Climate change impacts on hydrometeorological and river hydrological extremes in Quito, Ecuador
Study region: Quito, Ecuador Study focus: The study region faces two water-related challenges, which, to date, have only been studied to a minimal extent: extreme precipitation events and water shortage in the dry season. This study investigates the current conditions and future changes in short-dur...
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| Format: | Article |
| Language: | English |
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Elsevier
2023-10-01
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| Series: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823002094 |
| _version_ | 1797688919763976192 |
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| author | Santiago X. Núñez Mejía Santiago Mendoza Paz Hossein Tabari Patrick Willems |
| author_facet | Santiago X. Núñez Mejía Santiago Mendoza Paz Hossein Tabari Patrick Willems |
| author_sort | Santiago X. Núñez Mejía |
| collection | DOAJ |
| description | Study region: Quito, Ecuador Study focus: The study region faces two water-related challenges, which, to date, have only been studied to a minimal extent: extreme precipitation events and water shortage in the dry season. This study investigates the current conditions and future changes in short-duration events, low river discharges and associated uncertainties. Daily precipitation and temperature projections from 19 state-of-the-art global climate models (CMIP6) and four future scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5) are downscaled with delta change and more advanced quantile perturbation methodologies. Temporal disaggregation is applied to obtain sub-daily precipitation with five extreme value distributions (EVDs). Three conceptual hydrological models are implemented to quantify the impacts on river flows. Variance decomposition is applied to estimate the uncertainty share of climate models, hydrological models, and EVDs in the results. New hydrological insights: The results indicate an intensification of extreme precipitation events, with short-duration events expected to be more intense by up to 30% in the near future (2021–2050) and up to 60% in the far future (2070–2099). The river peak discharges are projected to increase by 5–20% and 10–50% in the near and far future, respectively. On the contrary, the low river flows are projected to decrease by 0–13% and 0–30% for the respective time horizons. Overall, climate models are the dominant source of uncertainty. |
| first_indexed | 2024-03-12T01:38:29Z |
| format | Article |
| id | doaj.art-c00b0ca0e1954e6999023450b14b2d77 |
| institution | Directory Open Access Journal |
| issn | 2214-5818 |
| language | English |
| last_indexed | 2024-03-12T01:38:29Z |
| publishDate | 2023-10-01 |
| publisher | Elsevier |
| record_format | Article |
| series | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
| spelling | doaj.art-c00b0ca0e1954e6999023450b14b2d772023-09-11T04:17:17ZengElsevierJournal of Hydrology: Regional Studies2214-58182023-10-0149101522Climate change impacts on hydrometeorological and river hydrological extremes in Quito, EcuadorSantiago X. Núñez Mejía0Santiago Mendoza Paz1Hossein Tabari2Patrick Willems3Universidad del Azuay, TRACES & Faculty of Science and Technology, Cuenca, Ecuador; Department of Water Resources and Environmental Sciences, University of Cuenca, Ecuador; Correspondence to: Av.24 de Mayo 7-77, Cuenca, Ecuador.Hydraulics and Geotechnics Section, Department of Civil Engineering, KU Leuven, Leuven 3001, BelgiumFaculty of Applied Engineering - IDLab, University of Antwerp, Antwerp, Belgium; Department of Meteorological and Climate Research, Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium, Uccle, BelgiumHydraulics and Geotechnics Section, Department of Civil Engineering, KU Leuven, Leuven 3001, BelgiumStudy region: Quito, Ecuador Study focus: The study region faces two water-related challenges, which, to date, have only been studied to a minimal extent: extreme precipitation events and water shortage in the dry season. This study investigates the current conditions and future changes in short-duration events, low river discharges and associated uncertainties. Daily precipitation and temperature projections from 19 state-of-the-art global climate models (CMIP6) and four future scenarios (SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5) are downscaled with delta change and more advanced quantile perturbation methodologies. Temporal disaggregation is applied to obtain sub-daily precipitation with five extreme value distributions (EVDs). Three conceptual hydrological models are implemented to quantify the impacts on river flows. Variance decomposition is applied to estimate the uncertainty share of climate models, hydrological models, and EVDs in the results. New hydrological insights: The results indicate an intensification of extreme precipitation events, with short-duration events expected to be more intense by up to 30% in the near future (2021–2050) and up to 60% in the far future (2070–2099). The river peak discharges are projected to increase by 5–20% and 10–50% in the near and far future, respectively. On the contrary, the low river flows are projected to decrease by 0–13% and 0–30% for the respective time horizons. Overall, climate models are the dominant source of uncertainty.http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823002094Climate changeStatistical downscalingTemporal downscalingIDF curvesSub-daily precipitation extremesConceptual hydrological models |
| spellingShingle | Santiago X. Núñez Mejía Santiago Mendoza Paz Hossein Tabari Patrick Willems Climate change impacts on hydrometeorological and river hydrological extremes in Quito, Ecuador Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies Climate change Statistical downscaling Temporal downscaling IDF curves Sub-daily precipitation extremes Conceptual hydrological models |
| title | Climate change impacts on hydrometeorological and river hydrological extremes in Quito, Ecuador |
| title_full | Climate change impacts on hydrometeorological and river hydrological extremes in Quito, Ecuador |
| title_fullStr | Climate change impacts on hydrometeorological and river hydrological extremes in Quito, Ecuador |
| title_full_unstemmed | Climate change impacts on hydrometeorological and river hydrological extremes in Quito, Ecuador |
| title_short | Climate change impacts on hydrometeorological and river hydrological extremes in Quito, Ecuador |
| title_sort | climate change impacts on hydrometeorological and river hydrological extremes in quito ecuador |
| topic | Climate change Statistical downscaling Temporal downscaling IDF curves Sub-daily precipitation extremes Conceptual hydrological models |
| url | http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581823002094 |
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