</i>) climate change flagship species Shaluli Mountains distribution change |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2076-2615/12/19/2594 |
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