Effects of Recent Climate Change on Maize Yield in Southwest Ecuador
In recent years, evidence of recent climate change has been identified in South America, affecting agricultural production negatively. In response to this, our study employs a crop modelling approach to estimate the effects of recent climate change on maize yield in four provinces of Ecuador. One of...
| Main Authors: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
MDPI AG
2021-02-01
|
| Series: | Atmosphere |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/3/299 |
| _version_ | 1797395257526059008 |
|---|---|
| author | Gina Lopez Thomas Gaiser Frank Ewert Amit Srivastava |
| author_facet | Gina Lopez Thomas Gaiser Frank Ewert Amit Srivastava |
| author_sort | Gina Lopez |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | In recent years, evidence of recent climate change has been identified in South America, affecting agricultural production negatively. In response to this, our study employs a crop modelling approach to estimate the effects of recent climate change on maize yield in four provinces of Ecuador. One of them belongs to a semi-arid area. The trend analysis of maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and solar radiation was done for 36 years (from 1984 to 2019) using the Mann–Kendall test. Furthermore, we simulated (using the LINTUL5 model) the counterfactual maize yield under current crop management in the same time-span. During the crop growing period, results show an increasing trend in the temperature in all the four studied provinces. Los Rios and Manabi showed a decreasing trend in radiation, whereas the semi-arid Loja depicted a decreasing precipitation trend. Regarding the effects of climate change on maize yield, the semi-arid province Loja showed a more significant negative impact, followed by Manabi. The yield losses were roughly 40 kg ha<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup></semantics></math></inline-formula> and 10 kg ha<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup></semantics></math></inline-formula> per year, respectively, when 250 kg N ha<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup></semantics></math></inline-formula> is applied. The simulation results showed no effect in Guayas and Los Rios. The length of the crop growing period was significantly different in the period before and after 2002 in all provinces. In conclusion, the recent climate change impact on maize yield differs spatially and is more significant in the semi-arid regions. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-09T00:31:48Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-bff5dd09a96b414cb9343556cf1133c2 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2073-4433 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-09T00:31:48Z |
| publishDate | 2021-02-01 |
| publisher | MDPI AG |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Atmosphere |
| spelling | doaj.art-bff5dd09a96b414cb9343556cf1133c22023-12-11T18:27:14ZengMDPI AGAtmosphere2073-44332021-02-0112329910.3390/atmos12030299Effects of Recent Climate Change on Maize Yield in Southwest EcuadorGina Lopez0Thomas Gaiser1Frank Ewert2Amit Srivastava3Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, 53115 Bonn, GermanyInstitute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, 53115 Bonn, GermanyInstitute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, 53115 Bonn, GermanyInstitute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn, 53115 Bonn, GermanyIn recent years, evidence of recent climate change has been identified in South America, affecting agricultural production negatively. In response to this, our study employs a crop modelling approach to estimate the effects of recent climate change on maize yield in four provinces of Ecuador. One of them belongs to a semi-arid area. The trend analysis of maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and solar radiation was done for 36 years (from 1984 to 2019) using the Mann–Kendall test. Furthermore, we simulated (using the LINTUL5 model) the counterfactual maize yield under current crop management in the same time-span. During the crop growing period, results show an increasing trend in the temperature in all the four studied provinces. Los Rios and Manabi showed a decreasing trend in radiation, whereas the semi-arid Loja depicted a decreasing precipitation trend. Regarding the effects of climate change on maize yield, the semi-arid province Loja showed a more significant negative impact, followed by Manabi. The yield losses were roughly 40 kg ha<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup></semantics></math></inline-formula> and 10 kg ha<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup></semantics></math></inline-formula> per year, respectively, when 250 kg N ha<inline-formula><math xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" display="inline"><semantics><msup><mrow></mrow><mrow><mo>−</mo><mn>1</mn></mrow></msup></semantics></math></inline-formula> is applied. The simulation results showed no effect in Guayas and Los Rios. The length of the crop growing period was significantly different in the period before and after 2002 in all provinces. In conclusion, the recent climate change impact on maize yield differs spatially and is more significant in the semi-arid regions.https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/3/299LINTUL5climate changecrop modelmaize yieldecuadorsemi-arid |
| spellingShingle | Gina Lopez Thomas Gaiser Frank Ewert Amit Srivastava Effects of Recent Climate Change on Maize Yield in Southwest Ecuador Atmosphere LINTUL5 climate change crop model maize yield ecuador semi-arid |
| title | Effects of Recent Climate Change on Maize Yield in Southwest Ecuador |
| title_full | Effects of Recent Climate Change on Maize Yield in Southwest Ecuador |
| title_fullStr | Effects of Recent Climate Change on Maize Yield in Southwest Ecuador |
| title_full_unstemmed | Effects of Recent Climate Change on Maize Yield in Southwest Ecuador |
| title_short | Effects of Recent Climate Change on Maize Yield in Southwest Ecuador |
| title_sort | effects of recent climate change on maize yield in southwest ecuador |
| topic | LINTUL5 climate change crop model maize yield ecuador semi-arid |
| url | https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/12/3/299 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT ginalopez effectsofrecentclimatechangeonmaizeyieldinsouthwestecuador AT thomasgaiser effectsofrecentclimatechangeonmaizeyieldinsouthwestecuador AT frankewert effectsofrecentclimatechangeonmaizeyieldinsouthwestecuador AT amitsrivastava effectsofrecentclimatechangeonmaizeyieldinsouthwestecuador |