Heterogeneous impact of a lockdown on inter-municipality mobility

Without a vaccine, the fight against the spreading of the coronavirus has focused on maintaining physical distance. To study the impact of such measures on inter-municipality traffic, we analyze a mobile dataset with the daily flow of people in Portugal in March and April 2020. We find that the redu...

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Main Authors: Hygor P. M. Melo, João Henriques, Raquel Carvalho, Trivik Verma, João P. da Cruz, N. A. M. Araújo
Format: Article
Language:English
Published: American Physical Society 2021-01-01
Series:Physical Review Research
Online Access:http://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.3.013032
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author Hygor P. M. Melo
João Henriques
Raquel Carvalho
Trivik Verma
João P. da Cruz
N. A. M. Araújo
author_facet Hygor P. M. Melo
João Henriques
Raquel Carvalho
Trivik Verma
João P. da Cruz
N. A. M. Araújo
author_sort Hygor P. M. Melo
collection DOAJ
description Without a vaccine, the fight against the spreading of the coronavirus has focused on maintaining physical distance. To study the impact of such measures on inter-municipality traffic, we analyze a mobile dataset with the daily flow of people in Portugal in March and April 2020. We find that the reduction in inter-municipality traffic depends strongly on its initial outflow. In municipalities where the mobility is low, the outflow reduced by 10–20% and this decrease was independent of the population size. Whereas, for municipalities of high mobility, the reduction was a monotonic increasing function of the population size and it even exceeded 60% for the largest municipalities. As a consequence of such heterogeneities, there were significant structural changes on the most probable paths for the spreading of the virus, which must be considered when modeling the impact of control measures.
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spelling doaj.art-c009e82d4c31425a891443dba09016ce2024-04-12T17:06:18ZengAmerican Physical SocietyPhysical Review Research2643-15642021-01-013101303210.1103/PhysRevResearch.3.013032Heterogeneous impact of a lockdown on inter-municipality mobilityHygor P. M. MeloJoão HenriquesRaquel CarvalhoTrivik VermaJoão P. da CruzN. A. M. AraújoWithout a vaccine, the fight against the spreading of the coronavirus has focused on maintaining physical distance. To study the impact of such measures on inter-municipality traffic, we analyze a mobile dataset with the daily flow of people in Portugal in March and April 2020. We find that the reduction in inter-municipality traffic depends strongly on its initial outflow. In municipalities where the mobility is low, the outflow reduced by 10–20% and this decrease was independent of the population size. Whereas, for municipalities of high mobility, the reduction was a monotonic increasing function of the population size and it even exceeded 60% for the largest municipalities. As a consequence of such heterogeneities, there were significant structural changes on the most probable paths for the spreading of the virus, which must be considered when modeling the impact of control measures.http://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.3.013032
spellingShingle Hygor P. M. Melo
João Henriques
Raquel Carvalho
Trivik Verma
João P. da Cruz
N. A. M. Araújo
Heterogeneous impact of a lockdown on inter-municipality mobility
Physical Review Research
title Heterogeneous impact of a lockdown on inter-municipality mobility
title_full Heterogeneous impact of a lockdown on inter-municipality mobility
title_fullStr Heterogeneous impact of a lockdown on inter-municipality mobility
title_full_unstemmed Heterogeneous impact of a lockdown on inter-municipality mobility
title_short Heterogeneous impact of a lockdown on inter-municipality mobility
title_sort heterogeneous impact of a lockdown on inter municipality mobility
url http://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevResearch.3.013032
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